USA TODAY/CNN/GALLUP POLL: Bush 49%, Kerry 49%, Nader 1% | Bush JA @ 50%

[Soul Seeker]

I think they had Sunday polls after the conventions, but normally they have around a 1000 respondents, don't they?

When are the internals released?

[Better to Be Lucky Than Good]

Here's the CNN website update on the poll. Haven't read it through entirely but it looks like a Friday, Sat, Sun survey. It would be good to do a comparison with other previous Fri, Sat, Sun Gallup surveys.

http://www.cnn.com/2004/ALLPOLITICS/10/03/gallup.poll/index.html

[Salvation]

Don't jump to such conclusions!

In the calling that we are doing in Oregon -- Bush is coming out ahead!

Don't believe the lamestream media!

[IrishGOP]

I invite Freepers who are still capable of rational thought to post comparative numbers from 2000 (same timeframe, i.e., postDebate 1)!! I KNOW THAT WE ARE IN MUCH BETTER SHAPE NOW THAN WE WERE THEN!!

Hi Dr. Deb, Gallup in 2000, the week of 10/1 thru 10/7 Bush was behind 11 points, (40- 51 gore). It moved to 45-44 gore lead the week of 10/8-10/14. After that, the rest of October Bush had anywhere from a 5-7 point lead. It did not pick up the panic after the DUI revelation. Their poll 11/1 was a 47-45 lead for Bush. Everyone needs to simmer down.

[commish]

Ping - thought ya'll might want to see my post 299 on this thread... I lost it in classic Commish fashion ;-)

[gov_bean_ counter]

What I find amusing is that Kerry feels the need to tell his supporters he won the debate. One day after this debate victory his words were being parsed, sliced and diced. He didn't like it one bit. If the Kerry camp for one minute believed the Newsweek and Gallup numbers, Kerry wouldn't be going ballistic.

[IrishGOP]

Way to go commish!!

[68-69TonkinGulfYachtClub]

Bravo Zulu!

[Hermann the Cherusker]

Yawn.

What states have moved so dramatically to cause this large a swing in the Gallup poll?

None. The 8 point lead Gallup was showing was never real anyway.

Look at the state polls. Ignore the national polls.

The race is right around 48-50 for Bush, 45-47 for Kerry.

[Jorge]

Remember, that he and he alone has got to shoulder the responsibility for our troops and the safety of this Nation. And to have a miserable little manicured twit like Kerry make accusations of a wrong war and insinuate that the President is to blame for the death of the troops etc. just really pees me off.

Same here. IMHO Kerry and those who have been attacking Bush while he is trying to protect this country are absolutely despicable.

ALL THE MORE reason I am pissed that he wasn't put in his place during the debate on Iraq. No way Kerry should have won that debate.

[West Coast Conservative]

Here are the internals:

On the issue of the economy, the poll showed all voters favoring Kerry 51 percent to Bush's 44 percent, almost exactly the opposite of what the September 24-26 poll indicated -- Bush with 51 percent and Kerry with 45 percent.

Holland said that was good news for Kerry going into the second and third debates, in which domestic issues will be highlighted.

But Holland said the expectations game has shifted -- a plurality says that Kerry will do the better job in the second debate (before the first debate, most Americans thought Bush would win).

"So the pressure is on Kerry to meet expectations. And let's not forget the good news for the White House in this poll: Bush is still seen as a stronger leader who would better deal with Iraq and terrorism," Holland said.

Bush's numbers on the Iraq and terrorism, however, have fallen since the previous poll.

He leads Kerry 51 percent to 44 percent on the question of who would do a better job in Iraq. That was down from 55 percent for Bush in the previous poll and up from 41 percent for Kerry.

On who would do a better job against terrorism, Bush had 56 percent to Kerry's 39 percent. The figures in the previous poll were 61 percent for Bush to 34 percent for Kerry.

[...]

Voters were split between the two candidates on poll questions about personal qualities, and they picked Bush as a stronger leader by a large margin.

On the question of who is better at expressing himself, Kerry outpolled Bush 54 percent to 41 percent. On who cares more about people, Kerry had 49 percent and Bush 44 percent. On the question of who is more intelligent, Kerry led Bush 48 percent to 38 percent.

On who is more honest and trustworthy, however, Bush trumped Kerry by 46 percent to 41 percent, and when asked who among the two candidates shares their values, voters chose Bush 49 percent to 45 percent for Kerry.

And when it comes to who they think is the stronger leader, those polled favored Bush by 56 percent to 37 percent for Kerry.

[Law is not justice but process]

"In the calling that we are doing in Oregon -- Bush is coming out ahead!"

Who are you calling in Oregon and why?

[Smoote]

It's a "Snap Poll" according to Gallop's site. It did not include Nader as an option and it was not even a poll asking who the respondant would "vote" for only who they were "leaning" towards.

Here is the question which they asked;

"Now, suppose that the presidential election were being held today, and it included John Kerry and John Edwards as the Democratic candidates and George W. Bush and Dick Cheney as the Republican candidates. Would you vote for – John Kerry and John Edwards, the Democrats or George W. Bush and Dick Cheney, the Republicans? As of today, do you lean more toward – Kerry and Edwards, the Democrats or Bush and Cheney, the Republicans?"

Details here - http://www.gallup.com/election2004/

[cyncooper]

You are aware the USA Today one is the same as the Gallup, right? Did I not say I'd wait and analyze it? And so I shall.

[montag813]

If one debate can cause an 8%-10% swing in voters, then there is no hope for this country. People are too dumbed down to see reality any longer.

Gallup's 11-13% "lead" for Bush never existed. It was manufactured to create a false sense of security for GOP activists, and then create out of thin air a huge, fraudulent "boost" for Kerry post-debate.

Big Sky's polls have shown a constant average lead of 3% for the President since the end of the RNC. Keep fighting, we have lots of work to do.

[don'tbedenied]

Ok now I get it, a "snap poll" with leaners counted in the cnadiates columns.
Not as bad, still not good.

[teletech]

Don't jump to such conclusions!

In the calling that we are doing in Oregon -- Bush is coming out ahead!

Don't believe the lamestream media!

What conclusions did I jump to. I talked about the trend in two indicators of how President Bush is doing, namely Tradesports and Iowa Electronis Markets. He took a BIG hit in both over the weekend. In 2000 IEM was VERY accurate in predicting which way the popular vote would go. I said I believe Dubya took a BIG hit due to this last debate. I told someone else on this thread I don't believe the President will receive 325 EV plus/minus 25. I saod I would settle for 271.

I don't think ANY of what I said jumped to ANY conclusion.

[Law is not justice but process]

Likeley voters or registered voters, and why the smaller than normal sample size?

[WillT]

Ok, I look forward to your analysis, lol

[Gator113]

Well, I just had a visit from my 4 year old grandson. I asked him to tell me who was going to win the presidential election. He said, "well grandpa, it's going to be President Bush, just like I told you last time. And then my dad is coming home" His dad is fighting in Iraq, and the little guy doesn't read the polls, so I think he knows the right answer.

For me, that works..........Bush is going to win.......BUSH IS GOING TO WIN!!!!!