I can't, of course. But this is not the only poll that showed this. Gallup showed a shift in partisan mix when Bush took the lead from Kerry. People may not respond to the question from the perspective of how they are registered. They may respond with how they lean that day.
If so, then it is an explanation. The bottom line here is that party affiliation may not be a relevant demographic. When one says Dems were "overpolled" one cannot know if that is correct because no one knows who will turn out. Also, one cannot say "overpolled" unless the results were forced in that regard.
There is another consideration. It is not clear to me that phone numbers are on registration lists.
Not a valid point, the shift to Bush was picked up by almost every poll. Zogby is an exception but he weights.
If so, then it is an explanation. The bottom line here is that party affiliation may not be a relevant demographic. When one says Dems were "overpolled" one cannot know if that is correct because no one knows who will turn out. Also, one cannot say "overpolled" unless the results were forced in that regard.
I think you missed the point, I never said dems were overpolled. Here's my opinion on polling. If a voter is registered, he is registerd with a politcal party or as an independent. That should be the second question asked. First is are you registered? Second should be, in what party? Voters can not shift parties at a whim. If they are registered, they're registered. They can and do cross over but that would show up in the polling, no?
There is another consideration. It is not clear to me that phone numbers are on registration lists.
They are not. Phone numbers are dialed randomly which presents a myriad of problems to todays pollsters.
Not a valid point, the shift to Bush was picked up by almost every poll. Zogby is an exception but he weights.
If so, then it is an explanation. The bottom line here is that party affiliation may not be a relevant demographic. When one says Dems were "overpolled" one cannot know if that is correct because no one knows who will turn out. Also, one cannot say "overpolled" unless the results were forced in that regard.
I think you missed the point, I never said dems were overpolled. Here's my opinion on polling. If a voter is registered, he is registerd with a politcal party or as an independent. That should be the second question asked. First is are you registered? Second should be, in what party? Voters can not shift parties at a whim. If they are registered, they're registered. They can and do cross over but that would show up in the polling, no?
There is another consideration. It is not clear to me that phone numbers are on registration lists.
They are not. Phone numbers are dialed randomly which presents a myriad of problems to todays pollsters.