Like you, I don't believe the polls will move significantly based on Bush's performance in the first debate - it's still his race to win. However, like many other W supporters, we're wondering what the heck was with the guy Thursday night. There is simply no way one can excuse such behavior when so much is at stake.
Bush represents a position that advocates the projection of US power to further our interests and protect our security. He probably has at least 55% support of the country in this regard.
It is incumbent that he comport himself sufficiently well in order to articulate, defend and advance this proposition. Anything less and he's failing not only himself, but the American people.
Bush brought substance and is a likable figure. Kerry brought style and fluff, and is liked by practically no one.
You are concentrated on Bush's 'performance'. I contend Americans have no expectations about Bush in this regard, they accept him as he is at this point. The only one that could be hurt by performance is Kerry, as he is still the unknown.
Let me tell you, it is a mistake to concentrate on performance over Substance at this point. What is going to hurt Kerry is speaking of a "Globel test", making Iran a new North Korea, blaming Al Quida's actions on us and numerous other suicidal statements he made.
This is where focus must shift. Bush took a soft blow, while Kerry opened the graveyard.
GWB blew it big-time ... he was poorly prepared and came across as tired and not on his game. Considering the stakes this is unconscionable on his part ... and to those on his campaign staff. The priority that day was to beat his opponent in a nationally televised debate ... basically all Dubya had to do was (at the very least) break even ... he didn't accomplish either ... he failed his staff and his supporters. I'm for Bush ... but listening to the debate made me wonder if this guy is hitting on all eight cylinders.