[OhGeorgia]

Bush did make a gaffe. He didnt respond and didnt attak Kerry.

[MNJohnnie]

Democracy Corps Poll has Bush up by two points.
http://www.democracycorps.com/reports/surveys/Democracy_Corps_September_30_2004_1st_Debate_Survey.pdf

CNN/Gallup poll shows no change after 1st Debate.


What if the Newsweek poll is nothing but propaganda? Like the Harris poll at the start of Sept that claimed "Bush's convention bounch is gone"? Funny how the bad new for Bush polls are treated as gospel by a certain sect of Freepers and the ones that show bad new for Kerry are "suspicous" Why is that?

[Right_in_Virginia]

Bush did make a gaffe. He didnt respond and didnt attak Kerry

Your opinion is noted. Thanks for sharing.

Now let it go...get out of the way...and let us win!

[Freepdonia]

Bush did make a gaffe. He didnt respond and didnt attak Kerry.

First of all, he did respond. Not to my liking, but it's not as if he let Kerry walk all over him.

Secondly, the people here saying that Bush was terrible during the debate are delusional. I came out of that debate with Kerry doing fine on the style part, but Bush had the substance. Only when I started listening to the media did I get this "he did terrible" crap.

Was Bush great? No. But he didn't say anything stupid that will follow him for the next month. Chill out, guys!

[cyncooper]

Bush did make a gaffe. He didnt respond and didnt attak Kerry.

Gosh, why are you commenting on a debate you evidently didn't watch?!

[Enlightiator]

Relax Freepers. Bush is still ahead by a good margin, this debate and the remaining will have little effect.

The latest Newsweek poll is at variance with the other polls released thus far (other polls indicate that those polled believe that Kerry won the debate, but still have Bush ahead with little change in voter preferences).

Gallup, Princeton, et.al. might say that the numbers of Republicans and Democrats included in the survey varying with surveys has no affect (due to variance in what those polled consider themselves), but don't believe it. That’s one of the reasons why the various polls vary 5- 6% with each other. The huge change in the Republican/Democrat ratio alone accounts for the apparent dramatic Newsweek poll numbers shift:

	Newsweek Poll
Reg. Voter Subgroup	10/2/04	9/11/04
Republicans	345	391
Democrats	364	300
Rep/Dem Ratio	0.95	1.30

 

The Data:

-------

Newsweek Poll First Presidential Debate Princeton Survey Research Associates International

Final Topline Results (10/2/04)

Totals

Bush/Cheney 45

Kerry Edwards 47

Nader/Camejo 2

N = 1,013 Registered Voters

Margin of error: plus or minus 4

Interviewing dates: September 30-October 2, 2004 (interviewing on 9/30 limited to the Pacific and Mountain time zones after the presidential debate concluded)

SAMPLE SIZE/MARGIN OF ERROR FOR TOTAL ADULTS: 1,144 Total adults (plus or minus 3)

SAMPLE SIZE/MARGIN OF ERROR FOR REGISTERED VOTERS SUBGROUPS: 1,013 Total Registered voters (plus or minus 4)

481 Men (plus or minus 5)

532 Women (plus or minus 5)

345 Republicans (plus or minus 6)

364 Democrats (plus or minus 6)

278 Independents (plus or minus 7)

Source:

http://www.prnewswire.com/cgi-bin/stories.pl?ACCT=104&STORY=/www/story/10-02-2004/0002263797&EDATE=

----------

Newsweek Poll Post-Labor Day Princeton Survey Research Associates International Final Topline Results (9/11/04)

Totals

Bush/Cheney 49

Kerry Edwards 43

Nader/Camejo 2

N = 1,003 Registered Voters

Margin of error: plus or minus 4

Interviewing dates: September 9-10, 2004

SAMPLE SIZE/MARGIN OF ERROR FOR TOTAL ADULTS: 1,166 Total adults (plus or minus 3)

SAMPLE SIZE/MARGIN OF ERROR FOR REGISTERED VOTERS SUBGROUPS: 1,003 Registered voters (plus or minus 4)

391 Republicans (plus or minus 6)

300 Democrats (plus or minus 7)

270 Independents (plus or minus 7)

481 Men (plus or minus 5)

 Source: http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/040911/nysa006_1.html