DRUDGE: NEWSWEEK POLL: BUSH LEAD GONE (Registered voters, not likely voters polled)

Drudge ^ | 10/02/04 | DRUDGE REPORT

[jaycost]

I see several problems with the Newsweek poll.

#1. It was conducted almost entirely on Friday and Saturday morning. It didn't poll the Eastern and Central time zones on Thursday night. Weekend polls like this usually undersample Republicans.

#2. It has more Democrats than Republicans. I am not certain about the over-under sampling of partisans. I tend to think if the poll is properly conducted, you need to look at party ID as a dependent variable, one that changes with ups and downs. Now -- are we to believe that in the last month there has been more than a 8% net switch in partisan identification? That is what the Newsweek poll from 10/2 stacks up with the Newsweek poll of 9/10.

#3. It is not problematic to me that it is 52% women and 48% men. What I find problematic is that the *men* who were surveyed support Kerry 47% to 45%. Not even Bob Dole did this poorly in 1996. This indicates that *they undersampled Republican men.* This would, incidentally, make sense in light of the fact that almost all of the sample was done on Friday. What are large swaths of Republican men doing on Friday nights in those red states in the fall? A. During the day they are working; B. During the evening they are at HIGH SCHOOL FOOTBALL GAMES!

(This, my friends, is the reason Kerry is in the lead. He has an insignificant lead among women and Independents...but he also has a similar lead among men. This is unheard of.)

Newsweek usually rushes polls out. I think they do it not so much to get a sense of the electorate, but to make news. Rember that Newsweek is the only poll with the honor of:
A. Showing Bob Dole down by 2% in 1996.
B. Showing Walter Mondale beating Reagan in 1984.

It is not because they are biased, but because they rush their polls out. The people who are sitting at home on Friday day and Friday evening are not a representative sample of the general American population.

All polls need to be filtered by common sense. This Newsweek poll is like that Pew polls from September. The first showed Bush up by >10, the second showed Bush up by 1, the third showed Bush up by >5. Now, do we really, honestly, truly think that the electorate has bounced around so much?

Similarly, with this Newsweek poll. Do we really, honestly, truly think that Bush is losing men and almost tying women? Do we really, honestly, truly think that the dynamic of the race has shifted by *eight points* since September 10?

If so, I have a bridge I'd like to sell ya! :-)

[kingattax]

thanks :)

[califamily4W]

"that was not a DEBATE but a farce..."

___________________


...and let me add if you don't mind; Kerry is quick on his feet because he is a flat out fabricator.

NEW YORK TIMES-excerpt
Domestic Security

Mr. Kerry complained that money spent on the war could be better used for police, firefighters and other security measures at home. He said the administration had put "not one nickel" into protection for vulnerable tunnels, bridges and subways.

That is an exaggeration. Even Democratic critics demanding more spending on rail and transit security and lobbyists for transit systems say the government has spent millions of dollars, while the systems have spent more than a billion dollars.

"That's why they had to close down the subway in New York when the Republican convention was there," Mr. Kerry said of the lack of security upgrades. Several stations around Madison Square Garden were indeed closed, as were nearby streets, partly to deter protesters.

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1233567/posts

[Petronski]

Not on your life. There is duplicity and treason within the Bush campaign. Nothing else would explain the over-tiredness and under-preparedness of our President. Nothing. Not all the spin of all the spiders on the internet.

That's silly.

[stands2reason]

You're confusing complacency with cynicism. This poll is causing the cynics to run him down even more. Nobody's been complacent.

[jwalsh07]

I thought it deserved its own thread so I posted one here.

[macsmind76]

Simply put Rowe and the rest of that crew simply didn't prepare Bush for that debate. Someone needs to get canned over this debacle.

[moondoggie]

I got a feeling Bush is going to blow it.

I said that twenty minutes into the debate:-(

[COEXERJ145]

samtheman thinks that Karl Rove was paid by Kerry to rig the debate.

[Jim Robinson]

Gabby has left the rodeo.

[small voice in the wilderness]

It was the Halliburton 'Hood. Cheney locked W. in a small room, put panties on his head, and proceeded to mock and hit him with wet noodles. Rove was there, too. Laughing. And counting his wad of bills.

[MarlboroRed]

It doesn't matter whether Bush won or lost--the momentum (for a lot of reasons we've discussed here) has been lost, which is another way of saying that what looked like a sure thing among the masses out there, doesn't look so certain any longer. There will be a general consensus developing that this thing is too close to call, and for the so-called undecided, they'll do what they think is fashionable, i.e., vote Kerry.

Added to this loss of momentum is the massive voter fraud program underway by the democrats, which will be good for at least two points nationally, and probably decisive in the so-called swing states.

Let's stop kidding ourselves. Get every sensible person you know to vote. Don't be obnoxious, simply explain to them (better than Bush did) what's at stake.

[Joe Miner]

Great analysis, thanks.

[vrwcagent0498]

This latest Newsweek poll is due to all of the convicted felons the Rats have managed to sign up to vote...

(and squashing the military votes)

[lowteksh]

Newsweek Partisan Shift = 11.41%!!!

I can't say it is more or less of a shift in favor of Kerry because the new poll doesn't have the breakdown of what support each candidate is getting from the other party. But it is clear that the partisan make-up of the last poll compared to this poll is dramatically different and almost certainly the source of the shift in support for Kerry.


Last Newsweek Poll (http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/040911/nysa006_1.html):

Republicans: 391 (40.73% of total sample)
Democrats: 300 (31.25% of total sample)
Independents: 270 (28.13% of total sample)
TOTAL: 960

New Newsweek Poll (http://www.prnewswire.com/cgi-bin/stories.pl?ACCT=104&STORY=/www/story/10-02-2004/0002263797&EDATE=):

Republicans: 345 (34.95% of total sample - 5.78% fewer Republicans)
Democrats: 364 (36.88% of total sample - 5.63% more Democrats)
Independents: 278 (28.17% of total sample - .04% more Indpendents)
TOTAL: 987

[visualops]

The best they could come up with was a video montage of Bush looking annoyed with a smirk here and there. As if the fact that your guy is ridiculous and annoying is a plus lol

[Petronski]

Didn't let him prep with the obvious right set of short speeches. And also made sure that Bush was over-tired.

Karl Rove prevented the President from using the right prep material and also deprived him of sleep?

[processing please hold]

It's a good thing he did. I was about to get rough with him. I had my pixie dust out, and was ready to let loose on him....lol

[cpforlife.org]

How's This?

More accurate than original, for sure.

[nonkultur]

Complacent: Contented to a fault; self-satisfied and unconcerned

Everyone seems blind sided by the media spin on the debate and not the content.

We need to write the letters to the editors about Kerry's mistakes during the debate.

The Global Test
Kerry's condescending smile
Treblenka square
weapons of mass destruction coming over the border every day.

Rathergate made everyone complacent, unconcerned about further media slant.

There is plenty of cynisism as well thanks