The paleomedia had an a priori need to have Kerry win the first debate. The election was all but over unless he did, but the paleomedia needed Kerry back in the race because: (1) they want an interesting news story to sell, and (2) they want Kerry to win. Thus, the paleomedia was going to push the idea that Kerry won hard, even if it was a tie. Only if Bush had knocked Kerry out would they have had a hard time spinning the event as a win for Kerry.
Take a look at the presidential race investment sites (e.g., Iowa Electronic Markets, TradeSports.com)--Bush peaked a couple of days before the debate. He was rising sharply, exponentially. The sharp turnaround can be explained by insiders betting heavily against Bush in the days prior to the debate--just like the Islamofascists in the know bet heavily, on our stock exchanges, against our airlines and insurance companies just prior to 9-11-01. What information could have been available to insiders? Several have speculated on FR that the Kerry campaign could have been provided with the questions before the debate. I think a paleomedia cabal conspiring to spin the debate as a Kerry win could easily have caused the sudden pre-debate breakdown in Bush shares.