Neither side has kicked the others' butts. Both have basically punched their way to a draw, so far. Kerry looks slightly the more commanding, according to some online debate scoring sites, but again, Bush only needs to not lose badly to basically win it.
If this was the only debate. Bush needs to take the lead in the next debate. He can't listen to Kerry's lies. He needs to point out that Kerry is a liar (tactfully) on whotever the issue is and then take the lead with his response. kerry just spewed too much misinformation and lies for Bush to debate them.