The "surprises" (Rove was talking about) were delivering some states that they were not expected to win. That was the inference.
Oh man, you are no fun!
As much fun as all this speculation is, THIS was what I heard as well.
And Kerry "urinating on the flag" is bunk. Soon after a caller to Sean's show said this, Corsi (Swift Vet O'Neill's co-author) called the show to say this was not true, that the Swiftees had nothing on this at all, and that they wanted to disavow any connection between the Swiftees and this rumor.
Not that it wouldn't be devastatingly delicious and wholly in character for sKerry, of course.