.....If the Bush lead is larger for "registered" than for "likely" then there are Bush folks out there who've decided not to bother voting. Don't get complacement, people. It doesn't count unless you actually vote and we've got dead people and furners to outvote.....
As I am led to believe, the pollsters determine whether a respondent is a likely voter by asking a series of question not specifically related to the respondent's candidate preference. I surmise that the questions go to the issue of how fired up he is, how determined to get to the polls he is no matter what the obstacle.
My sense is that the Kerry/Edwards voter is more emotionally invested in this election than the Bush voter. This is reflected in his typical answer to the likely voter questions. Therefore, you see better numbers for Kerry in the likely voter count.
And it makes sense to some degree. At considerable risk to alienating moderate voters, the Kerry campaign has said many reckless things intended to fire up its "base." It is fired up and armed for bear. We cannot be complacent.
The biggest risk to the Bush campaign at this moment is turn-out. The Left will turn out in force, one can count on that. We need to bring out our vote as well or the current lead in the polls will mean nothing on election day.
The biggest problem is trun out. I agree. But look at the christian vote. About 4 million of them did not vote in 2k becuase of the last minute DUI charge.
They will show up this year in DROVES. Look at what judges are doing up in Mass and the 11th circuit. Lots of folks know that the next president is going to appoint judges to the SCOTUS.