If Burr was down 3% before the Republican National Convention, then he's probably ahead right about now. Don't you think?
Nah, I think it depends how you treat the leaners. There are a lot of 'undecideds' in this poll and I bet they're mostly leaning to Bowles, and that should count for something, 'cause even if they're soft Burr's still going to have to win them over, and Bowles is working those folks hard. It might be two weeks before the election before we see even one non-partisan poll with Burr in the lead. The Cleland-Chambliss race (which I think this resembles) showed Cleland ahead until the week before the vote, and only some of the final polls showed Chambliss in the lead.