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Ivan and all the rest of the 4 am news...Tropical Depression Ivan Advisory Number 60

Statement as of 5:00 am EDT on September 17, 2004

...Tropical Depression Ivan near the Alabama...Georgia...and
Tennessee border...
Flash flood warnings are in effect for eastern portions of
Tennessee...north central Georgia...and northeast and north
central Alabama
Flash flood watches are in effect for southern and central
Appalachians from portions of eastern and central
Tennessee...central and western South Carolina... central and
western North Carolina...eastern Kentucky...Virginia...West
Virginia...Maryland...portions of new jersy...Pennsylvania...and
southeastern Ohio.
At 5 am EDT...09z...the center of Tropical Depression Ivan was
near latitude 34.9 north longitude 84.9 west or near Chattanooga
Tennessee. Maximum sustained winds are 20 mph with some higher
gusts. Minimum central pressure is 994 mb or 29.35 inches. Ivan
is moving northeasterly at approximately 10 mph. Ivan is forecast
to move northeast to eastern Tennessee by morning then move to the
east-northeast to southwestern Virginia by Friday evening. By
Saturday morning the low is forecast to move to the central
Virginia/North Carolina border where it should continue to weaken.
Selected 36 hour rainfall amounts in inches through 2 am EDT.
Location storm total
Alabama...
Troy 6.43
Dothan 5.79
Montgomery 5.28
mobile 5.07
Pinson 4.59
Anniston 4.48
Georgia...
Atlanta 4.93
Athens 3.57
Gainesville 3.16
Mississippi...
Columbus 2.78
Tennessee...
Chattanooga 5.63
Crossville 3.69
Knoxville 1.65
Nashville 1.45
Bristol 1.12
North Carolina...
Asheville 3.76
South Carolina...
Anderson 1.51
Kentucky...
London 1.32
Jackson 0.78
Additional rainfall amounts of 4-7 inches with isolated heavier
amounts can be expected during the next 24 hour period Manly to
the north of the low.
Repeating the 5 am EDT position...09z...Tropical Depression Ivan
was located near latitude 34.9 north longitude 84.9 west...minimum
central pressure is 994 mb or 29.35 inches.
The next advisory on Tropical Depression Ivan will be issued by
the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center at 11 am EDT. Refer to
statements issued by local weather offices for further information
concerning this system.
Ziegenfelder
$$

Tropical Storm Jeanne Advisory Number 15

Statement as of 5:00 am AST on September 17, 2004

...Jeanne still drifting over northern Hispaniola...a little bit
weaker...

a Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for the island of
Hispaniola from le mole St Nicholas Haiti eastward to Santo
Domingo.

A Hurricane Warning remains in effect for the southeastern
Bahamas...including the Acklins...Crooked Island...the
Inaguas...Mayaguana...and the Ragged Islands...as well as for the
Turks and Caicos Islands.

A Hurricane Watch remains in effect for the central Bahamas...
including Cat Island...the Exumas...Long Island...Rum Cay...and San
Salvador.

Interests in the northwestern Bahamas should monitor the progress of
Jeanne.

Data from a reconnaissance plane indicate that at 5 am AST...0900z
...The center of Tropical Storm Jeanne was still inland centered
near latitude 19.5 north...longitude 70.1 west or about 70 miles
...115 km...north of Santo Domingo in the Dominican Republic.

Jeanne has been moving litle during the past few hours but is
expected to resume a west-northwest track near 6 mph...9 km/hr
later today.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 65 mph...100
km/hr...in small area to the north of the center with higher gusts.
Some additional weakening is expected while the cyclone interacts
with Hispaniola but could regain hurricane status during the next
day or two.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 70 miles...110 km
from the center.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb...29.29 inches.

Storm surge flooding of 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels...
along with large and dangerous battering waves...can be expected
along the north coast of the Dominican Republic today.

Rainfall accumulations of 9 to 13 inches...with isolated higher
amounts...can be expected over the Dominican Republic. These rains
could cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides. A
rainband trailing Jeanne is located just to the south and southeast
of Puerto Rico and it has the potential to produce additional
rainfall accumulations of 5 to 10 inches...locally higher...over
portions of that island.

Isolated tornadoes are possible over Puerto Rico and the Dominican
Republic tonight.

Repeating the 5 am AST position...19.5 N... 70.1 W. Movement
toward...west-northwest near 6 mph. Maximum sustained
winds... 65 mph. Minimum central pressure... 992 mb.

For storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your local weather office.

An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane
Center at 8 am AST followed by the next complete advisory at 11 am
AST.

Forecaster Avila

Tropical Storm Jeanne Discussion Number 15

Statement as of 5:00 am EDT on September 17, 2004

because the center is inland near the north coast of Hispaniola...
the reconnaissance plane did not penetrate the eye feature but it
made a radar fix instead. The crew reported that the eye was
circular and roughly 15 N mi in diameter. Satellite images after
the eclipse suggest that Jeanne is not as strong as a few hours ago
since the eye feature can not longer be observed and convection has
weakened. This weakening due to interaction with land was
anticipated and in fact...it is kind of surprising that Jeanne has
kept such a well-defined cloud pattern after being over land for a
about a day. Initial intensity has been adjusted down to 55 knots
based on a Max wind from the recon of 63 knots. It appears that
Jeanne will be interacting with Hispaniola for 12 more hours and if
survives...it could regain hurricane status as indicated in the
official forecast. It is good to point out that...historically...
not many tropical cyclones survive the path across the high terrain
of Hispaniola.
The tropical cyclone has been drifting between the west and
west-northwest during the past few hours. A subtropical ridge to
the north will likely steer Jeanne toward the west-northwest about
5 to 10 knots during the next 24 to 36 hours. Thereafter...a strong
trough located over the eastern United States and partially
associated with Ivan...will force Jeanne to move toward the
northwest or even north-northwest. In 4 or 5 days...the track
forecast becomes highly uncertain. Most of the global models
indicate that the trough will become replaced by a rather strong
high pressure system which eventually would force Jeanne westward.
This is basically the solution unanimously provided by the
dynamical models and it is indicated in the official forecast.
It is too early to mention what portion of the southeast U.S. Coast
may be threatened but long range guidance suggests a high risk all
the way from Florida to the Carolinas.

Forecaster Avila

forecast positions and Max winds

initial 17/0900z 19.5n 70.1w 55 kt
12hr VT 17/1800z 20.0n 70.9w 55 kt
24hr VT 18/0600z 21.3n 72.5w 65 kt
36hr VT 18/1800z 23.0n 74.0w 70 kt
48hr VT 19/0600z 25.0n 75.0w 75 kt
72hr VT 20/0600z 27.0n 76.0w 80 kt
96hr VT 21/0600z 28.5n 77.0w 85 kt
120hr VT 22/0600z 29.5n 80.0w 85 kt

$$

Tropical Storm Karl Advisory Number 3

Statement as of 5:00 am AST on September 17, 2004

...Karl getting stronger...

at 5 am AST...0900z...the center of Tropical Storm Karl was located
near latitude 11.5 north... longitude 35.3 west or about 820
miles...1320 km... west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands.

Karl is moving toward the west near 12 mph ...19 km/hr. A motion to
the west or west-northwest is expected...with a gradual decrease in
forward speed...during the next 24 hours.
Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph...100 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Karl has been getting stronger during the evening and may
become a hurricane later today or early tomorrow.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 60 miles
... 95 km from the center.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb...29.35 inches.

Repeating the 5 am AST position...11.5 N... 35.3 W. Movement
toward...west near 12 mph. Maximum sustained
winds... 65 mph. Minimum central pressure... 994 mb.

The next advisory will be issued by the National
Hurricane Center at 11 am AST.

Forecaster Jarvinen

Tropical Storm Karl Discussion Number 3

Statement as of 5:00 am EDT on September 17, 2004

infrared satellite imagery indicates that Karl is strengthening
rather quickly. The system has a CDO feature near the center and a
nice band wrapping around from the west side into the CDO. There
is superb outflow toward the west and north. Also...the SSTs at
these latitudes reach their maximum values in mid-September.
Dvorak intensity estimates are 55 kt from both TAFB and SAB. An
objective ODT calculated a 77 kt wind speed. The sum of this
information is the basis for bringing the system up to 55 kts.

The initial motion is 275/14. Almost nothing has changed since the
last package. NHC model guidance remains in excellent agreement on
a general west to west-northwestward motion around the southern
periphery of the strong subtropical ridge to the north for the next
48 hours. After that...a deep mid-latitude trough is forecast by
all of the models to dig southward...to varying degrees...and
weaken the ridge to the northwest of Karl. This allows the cyclone
to gradually turn northwestward and eventually northward. The
official track is essentially an update to the previous official
forecast...and remains close to the NHC model consensus.

The GFDL intensity forecast as well as ships want to make the system
a hurricane rather quickly and intensify it to a major hurricane in
about 72 hours. The intensity forecast is a blend of these two
with the ships forecast weighted in the early going...thus making
the system a hurricane in about 12 hours.

Forecaster Jarvinen

forecast positions and Max winds

initial 17/0900z 11.5n 35.3w 55 kt
12hr VT 17/1800z 11.8n 36.8w 65 kt
24hr VT 18/0600z 12.2n 38.8w 75 kt
36hr VT 18/1800z 12.8n 40.6w 85 kt
48hr VT 19/0600z 13.7n 42.2w 95 kt
72hr VT 20/0600z 16.2n 44.8w 105 kt
96hr VT 21/0600z 19.3n 46.3w 115 kt
120hr VT 22/0600z 23.0n 47.0w 115 kt