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To: ken5050

Off the top of my head this is how I would approach the problem.

Storm surge is a complex multivariate problem. Variables which effect its computation and modeling include: topology of the shoreline, topology of the seafloor gradients and inflexion points, air pressure, storm geometry (radius, distribution of wind velocities over the radii, velocity of rotation), storm velocity, tide levels, basin size, water currents, wave heights, and wind current distributions.

As a simple rule of thumb for Texan coast hurricanes, a storm with about 90 mph wind velocity, with 20 ft wave heights 100 miles out in the gulf might produce a storm surge of about 5 feet upon hitting land.

Other rules of thumb include one centimeter of storm surge for every millibar in reduced barometric pressure.

People should not be decieved by the wind velocities and relative comparisons they identify those wind speeds with during normal storms of less than 50mph winds/gusts.

Most structures built on the coast for hurricane codes may be designed for 100 mph winds or roughly 25 lbs/SF of pressure against an exterior wall. Inland structures are frequently built for about 80 mph winds or about 16 lbs/SF pressure from wind loads. Structurally, the design process typically multiplies the surface area of a building times that wind load, then multiplies that total times the height of the building 'center of mass' (centroid more accurately) to obtain a total moment for the design. The foundation of the structure is frequently designed to include any soil over the concrete foundation combined with the foundation to provide an overturning moment.

When posed with large winds, the wind forces vary proportionally with the square of the wind velocity. That means a 160mph wind doesn't merely double the wind forces' load on a structure from 80 mph, it quadruples the forces.

The forces of 70mph winds quadruple from 45 mph winds. Likewise they quadruple again to 135 mph.

Additional problems arise in that most structures, signs utilities, concrete sidewalks, you name it,,..really aren't deigned for much over 100mph (some specific designs might get designed to 120, but whether or not construction actually places them that rigorously is rarely tested, high rises for example usually get designed for higher wind loads).

For example, the increased water flows from storm water, rain, surf, greatly erodes soil conditions. Typically during hurricanes, grounds become saturated with water and the structural properties of the soil can change. Couple this with simple erosion where soil is physically removed, many designed structures might not even have the strength during storm conditions to remain intact in lessor wind loads.

Since these conditions aren't normal, they are rarely tested,..when they are, failures are expected as 'acts of God' and frequently lessons are too costly to find or redesign to overcome.

Additionally, people tend to tie things down to structures and previous design assumptions might not be obeyed by actual loading conditions. For example, somebody designs a signpost to withstand 125 mph winds, you get 100 mph winds and somebody ties down a trailer bewtween two signs,..the trailer might rip out the two signs along with the trailer flying,...or debris, not calculated for the impulse it renders when it strikes the signs, takes out everything that is tied together and the whole mess goes flying to strike something else.

Bottom line, is if you anticipate a large storm over 90mph winds,..don't hang around. There might not be anything to protect you from the elements.


173 posted on 09/15/2004 9:35:34 PM PDT by Cvengr (;^))
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To: Cvengr

How many died when Galviston had that big hurricane around 1900?


177 posted on 09/15/2004 9:39:05 PM PDT by eternity (From here to...)
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To: Cvengr
Since these conditions aren't normal, they are rarely tested,..when they are, failures are expected as 'acts of God' and frequently lessons are too costly to find or redesign to overcome.

Thanks for your explanation!

577 posted on 09/16/2004 6:51:11 AM PDT by Chemist_Geek ("Drill, R&D, and conserve" should be our watchwords! Energy independence for America!)
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