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Hurricane Ivan -- Wednesday 9/15
NWS, NHC, various | 9/15/2004

Posted on 09/14/2004 10:41:58 PM PDT by lainie

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To: commish

Yes, that's right,that's what WLOX said. Maybe it'll drop to cat 3 before it hits wherever it goes.


1,641 posted on 09/15/2004 7:45:02 PM PDT by mrsmel
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To: Hunble

Do you have any photo examples of past hurricanes that you could show us to demonstrate the principle?


1,642 posted on 09/15/2004 7:45:34 PM PDT by Dog Gone
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To: commish
"If you look at the current radar, there is a huge hole just SW of the eye -- a large pocket of dry air just of the edge of LA."

If you happen to be seeing the same radar as Fox here, The weather guy said that is not real. He said the radar isn't picking up the other side because its too far out.

That may be what your talking about, or not. When I saw it and thought the same thing, then he pointed that out. fyi

1,643 posted on 09/15/2004 7:47:22 PM PDT by No Blue States
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To: AmericanMade1776

Catty Kelley is sooooo yesterday. The MSM has been dragging her around their circuits with great relunctance. I think they are afraid of her coughing up a hairball on their set.


1,644 posted on 09/15/2004 7:48:18 PM PDT by Conservababe (Kerry, you said to "bring it on". The vets did. And now you threaten to sue them. Wimp!)
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To: Dog Gone

Mobile FD Station 24's rollup door just flew off.


1,645 posted on 09/15/2004 7:48:36 PM PDT by BurbankKarl
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To: alancarp
Pensacola Civic Center (and Hurricane Shelter) is now flooding... with 2,000 people inside.

OMG!

1,646 posted on 09/15/2004 7:49:55 PM PDT by mhking
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To: BurbankKarl

Powerlines falling in Mobile....FD worry about ladder truck snagging it.


1,647 posted on 09/15/2004 7:50:05 PM PDT by BurbankKarl
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To: No Blue States

Looking at Mobile Long range ... sure looks like it opened up .. was showing well then the hole appeared and opened up.


1,648 posted on 09/15/2004 7:50:26 PM PDT by commish (Freedom Tastes Sweetest to Those Who Have Fought to Preserve It)
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To: Hunble

Gulf Breeze is essentially Pensacola. It's on the way to the beaches east of Pensacola Bay.


1,649 posted on 09/15/2004 7:50:59 PM PDT by Tall_Texan (Let's REALLY Split The Country! (http://righteverytime3.blogspot.com))
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To: alancarp

what? where is the shelter, at the beach?


1,650 posted on 09/15/2004 7:51:32 PM PDT by oceanview
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To: Conservababe

heh, heh...


1,651 posted on 09/15/2004 7:51:46 PM PDT by AmericanMade1776 ((John Kerry is now in full retreat))
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To: Types_with_Fist

LOL, thanks. So does is Ron Reagan a dork?


1,652 posted on 09/15/2004 7:51:52 PM PDT by Conservababe (Kerry, you said to "bring it on". The vets did. And now you threaten to sue them. Wimp!)
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To: oceanview
Hurricane Ivan Advisory Number 55
Statement as of 10:00 PM CDT on September 15, 2004

...Extremely dangerous Hurricane Ivan coming closer to the northern
Gulf Coast...strong winds already moving onshore...

A Hurricane Warning is in effect from Grand Isle Louisiana to
Apalachicola Florida...including the greater New Orleans area and
Lake Pontchartrain.  A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane
conditions are expected within the warning area...generally within
the next 24 hours.  Preparations to protect life and property
should be rushed to completion throughout the entire warning area.

 
A Hurricane Watch remains in effect from Morgan City Louisiana to
west of Grand Isle.

 
A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect from Morgan City to west
of Grand Isle...and from east of Apalachicola to Yankeetown
Florida.

 
At 10 PM CDT...0300z...the large eye of Hurricane Ivan was centered
near latitude 29.3 north... longitude 88.1 west or about 65 miles
south of the Alabama coastline.

Ivan is moving slightly east of north near 12 mph...and this motion
is expected to continue for the next 24 hours.  On the forecast
track...the center of the hurricane will reach the coast early on
Thursday.

 
Maximum sustained winds are near 135 mph...with higher gusts. Some
fluctuations in intensity are possible prior to landfall...but Ivan
is expected to make landfall as a major hurricane...category three
or higher.  Occupants of high-rise buildings within the Hurricane
Warning area can expect higher winds than those experienced at the
surface...about one Saffir-Simpson category higher at the top of a
30-story building.  After landfall... hurricane force winds could
spread inland up to about 150 miles near the path of the center.

 
People are strongly advised not to venture out from shelter during
the calm conditions of the eye...as winds will increase rapidly
with little or no warning when the eye passes.

 
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 105 miles from the
center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up
to 290 miles.  The Dauphin Island C-man station reported sustained
winds of 54 mph with a gust to 83 mph...and Pensacola Naval Air
Station reported sustained winds of 51 mph with a gust to 68 mph.

The latest minimum central pressure measured by a NOAA hurricane
hunter aircraft was  933 mb...27.55 inches.

 
Coastal storm surge flooding of 10 to 16 feet above normal tide
levels...along with large and dangerous battering waves...can be
expected near and to the east of where the center makes landfall.
Lesser...but still significant surge values will be experienced
where onshore flow occurs west of the center.

 
Dangerous surf conditions...including rip currents...are likely
elsewhere along the Florida Gulf Coast.

 
Rainfall accumulations of 10 to 15 inches...with isolated higher
amounts...can be expected in association with Ivan.

 
Tornadoes are possible over the next 24 hours in southern Alabama...
the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend area...and southwestern Georgia.  

Repeating the 10 PM CDT position...29.3 N... 88.1 W. Movement
toward...north near 12 mph. Maximum sustained winds...135 mph.
Minimum central pressure... 933 mb.

For storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your local weather office.

 
Intermediate advisories will be issued by the National Hurricane
Center at midnight CDT and 2 am CDT followed by the next complete
advisory at 4 am CDT.

Forecaster Pasch

 
$$



1,653 posted on 09/15/2004 7:52:01 PM PDT by mhking
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To: alancarp

My goodness! This is not good.

I have 2 grandkids in Pensacola. Don't know if they evacuated. They live in a trailer/apartment on E. Johnson Avenue.

Does anyone know what's happening in that neighborhood?


1,654 posted on 09/15/2004 7:52:09 PM PDT by Palladin (Proud to be a FReeper!)
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To: No Blue States
"If you happen to be seeing the same radar as Fox here, The weather guy said that is not real. He said the radar isn't picking up the other side because its too far out."

That's called "attenuation" and it's caused by the very heavy rain between the radar site and that area of the storm.

That being said, I'm not sure if that's what's happening. I use a radar program called Storm Lab, and I'm watching the loop from New Orleans (Mobile is messed up appearently) and it's showing the "dry area". If I could find a working radar from a different site then I could tell if it's attenuation or an actual dry slot.
1,655 posted on 09/15/2004 7:53:40 PM PDT by TruBluKentuckian
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To: alancarp
FOX NEWS - Pensacola Civic Center (and Hurricane Shelter) is now flooding... with 2,000 people inside.

This sounded like a bad idea when I heard it was being used as a refuge center. It is WAY too close to the water's edge. Prayers for all those inside.

1,656 posted on 09/15/2004 7:53:46 PM PDT by myprecious
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To: BurbankKarl

Memorial Hospital in Biloxi just lost part of their roof and an awning.


1,657 posted on 09/15/2004 7:54:15 PM PDT by mrsmel
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To: mrsmel

Hoo boy, here we go.


1,658 posted on 09/15/2004 7:55:59 PM PDT by GOP_1900AD (Stomping on "PC," destroying the Left, and smoking out faux "conservatives" - Right makes right!)
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To: oceanview

Pensacola coliseum is right on the bay, less than 100 feet from the water. Impressive structure, but horrible locations for a shelter


1,659 posted on 09/15/2004 7:56:18 PM PDT by commish (Freedom Tastes Sweetest to Those Who Have Fought to Preserve It)
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To: Palladin

Palladin....Hope is all is okay with your Grandkids


1,660 posted on 09/15/2004 7:56:31 PM PDT by AmericanMade1776 ((John Kerry is now in full retreat))
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