The first part of what you're asking is "how close are they to the flash point"? Hard to say. They're a bit more volatile than, say, the phlegmatic Belgians and when one doesn't know exactly where the point is to begin with...
The second part of your question is also a good one. But the one sense I have of them is that they're quite fed up with theocracies; that they won't fall into socialism or other traps is another matter...
More specifically: are they interested in change that would be compatible with American aims of a peaceful region? I ask because we have some support in Iraq but not enough to call the atmosphere in the days before our invasion verging anywhere near a "supportive" flashpoint.
But the one sense I have of them is that they're quite fed up with theocracies;
That's encouraging. But I'd like some evidence.