Replies

FLASHBACK--I always turn back to this article again and again for the mirror it appears to offer into al qaeda and its goals:

***

GLOBAL JIHAD AND THE UNITED STATES:
INTERPRETATION OF THE NEW WORLD ORDER OF USAMA BIN LADIN

By Reuven Paz

AL-QA`IDAH'S INTERPRETERS

One of the interesting phenomena related to Al-Qa`idah and the culture of global Jihad since the September 11th attacks and the global war against Islamist terrorism led by the United States, is the emergence of a group of interpreters of Usama bin Ladin, Tanzim Qa`idat al-Jihad, and of the nature of the war between radical Islam and the West. These interpreters, primarily Saudi, Yemeni, and Egyptian scholars and intellectuals, have published, throughout the past year, dozens of articles on Islamist web sites and in on-line magazines. Their articles are widely distributed and circulated throughout numerous Islamist Internet forums.

The numerous responses to them provide ample evidence of their popularity. In recent months, some of them have opened their own web sites. Amongst the more famous of these scholars are Abu Ayman al-Hilali, Abu Sa`ad al-`Ameli, Lewis Atiyyat Allah, and Abu `Ubayd al-Qurashi.

These popular scholars are part of a bigger group of well-known clerics, primarily Saudis from the Saudi Islamist opposition movement known in Arabic as the `Ulama' al-sahwah (Clerics of the resurgence), who serve as the backbone of the support for the ideology and doctrines of the culture of global Jihad and Al-Qa`idah. But, if the contribution of the clerics lies in supporting and developing these doctrines, the importance of the "interpreters" lies in spreading the political messages of the global Jihad throughout the Arab and Muslim world, and in promoting and encouraging the radical Muslim youth onwards towards further struggle and more anti-Western and anti-Jewish sentiments. Part of their articles could be viewed in the West as disinformation or psychological warfare.

Yet, serious research of the phenomenon of the global Jihad and their radical Jihadi Salafist doctrines, as well as Al-Qa`idah's policies, should not ignore them.

Another example of such "interpretations" are several dozen unsigned articles published in the past year by the Center for Islamic Study and Research (Markaz al-Dirasat wal-Buhuth al-Islamiyyah). The center is regarded by many observers and in the intelligence communities as one of the official means of propaganda for al-Qa`idah, and accurately reflects the Jihadi-Salafist doctrines of the culture of global Jihad. The fact that many of the reports and articles published by the center are unsigned gives them credibility as the authentic views of the organization or front of al-Qa`idah, and not as just the individual views of its supporters.

This phenomenon is interesting and serves the group and its supporters and adherents very well. A good example of such interpretations, and one that might have practical implications, was an article published by the center in August 2002, about future scenarios of the conflict between al-Qa`idah and the United States. (1) The article talks, among different scenarios proposed, about: "A series of events in various sensitive places over the world, either planned by Al-Qa`idah or not, prior to the attack against the United States." One might conclude that the series of terrorist attacks in October-November 2002 - Bali, Kuwait, the French oil tanker in Yemen, Mombassa, and the theatre in Moscow, in addition to the arrest of suspects in London and Germany, are, according to this scenario, a prelude to another major attack on American soil.

One of the more popular interpreters of al-Qa`idah is Lewis Atiyyat Allah, who is well known in the circles of the supporters of the culture of global Jihad in the Arab and Muslim world, and has his own web site as well -- http://www.yalewis.com. During the past year his articles and views were sometimes controversial, because his attacks on the Saudi government and the Saudi Islamic establishment were very severe. A good example of such an attack was an article he published on November 4th, 2002, entitled "Allah will curse those people, and the cursers will curse them too." (2) This was an extraordinary attack on the Saudi Mufti and the Saudi Islamic establishment for their support of the ruling royal family, whom he called "A group of hypocrites, drunks, and effeminates...that wish to turn Saudi Arabia into a feudal land of slaves they own...and who are loyal to the Jewish and Christian enemies of Allah."

THE NEW WORLD ORDER OF BIN LADIN

On November 30th, 2002, Atiyyat Allah published an interesting article, which was then circulated on several Islamist web sites, including his own, entitled: "The New World Order as written by Usama bin Ladin."(3) The article is an attempt to review the development of Al-Qa`idah, the culture of global Jihad and, in large part, their future, as if bin Ladin himself was sketching his thoughts. The article, written in the first person, is unusual in its attempt to enter bin Ladin's mind in such a direct manner. Yet, it is possible that it might really reflect the future plans and policies of Al-Qa`idah and its front groups.

In the first part of the article, "bin Ladin," the author, describes how the idea of global Jihad developed in his mind, and there is nothing new. The development of the ideas in bin Ladin's mind is presented in a very well organized and rational manner. Interestingly, there is the guidance of Allah, in almost the same manner as was given to the Prophet, Muhammad, according to the Qur’an. The author plants in his readers' minds, young Muslim minds, an image that could easily turn bin Ladin into a kind of "new Muhammad." The admiration, constantly growing, for bin Ladin by Muslim youth, becomes a personification of the best of the Prophet and the stages he experienced during the divine revelation to him.

Bin Ladin's immigration (Hijrah) is to Afghanistan, and his worst period of ignorance (Jahiliyyah) is the American "invasion" of Arabia in 1990-91: "the most sinful crime in the history of Arabia.... And the biggest high treason in Islamic history.... Which was blessed by a unanimous categorical Islamic Fatwah that said that these forces came< for the defense of the purity of Islam, and whoever fights them is a fighter against Allah." But then, after the Gulf war, there was a split over the issue of Islamic priorities:

"Some of our Mujahidin brothers decided that now was the time to spread the Jihadi messages in order to defeat the Western-made regimes, which led to clashes with the Egyptian and Algerian governments. During our study of those efforts, we noticed that the international planning center for burying every Jihadi liberating project in the Islamic nation could be found in the United States, the center of evil.... The ultimate conclusion was therefore, that no project for the liberation of the Islamic nation from Western dominancy could succeed as long as the United States was there....Then we concluded that the equator of the Islamic world is composed of two sections:

a. There is no chance to change the situation of the Islamic world unless the role of the United States is singled out.
b. The United States could not be defeated by an army or by any traditional military confrontation."

This was the origin of the globalization of the war against the United States, "starting in Somalia, where we killed over 200 American soldiers.... And started studying up close the nature of the American soldier, the lines of American military doctrine, and the nature of American retaliation."

Then, Al-Qa`idah decided to provoke the United States with operations that "imposed upon them the distribution of our Jihadi doctrines on the international level, and pushed Clinton to declare us the first enemy of the United States. The flames were the two operations in Nairobi and Dar as-Salam:

It was in fact what the Americans wanted, according to their studies. They were looking for a while for an enemy that would grant them a justification to live. One of their scholars stated that there was no meaning to the United States if there was no Soviet Union to hate. We granted them what they wished for and turned into that enemy. But, unfortunately for them, we were not the traditional enemy they expected, and hence we managed to turn their lives into hell."

Then came the September 11th attacks on American soil, and according to "bin Ladin" they managed to embark, in Afghanistan, on another kind of a war, a traditional guerrilla war in an area that was better known to the Islamists than to the Americans.

But the more important outcome of the September 11th attacks was, according to this analysis, the American attempt to impose upon the Arab governments a coalition against the Islamists. The Arab response uncovered the high treason of these governments to their publics and the fact that their first mission was actually the protection of the West. It enabled al-Qa`idah to act against the United States from within societies that hate their own governments as well as the Americans.

Another important consequence was, in "bin Ladin's" eyes, the success of the Islamists in engaging the globalization of Islam and their ability to stand above the nationalist dimension. It released them from all the limits of the regional perceptions that had paralyzed many of the other Islamic groups.

WHAT NEXT?

The present conflict between the Islamist radicals and the West is perceived by the author as the first stage of four. The next phase and the first priority of the global Jihad for the near future, as presented in this analysis, is to defeat the Arab governments. According to "bin Ladin", they should achieve this goal by:

"Imposing upon the American administration direct cooperation with us. The United States itself will remove the legitimacy of the [Arab] cartoon states. The American direct involvement in the affairs of the Muslim world, by limiting the power of their rulers or by encouraging them to behave according to the American dictates, is the ideal situation that we have wished for a long time. When the direct confrontation between the Americans and us comes, the agent Arab and Islamic governments will be of no importance."

The third stage is called the "stage of isolation," in which the Islamists would seek to isolate the American administration from its own citizens on the one hand, and from its allies, on the other. "At first, we did not know how we could arrive at this stage due to the war against us. But, the American political stupidity of the Bush administration gave us the answer, when it started recruiting the world towards the war against Iraq."

The author gives special importance to the tapes bin Ladin sent and keeps sending to the Western and Muslim people:
"These two messages were meant to target two audiences:
To give the Muslim peoples the confidence that the Mujahidin are the only element capable of destroying the Western hegemony.

To remind the Western people that the revenge against them would be tremendous, and the destruction of the Bush administration and its allied governments would bring on them... They could never uproot the new Islamic powers and therefore, they should press their governments to start isolating themselves from the United States. Otherwise, they would be hit like the Americans would."

This issue of the tapes is interesting, since it might reflect the thinking of Al-Qa`idah's leadership. The Modus Operandi of sending audiotapes through the Al-Jazirah TV station has become, over the past year, a kind of ritual by bin Ladin, like the few articles and books that his deputy Dr. Ayman al-Zawahiri has published through the Saudi London-based newspaper Al-Sharq al-Awsat. It seems that bin Ladin and his aides are closely following the effect of their tapes or announcements in the West, and deliberately sending them only every few months and not more often. This is probably part of an attempt to keep their whereabouts vague and secure and to leave a fog of mystery surrounding them. As bin Ladin or his spokesman Sulaiman Abu Ghayth can record voice messages, it is likely that they can probably send their messages by video as well. So, the obscuring of their whereabouts, and the encouraging of a fog of mystery, seems to be a deliberate act.

The atmosphere surrounding the forthcoming attack against Iraq, perceived by Islamist radicals as part of the war against Islam, increases the expectations of the supporters of al-Qa`idah and a great part of the Anti-American Muslim world, for a major retaliation by al-Qa`idah. Moreover, growing in the background is a sense of apocalypse and apocalyptic thinking among Muslims, similar to what occurred in 1991. Wishful thinking of the forthcoming appearance of the Mahdi and the Black Flags (4) (Al-rayat al-sud) has started to become popular recently. We can find signs of that sense in Islamist forums, as well as on the web site of the Center for Islamic Study and Research. In an article published in late January 2003 by the center, they attempted to cool the enthusiasm of those who have started waiting for the Mahdi, some even wishing to view Usama bin Ladin as the expected one.(5)

It seems that the method of distributing these tapes infrequently, as used by al-Qa`idah, has an effect on large parts of the Muslim publics.

THE FINAL CONFRONTATION WITH THE UNITED STATES

The third stage is linked to the fourth: the final direct confrontation with the United States in order to "purify the world from the American power.... By destroying the United States and defeating it on its soil. Defeating the United States means the defeat of the West, which would lead to the shift of the international center of gravity back to the Islamic world."

And then what? Do these radical Islamists possess a real political vision? Not necessarily. Similar to other Islamic groups that have no political vision of a modern Islamic state, it seems that al-Qa`idah is no different. The author, speaking on behalf of bin Ladin, claims that "we have our perceptions of how the Islamic world would look after the fourth stage, and we have already planned it in details, yet, what we really look for is the awakening of the nation.... Until that day we must do our best in fighting the enemies of Allah, through the sword, the pen, and the word in order to chain their hands and deport them from the Islamic world, and stop their support for the Jews in Palestine."

Where are those political plans for the future Islamic world? Are they not important for the motivation and recruitment of the Muslims? There is no answer, only a utopian vision of a world that "would be more just, purer, cleaner, and nicer, without the United States. We act for the day in which we wake up and there is no America."

CONCLUSION

This vision of the future of the conflict of the Islamic world with the United States and the West, whether it reflects the environment of al-Qa`idah and Usama bin Ladin, or just the wishful thinking of the author, goes far beyond the limited targets of deporting the American military forces from Arabia, the Middle East, or the Muslim world. This is a vision of megalomaniacs, as the late Prof. Ehud Sprinzak defined them, who are fed by doctrines of hatred. They are not motivated by positive and constructive political ideas, but by the demonization of an eternal enemy. They cannot supply their audience with a clear political vision for the stage that would follow their victory, for it is as if the Jihad as an endless struggle is actually the primary and even the only goal. Furthermore, while the globalization of the Islamist struggle, instead of dividing it into the various Arab countries, might help them in gaining the support of wider Islamic publics, it leaves the final political targets vague and more difficult to achieve.

It seems that the success of the leaders of al-Qa`idah in surviving the war against them, reorganizing their forces in Afghanistan, initiating terrorist attacks in various places throughout the world, and frequently alerting the Western world through threats and recorded messages, gave them, over the past year, more self confidence and enabled them to decide to widen their declared targets to the maximum and to initiate the broadest vision of the global conflict. Even if their final targets are vague, their view of the struggle through global terrorism is vivid and their persistence is clear.

The article, which was published in November 2002, should be carefully read not only in the United States but also in Europe. As background to the disputes in February 2003 over the attack against Iraq, Europeans might want to look at this article as a statement of the bin Ladin vision and
plan.

NOTES
1. Qira'ah li-mustaqbal al-ma`rakah bayna farouq al-`asr Usamah bin Ladin wa-Amrika (Reading the future war between bin Ladin and the United States), 17 August 2002. See on-line at: http://ww.jehad.net/jehad-news/article.ID?php=234 (The address might change frequently).
2. Ha'ulaa yala`anahum Allah, wayal`anahum al-la`inun. See on-line at: http://www.yalewis.com/arts/index24.html
3. Al-nizam al-duwali al-jadid - written by Usama bin Ladin. See on-line at: http://www.yalewis.com/arts/index25.html
4. The Black Flags, the Mahdi, as well as the false Messiah (al-Masih al-Dajjal), are part of Islamic theories about the end of the world. They are partly based upon sayings of the Prophet in the accepted Hadith, and partly on popular beliefs and sayings in the weak and controversial parts of the Hadith. These theories were very popular during the first Gulf War in 1991, as was the distribution of literature about al-Masih al-Dajjal.
5. Nahnu Ummah lam yukallifna Allah bi-ma`rifat shakhs al-mahdi qabla khurujihi (Allah did not assign our nation to know the personality of the Mahdi prior to his appearance), The Center for Islamic Study and Research, January 2003. See on-line at:
http://www.cambuur.net/cocI/?subject=7&rec=989

http://www.intelligence.org.il/eng/g_j/rp_a_11_03.htm