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Terrorism Summary 9/26/04

The world situation is still very tense waiting for the widely expected major terror spree to begin. However, national and international activity levels were relatively low this weekend. An additional issue to watch this week is what is going on in N. Korea. Activity has reportedly picked up since the mysterious ‘explosion’. Let me know if you want on or off the Ping list.

Current National Homeland Defense threat level is YELLOW
9/26/04 Local Threat Level ORANGE for NYC, N. New Jersey, D.C No Change since 8/1/04

1. Attack threat windows
9/26/04 Primary Window: We are now 37 days away from election day and if AQ is intending to attack before Nov 2, their window of opportunity is rapidly closing. The following excerpt from Bill Gertz adds some additional context and light on this matter. However, AQ has shown great discipline in attacking when it suits them and is not too constrained by actual time frames and dates.

9/16/04 A tip on about 9/8 through DHS referred to a Sept. 24 to Oct. 10 window for a potential attack in NYC using a fuel truck. We are now IN this subwindow!..

Secondary window: (9/23/04) This window could potentially be extended to Inauguration Day in January 2005. I would consider this period a high risk for potential assassination attempts on the new administration, especially if Bush wins reelection.

9/26/04 Repourts and echos of reports concerning Atty Gen. John Ashcroft’s teleconference call were still echoing around the internet. There was great concern regarding the potential for an attack in the near time frame as well as the severity of the attack.

2. Attack Indicators
9/23/04 There is still anticipation of an OBL video/audio tape to soon appear. I've encountered no other significant tip-offs. However, as many sources have commented, the GO order may have already been given. News reports indicated a high level of ‘chatter’. Those with the knowledge of the islamic sites are evaluating the statement. However, one observation was that the chatter seemed different.

3. Current Terrorist Operations

Iraq
9/26/04 Random attacks continue against Iraqi civilian and police targets. However, this round seems to have found the Iraqi police and military more prepared and the attacks seem to have had less impact than earlier ones.

9/25/04 Some have characterized the recent kidnappings of foreigners in Iraq as being carried out by various criminal gangs who are granted like a ‘franchise’ to carry out the operations with Al-Zarqawi’s blessing. Those kidnapped are then sold to the terrorists. Indications of this became apparent with the alledged sale of the two female Italian aid workers and the possible sale of the British hostage to al-Zarqawi.

9/25/04 An Islamic Internet site today said that an al-Qaeda-linked group had killed British hostage Kenneth Bigley. The claim could not immediately be verified, but surfaced on a website usually used by followers of Jordanian terror mastermind Abu Musab al-Zarqawi to post their statements.
http://www.news.com.au/common/story_page/0,4057,10879464%255E1702,00.html

Italy
9/26/04 Italy is still on heighten alert due to threats by Ansar al-Zawahiri.

Afghanistan October 9 Elections
9/26/04 Afghan security forces killed a senior Taliban commander and two of his comrades in a raid in southern Afghanistan, an official said Sunday. Maulvi Abdul Ghaffar, reportedly a former inmate at the U.S. prison at Guantanamo Bay, Cuba, died in a gunbattle Saturday night in Pishi, a village in the southern province of Uruzgan, said Jan Mohammed Khan (search), governor of Uruzgan.
http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,133559,00.html

Pakistan
9/26/04 "Pakistan - Security forces kill most wanted terrorist sought in Daniel Pearl murder" AFP via Babelfish translation
Posted on 09/26/2004 11:05:20 AM PDT by HAL9000
Amjad Farooqi, whose head was could At price for 20 million rupees (330.000 dollars), was cut down during year exchange of shots in Nawabshah (270 km in the north of Karachi), in the province of Sind (southern). Farooqi is accused in the murder of the American journalist Daniel Pearl.

Israel
9/26/04 Israel continues conterterrorism opeations against Hamas and Palistinain groups.

Iran
9/25/04 Iran, the Middle East's second- largest oil producer, has successfully completed testing of a ``strategic missile,'' the country's official news agency reported, citing Iran's defense minister. The weapon, believed to be the Shahab-3 missile, ``was successfully test-fired during military exercises by the Revolutionary Guard and delivered to the armed forces,'' the report cited Ali Shamkhani as saying.
http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000085&sid=axbQm1JNuuhM&refer=europe

Russia
9/23/04 The Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) and interior troops have dealt a serious blow to the finance channels and the training system of female suicide bombers, through the capture of 31-year-old Nataliya Khalkayeva in Chechnya. She took part in financing and training female suicide bombers.
http://www.mosnews.com/news/2004/09/22/security.shtml

England
9/26/04 British police said on Saturday they had arrested four men under anti-terrorism legislation after a tip-off from a newspaper which said the suspects tried to buy explosives for a dirty bomb.
http://www.cnn.com/2004/WORLD/europe/09/26/britain.arrests.reut/index.html

Syria
9/26/04 A car bomb exploded in Damascus on Sunday, killing a top Hamas leader Izz El-Deen Al-Sheikh Khalil, Israeli security sources said speaking
http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?pagename=JPost/JPArticle/ShowFull&cid=1096172273655

N. Korea
9/24/04 Information from U.S. reconnaissance indicates that a number of military vehicles carrying medium-range Rodong missiles have been on the move in the northwestern part of North Korea. These maneuvers, combined with the recent N. Korean threats has the Jappanese government on edge. It is uncertain what the purpose of the movements are, but it does bring Japan within range of the Rodong missiles. A potenial test launch of Rodong or the longer ranged Taepodong-2 is also possible. Another interesting point is that this activity has seem to have followed the mysterious ‘explosion’ event.
http://asia.news.yahoo.com/040924/kyodo/d85a57200.html

S. Korea
9/26/04 The Defense Agency heightened the defense alert level from defcon 5 to defcon 4, calling for increased information gathering by intelligence headquarters and for surveillance by the Maritime Self-Defense Force. This is in response to increased activity at 10 missile sites in N. Korea.

9/24/04 The United States has warned of heightened risk of terror attacks and violent action on American government facilities and personnel in South Korea following Seoul's dispatch of troops to Iraq. South Korea's defense ministry announced on Wednesday it had completed the deployment of around 2,800 troops on a relief and rehabilitation mission to northern Iraq. They will be reinforced by another 800 soldiers in November.
http://rds.yahoo.com/S=53720272/K=korea/v=2/SID=e/l=NSR/R=22/*-http://news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/afp/20040924/pl_afp/us_skorea_iraq_troops_040924140651

Central America
9/24/04 MEXICO CITY, Sept 23 (Reuters) - Mexico has detained two men thought to be from the Middle East on suspicion of having links to terror. The men, deported from Costa Rica and held in Mexico this week for traveling with false passports, are Jordanians who may have been trying to enter the United States, local press reports said.
http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/N23350512.htm

United States
9/26/04 America continues to be very focused upon the Presidential campaigns and not too focused upon domestic terrorism - at least at the MSM level. Terror seems to be that thing that happens in some other country. Eternal vigilance is the price of Freedom once again.

4. Attack method.
9/26/04 No real change in the preferred method of choice of AQ which are bombs - the bigger the better. With the exception of 9/11, car/truck bombs have been widely used. Stolen fuel / propane trucks seem to be high on LEA’s radar.
Also of concern are assassinations and kidnappings/hostages. Both of these actions are relatively low tech and highly possible. Our own internal wacko -the DC sniper and various other unsolved snipings show how difficult it would be to track down a determined terrorist.

5. Personnel
9/25/04 Ali Al-Timimi, has been charged by US prosecutors for encouraging up to five other men to join the Taliban in Afghanistan in the immediate aftermath of the September 11 attacks on New York and Washington. Al-Timimi, 40, of Fairfax, Virginia, was the primary lecturer at the Dar al Arqam Islamic Centre, also known as the Centre for Islamic Information and Education, until September 11, 2001.
http://www.news.com.au/common/story_page/0,4057,10864047%255E1702,00.html

6. Significant meetings canceled:
9/26/04 No new cancellations.

7. Security has been heightened in specific cities
9/26/04 No significant change since 8/11/04. NYC, N. NJ and D.C. are still at threat level ORANGE and DHS continues to review the threat towards these potential targets daily. Specifically identified targets include the International Monetary Fund and World Bank in D.C.; Prudential Financial in Northern New Jersey; and Citigroup buildings and the New York Stock Exchange in New York. I don't look for any change in the status of these locations until after the inauguration at the earliest.

GENERAL: Ongoing work to upgrade security at sea ports and airports.

8. Military operations.
9/23/04 US military are working with Syrian military to conduct joint exercises to counter terrorists crossings enroute to Iraq.

9/16/04 4 carrier groups deployed, 1 is on standby and preparing for October deployment (Abraham Lincoln), 3 back in port and 4 under going maintenance.

8/31/04 The F-117s are still deployed in S. Korea.

9. Dept of Homeland Scty. / State Department
9/25/04 United States Department of State

This information is current as of today, Sat Sep 25 2004 03:23:18 GMT-0700.
Pakistan September 24, 2004
This Travel Warning is being issued to update to U.S. citizens of the current potential dangers and the need to obtain Pakistani government permission for travel outside urban areas within Pakistan. This Travel Warning supersedes the Travel Warning dated January 29, 2004.

Due to on-going concerns about the possibility of terrorist activity directed against American citizens and interests, the Department of State continues to warn U.S. citizens to defer non-essential travel to Pakistan. The U.S. Consulates in Karachi, Lahore, and Peshawar continue to operate at reduced staffing levels. Family members of official Americans assigned to the Embassy in Islamabad and to the three consulates in Pakistan were ordered to leave the country in March 2002 and have not been allowed to return.
http://travel.state.gov/travel/pakistan_warning.html

9/21/04 The Secret Service is looking for an armed, mentally unstable upstate man in connection with a plot to kill President Bush and John Kerry. The agency put out a "national lookout" yesterday for Lawrence Ward, a 57-year-old resident of Bainbridge, N.Y., who is said to have an obsession with guns, a history of violence and a hatred of the president. Ward was last seen on Sept. 9 as he got into his blue 1997 Toyota with a lever-action shotgun, the neighbor said. The alert said the car has New York license-plate number BRF6546.

10. Suspicious Domestic Incidents Not Currently Linked to Specific Terrorism Attempts
9/26/04 The FBI charged Steven Holten, 40, with sending an e-mail Monday threatening Jewish organizations, government officials and media organizations in Reno and San Francisco. "Our violent terrorist actions will be a shock to the citizens of Reno and San Francisco,'' the e-mail said. "It will be gruesome, and something that has never been seen in Reno and San Francisco -- ever." Holten was arrested Wednesday at his apartment in Reno and made his initial court appearance the following day in federal court. Authorities said they had found a laptop in his apartment that he allegedly used to send the e- mail, as well as a gun.

9/25/04 PADDOCK LAKE, Wis. (AP) A man wearing women's clothing and sitting in a parked car was apprehended Friday on the route for President Bush's motorcade, authorities said. Officers found the 57-year-old Trevor man was wearing women's clothes and had a loaded gun in a case and a throwing knife in his vehicle. According to a sheriff's report, the man could not explain why he possessed the weapons but told an investigator he was only there to take a picture of the president.
http://wcco.com/apwisconsin/WI--Bush-Arrest-kn/resources_news_html

From FR Breaking News:

Syria seeking to oust Iraqi nuclear scientists

Syria is making desperate efforts to persuade Iran to accept a group of 12 Iraqi nuclear scientists and their families who had sought refuge in Damascus before the US-led coalition toppled Saddam Hussein.

Quoting Western intelligence officials, the London-based Sunday Telegraph reported that Syrian President Bashar Assad fears that the US will use the presence of the Iraqi scientists as a pretext to target Syria and he is desperate to find a new home for them.

The possibility of moving the Iraqi scientists to Iran, a close ally of Syria, was first mooted when Assad visited Teheran last July. The intelligence officials believe he is still waiting for an Iranian response.

The scientists and their families were sent to Syria before Saddam was overthrown under a combined operation mounted by Saddam's now-defunct Special Security Organization and Syrian Military Security, which is headed by Arif Shawqat, brother-in-law of Assad.

The Iraqi scientists, who are said to have taken computer disks crammed with research data on Saddam's nuclear program, were given new identities, as well as Syrian citizenship papers and false birth, education and health certificates.

Since their arrival in Syria, they have been hidden at a secret Syrian military installation where they have been conducting research on behalf of the Assad regime.

But Assad has been prompted to reconsider sheltering the Iraqis as a result of growing concern in Washington over Syria's own undeclared programs for developing weapons of mass destruction.

American intelligence officials, according to the Sunday Telegraph, are concerned that Syria is secretly working on a number of such programs, including a nuclear weapons program.

Concern about Syria mounted after the US discovered evidence that Damascus has acquired a number of gas centrifuges - probably from North Korea - which can be used to enrich uranium, the vital ingredient for making nuclear weapons. (snipped)

http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?pagename=JPost/JPArticle/ShowFull&cid=1096172277300&p=1078397702269

Ex-CENTCOM No. 2: Intel Showed Iraq Smuggled Out WMDs

Lt. Gen. Michael DeLong (USMC Ret.), who until last September was the No. 2 in command of the Iraq war under Gen. Tommy Franks, revealed Sunday that U.S. military intelligence had determined that weapons of mass destruction were being smuggled out of the country as the U.S. prepared to invade. "I do know for a fact that some of those weapons went into Syria, Lebanon and Iran," Gen. DeLong told WABC Radio's Steve Malzberg, while discussing his new book, "Inside CENTCOM: The Unvarnished Truth About the Wars in Afghanistan and Iraq."

"Two days before the war, on March 17 [2003], we saw through multiple intelligence channels - both human intelligence and technical intelligence - large caravans of people and things, including some of the top 55 [most wanted] Iraqis, going to Syria," Gen. DeLong explained. (snipped)

http://www.newsmax.com/archives/ic/2004/9/26/161043.shtml