Interesting developments and observations this week. Tension is rising due to recent word from Atty Gen Ashcroft of an increased potential for an attack. I am planning to do a separate report on a potential preemptive or retaliatory attack by Iran. Let me know if you want on or off the Ping list.
Current National Homeland Defense threat level is YELLOW
9/23/04 Local Threat Level ORANGE for NYC, N. New Jersey, D.C No Change since 8/1/04
1. Attack threat windows
9/23/04 Primary Window: We are now 40 days away from election day and if AQ is intending to attack before Nov 2, their window of opportunity is rapidly closing. The following excerpt from Bill Gertz adds some additional context and light on this matter. However, AQ has shown great discipline in attacking when it suits them and is not too constrained by actual time frames and dates.
9/16/04 A tip on about 9/8 through DHS referred to a Sept. 24 to Oct. 10 window for a potential attack in NYC using a fuel truck. We are now beginning to enter this subwindow!..
Secondary window: (9/23/04) This window could potentially be extended to Inauguration Day in January 2005. I would consider this period a high risk for potential assassination attempts on the new administration, especially if Bush wins reelection.
9/21/04 Excerpt from Bill Gertz in the Washington Times: U.S. intelligence agencies concluded recently that al Qaeda — fearing its credibility is on the line — is moving ahead with plans for a major, "spectacular" attack, despite disruptions of some operations by recent arrests in Britain and Pakistan.
Officials said recent intelligence assessments of the group, which is blamed for the September 11 attacks, state that an attack is coming and that the danger will remain high until the Nov. 2 elections and last until Inauguration Day on Jan. 20.
"They [al Qaeda] think their credibility is on the line because there hasn't been a major attack since 9/11," said one official familiar with intelligence reports on the group. A second official said: "There isn't reason to believe that the recent arrests have disrupted their plans."
Thus, details of the possible attack remain murky, but analysts say it is planned to be bigger and deadlier than the September 11 attacks, which killed 3,000 people.
Potential targets include the White House, Pentagon, U.S. Capitol and congressional buildings, as well as landmarks and business centers in New York, the officials said. The officials said that there is no specific information about targets.
http://www.washtimes.com/national/20040921-121158-2444r.htm
2. Attack Indicators
9/23/04 There is still anticipation of an OBL video/audio tape to soon appear. I've encountered no other significant tip-offs. However, as many sources have commented, the GO order may have already been given. According to Justpiper, Fox news has just mentioned that ‘chatter’ is coming in at an alarming rate. This is pending further analysis and data as to the extent and nature of the chatter.
3. Current Terrorist Operations
Iraq
9/22/04 An Islamist group in Iraq has said it killed two female Italian hostages in a statement posted on an Internet site not often used by Iraqi militants. The group, calling itself the Jihad Organization, said it had killed the women after Italy did not heed its call to withdraw its forces from Iraq. A group with a similar name, the Islamic Jihad Organization, said on September 12 that it would kill the hostages in 24 hours if Italian troops did not leave Iraq.
Validity of this claim is still unknown since the women were thought to have been turned over to / purchased by Zarqawi.
http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=578&ncid=578&e=1&u=/nm/20040922/ts_nm/iraq_italy_hostages_dc
9/23/04 Al-Zarqawi has brutally murdered two of three western hostages. The third, a Brit, was seen pleading for his life on Wednesday. Zarqawi’s demands include the release of two woman scientist known as Drs. Germ and Anthrax. Both were key players in Saddam’s Biological warfare development. Zarqawi is also believed to have two Italian women relief workers in his clutches too, after purchasing them from their original captors.
9/23/04 There have been more car bombings targeting Iraqi civilians and police. Attempting to destabilize/demoralize the civilians and the government prior to the January 2005 elections. MSM is trying to paint this as things are out of control. However, the intensity level is far below the last cycle of attacks upon the police and civilians.
9/22/04 Hamas members are alleged to be moving into Iraq to fight for Zarqawi because the pay is better than fighting against Israel.
9/22/04 The spiritual leader of a militant group that claimed to have beheaded two American hostages in Iraq has been killed in a U.S.
Sheik Abu Anas al-Shami, 35, was killed when a missile hit the car he was traveling in on Friday in the west Baghdad suburb of Abu-Ghraib, said the clerics, who have close ties to the family. Al-Shami was a close aide to Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, the leader of the militant group Tawhid and Jihad.
9/21/04 NAJAF, Iraq (AFP) - US marines arrested two close aides and several partisans of Moqtada Sadr in a predawn raid on the radical Shiite cleric's office in the central Iraqi city of Najaf, officials and witnesses told AFP.
Another Sadr official, who managed to escape during the raid, said dozens of partisans of the cleric's Mehdi Army militia were arrested in the operation.
http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/afp/20040921/wl_mideast_afp/iraq_us_sadr_arrest_040921111207&e=5
Italy/Lebanon
9/21/04 Italian and Lebanese authorities have arrested 10 alleged terrorists in Lebanon, thwarting plans to blow up the Italian Embassy in Beirut in a car bomb attack, the Italian news agency ANSA said Tuesday.
Plans for the attack were in an advanced phase, ANSA said. Police also seized about 220 pounds of explosives, the Italian news agency said. The suspects, whose nationalities were not immediately clear, were alleged to be members of a Lebanese cell of the Salafist Group for Call and Combat, an extremist organization believed to have ties to Osama bin Laden's al-Qaida.
http://www.nj.com/newsflash/topstories/index.ssf?/base/international-8/1095796444290400.xml&storylist=
9/23/04 Italy is still on heighten alert due to threats by Ansar al-Zawahiri
Afghanistan October 9 Elections
9/20/04 A roadside bomb hit a convoy carrying an Afghan vice president and a Cabinet minister in northern Afghanistan Monday, injuring one of their bodyguards without harming the politicians, police said.
http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=535&e=4&u=/ap/20040920/ap_on_re_as/afghan_vice_president_attack>
9/16/04 A battalion from the 82d Airborne is enroute to provide additional security for the October election.
Pakistan
9/19/04 Nothing new to report.
Israel
9/22/04 A female suicide bomber detonated herself at a busy intersection in Jerusalem on Wednesday, as she approached a bus stop, press reports said. At least one bystander died and three people were seriously wounded, reports from Jerusalem said. Some reports speculated that the bomb may have exploded early, before the Palestinian woman could board a bus.
Indonesia
9/20/04 INDONESIAN police fear the terrorist masterminds of the Australian embassy bombing in Jakarta are planning deadly attacks every six months. Police sources said Malaysian bomb maker Azahari Husin and bag man Noordin Mohammed Top were aiming to increase the tempo of attacks, which have claimed 223 lives since the Bali bombings of 2002.
They also say that al-Qaeda money was used by the South East Asia-based Jemaah Islamiah group to fund the September 9 blast as well as last year's Marriott Hotel suicide attack in the Indonesian capital.
http://www.news.com.au/common/story_page/0,4057,10834327%255E2,00.html
9/20/04 The three main Southeast Asian Islamic terrorist groups have had a strong, secret alliance for almost 20 years, which continues to train Jemaah Islamiah's bomb-makers, intelligence documents reveal. These three groups consist of Jemaah Islamiah, the Moro Islamic Liberation Front and Abu Sayyaf. These groups are reportedly operate out of two training camps of in the southern Philippines.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/common/story_page/0,5744,10830835^401,00.html
Saudi Arabia
9/19/04 The State Department has finally recognized that there is no freedom of religion in SA. Saudi officials countered that that is incorrect, people can follow their own beliefs as long as it is Islam.
Iran
9/22/04 Iran has announced that it has successfully begun to enrich uranium for use in ‘peaceful’ projects.
9/21/04 Iranian Mohammad Heydari has expressed the following serious opinions regarding Iran’s military options in the face of potential strikes against its nuclear program by either the US or Israel.
As well as the UN Security Council, all countries may take the necessary steps to help their own security situation in the face of threats. If there is a coalition between the United States and Israel to undertake psychological warfare against Iran, and if they are hereby preparing to take military action against the Islamic Republic of Iran, the country's national security calls for preventative action to reduce the threats to a minimum.
Note that they are laying out the justification for their own ‘preemptive strike’ against Israel, the US or both. Based upon our current operational situation in Iraq, this could be very serious.
Source: BBC Monitoring Middle East. London: Sep 21, 2004 Iran has right to "all-out war" against US, Israeli threats
Godzilla additional comments: I am thinking over writing up a possible scenario involving an Iranian attack. Doing research now to make sure I have my basic facts straight. What I can say is that I concur with the Newsweek report on intelligence wargaming and it isn’t pretty.
Russia
9/23/04 “Three trotyl blocks and a detonator with wires were hidden in a black polyethylene package with plums and left on a back seat of a private taxi,” a source in Moscow law enforcement structures was quoted by Russian Information Agency Novosti as saying.
http://www.mosnews.com/news/2004/09/22/plumexplosive.shtml
9/20/04 Abu Hafs al-Urdani, the Jordanian successor to Ibn-ul Khattab and Abu al-Walid al-Ghamidi as top commander of the Al-Qaida-linked foreign mujahideen in Chechnya, has issued a new purported threat to Russia and the United States. According to the statement, "We will make Russia and America taste death, and Ramadan will be the month of conquests through [suicide] operations everywhere across this universe." Ramadan runs from Oct. 15 to Nov. 12, 2004.
http://www.globalterroralert.com/index.htm
England
9/19/04 Abu Faraj al Libbi, A Libyan, is believed by Pakistani intelligence officials to have taken over as third in command of al Qa'eda when his mentor, Khalid Sheikh Mohammed, was captured last year. He is believed to have sent coded messages to "several" Islamic militants in Britain over the past 10 months, according to Pakistani officials.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2004/09/19/walq19.xml&sSheet=/news/2004/09/19/ixnewstop.html
Sudan/Syria
99/20/04 Contradicting earlier government statements, the U.S. intelligence community has determined that Syria deployed weapons of mass destruction in Sudan's rebel Darfour province.
U.S. officials said the CIA has obtained what it deemed reliable information that Syria used a range of air bombs and perhaps rockets filled chemical and biological weapons in the war in Darfour. They said the BW and CW were used in Sudanese military attacks against African villagers in Darfour.
"The U.S. intelligence community has clear evidence that Syrian weapons and experts arrived several months ago and tested the operational use of a range of biological and chemical weapons in Darfour," an official said. "The results were devastating."
The officials said Syrian BW and CW were deployed in fighting in Darfour in June and July. They said hundreds of people were killed in the attacks, which appeared to mostly comprise of bombs being dropped by parachute from Sudanese Air Force An-24 air transports.
Syria
9/20/04 Syrian forces positioned in Lebanon since the 1975 Lebanese civil war will commence a major redeployment toward the Syrian-Lebanese border Tuesday, and Syrian and U.S. troops will partake in joint security operations along the Syrian-Iraqi border, official sources in Damascus told United Press International Monday. However, the Syrian forces are not totally leaving Lebanon as required by the UN, but pulling back closer to the Syrian border. Israeli sources comment that these redeployments are more tactical than strategic and have occurred in the past.
http://washingtontimes.com/upi-breaking/20040920-031022-4595r.htm
Nepal
9/21/04 Suspected maoist rebels have abducted more than 100 students and teachers from three schools in western and eastern districts of Nepal over the weekend. A little over a month ago, crowds attacked Muslims in retaliation for the murder of Nepalese workers in Iraq.
United States
9/23/04 America continues to be very focused upon the Presidential campaigns and not too focused upon domestic terrorism - at least at the MSM level. Terror seems to be that thing that happens in some other country. Eternal vigilance is the price of Freedom once again.
4. Attack method.
9/23/04 No real change in the preferred method of choice of AQ which are bombs - the bigger the better. With the exception of 9/11, car/truck bombs have been widely used. 9/11 and the recent attacks in Russia do indicate that AQ can think out of the box and adapt its tactics to the group actually carrying out the attack(s).
Also of concern are assassinations and kidnappings/hostages. Both of these actions are relatively low tech and highly possible. Our own internal wacko -the DC sniper and various other unsolved snipings show how difficult it would be to track down a determined terrorist.
9/20/04 Matt Drudge on his radio program stirred up considerable discussions regarding a tip that he had received about the Secret Service actively on the trail of several individuals who were plotting to assassinate President Bush. Without being able to evaluate his sources, assassinations are in AQ’s play book and would seem right on track with recent warnings. It is now not sure if Drudge was referring to the search for Lawrence Ward or not.
5. Personnel
9/20/04 Palestinian-born Fawaz Damra, imam of the Islamic Center of Cleveland, Ohio's largest mosque, was sentenced Monday to two months in federal prison and four months of house arrest for lying about his connections to terrorist groups when he applied for U.S. citizenship.
http://www.lasvegassun.com/sunbin/stories/nat-gen/2004/sep/20/092002790.html
6. Significant meetings canceled:
9/23/04 No new cancellations.
7. Security has been heightened in specific cities
9/23/04 No significant change since 8/11/04. NYC, N. NJ and D.C. are still at threat level ORANGE and DHS continues to review the threat towards these potential targets daily. Specifically identified targets include the International Monetary Fund and World Bank in D.C.; Prudential Financial in Northern New Jersey; and Citigroup buildings and the New York Stock Exchange in New York. I don't look for any change in the status of these locations until after the inauguration at the earliest.
GENERAL: Ongoing work to upgrade security at sea ports and airports.
8. Military operations.
9/23/04 US military are working with Syrian military to conduct joint exercises to counter terrorists crossings enroute to Iraq.
9/20/04 US spy agencies have conducted "war games" to consider possible pre-emptive strikes on Iran's nuclear facilities and concluded that such action would not resolve the standoff with Tehran, according to a report in Newsweek magazine."
"The war games were unsuccessful at preventing the conflict from escalating," an unnamed US air force source told the magazine.
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1222058/posts .
9/16/04 A battalion task force from the 82nd Airborne Division is deploying to Afghanistan to provide additional security for national elections on October 9, 2004.
9/16/04 4 carrier groups deployed, 1 is on standby and preparing for October deployment (Abraham Lincoln), 3 back in port and 4 under going maintenance.
8/31/04 The F-117s are still deployed in S. Korea.
9. Dept of Homeland Scty. / State Department
9/23/04 Federal officials are increasingly concerned that a terrorist attack is being planned for the weeks prior to the Nov. 2 presidential election.
"Every day there is new information that raises the level of anxiety," said one law enforcement official who declined to be identified.
The concern, based on intelligence reporting of multiple sources, is that the plots or plot may be in the final stages of planning — and ready to be triggered at any time, a law enforcement official said.
http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,133281,00.html
9/21/04 The Secret Service is looking for an armed, mentally unstable upstate man in connection with a plot to kill President Bush and John Kerry. The agency put out a "national lookout" yesterday for Lawrence Ward, a 57-year-old resident of Bainbridge, N.Y., who is said to have an obsession with guns, a history of violence and a hatred of the president. Ward was last seen on Sept. 9 as he got into his blue 1997 Toyota with a lever-action shotgun, the neighbor said. The alert said the car has New York license-plate number BRF6546.
10. Suspicious Domestic Incidents Not Currently Linked to Specific Terrorism Attempts
9/20/04 A crowded grocery store quickly became a chaotic scene Friday when a chemical attack sent people running into the parking lot complaining of burning eyes and lungs. At least 37 people were affected and 17 people were rushed to several hospitals. The chemical release is being treated as a crime, said Redwood City Fire Chief Gerry Kohlmann. “We don’t know if it was a prank, or if it’s deliberate or a sign of something to follow,” said Kohlmann. Attacks like this happen occasionally in the Bay Area, but seldom happen in Redwood City, said Matuszak.
http://www.smdailyjournal.org/article.cfm?issue=09-18-04&storyID=34922