Threat Matrix: Daily Terror Threat

Hunt for source of terror images

Ewen MacAskill and Bobbie Johnson

Friday September 24, 2004

The Guardian

US and British intelligence services were yesterday hunting for the site of the computer used to post on the internet the video of British hostage Kenneth Bigley pleading for his life.

Intelligence and computer analysts confirmed it was technically possible to identify the home, office or internet cafe from which the video originated. But they said it was a time consuming exercise and that the terrorists responsible were likely to only use a computer once before moving to another location.

Rita Katz, director of the Washington-based organisation Search for International Terrorist Entities, said yesterday there were dozens of such sites and message boards used for propaganda, recruitment and training.

She said: "By the time the government subpoenas a company to get the information [about an individual computer] it can take two to three months."

The website run by the group holding Mr Bigley, Tawhid and Jihad, led by Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, has been up and running for five weeks, according to a London-based Arab journalist. The videos are quickly distributed among other terrorist websites and that further makes it difficult to close them down.

Ms Katz, the Iraqi-born author of Terrorist Hunter, said that on one message board there was discussion immediately after the beheading of one of the two Americans about the fate of Mr Bigley. This included a suggestion that Mr Bigley should make a plea to Mr Blair.

A security analyst who requested anonymity because his firm deals with kidnappings said: "The internet has become an important tool for the mobilisation and training of jihadists. We have seen more and more because the internet puts the main media in the hands of an individual."

The Foreign Office has a team monitoring the jihadist websites 24 hours a day.

The video of Mr Bigley, although superficially sophisticated with the use of elaborate graphics, is in fact quite crude and it is relatively easy for anyone with some computer expertise to post such a video on the internet. Using a video camera and appropriate software, even low quality film can be turned into a digital file in a matter of minutes.

That file can then be transferred to the web using any reasonably powerful computer with an internet connection. While Iraq does not yet have much high-speed broadband web access, video uploading could easily take place at one of the country's many internet cafes or via a private telephone line. There is even the possibility that the kidnappers are able to transfer videos by sending them from a mobile phone.

"Even under Saddam such technology was much more widespread than people thought," said Paul Eedle, another specialist on terror groups on the web.

Since the fall of Saddam there has been an expansion in technological uptake, especially among middle-class Iraqis. While greater technical expertise is required to try and prevent information being traced back to its source, such knowledge is relatively common in the Middle East. Neighbouring Saudi Arabia is considered a leading fountainhead of internet expertise in the region.

The chief consideration for those trying to track the videos to their source is to discover where and when the files were put on the internet.

Mr Eedle shares Ms Katz's scepticism that tracing the source to a location may not prove successful in catching the kidnappers. He said: "Al-Zarqawi's followers are definitely exposing themselves by uploading material at roughly the same time every night - but ultimately they'd be taking more of a risk by physically dumping a body on a Baghdad street."

http://www.guardian.co.uk/Iraq/Story/0,2763,1311834,00.html

Sep. 20, 2004. 01:00 AM

Money laundering on rise, poll finds

CRAIG WONG
CANADIAN PRESS

Two-thirds of banks around the world have reported an increase in the volume of suspicious activities they report to police, a report by KPMG suggests.

The accounting and consulting firm suggests in a report for release today that $500 billion to $1 trillion is laundered worldwide annually by drug dealers, arms traffickers and other criminals.

James Hunter, president of KPMG Forensic, said that, since the September, 2001, terrorist attacks against America, financial institutions have become more vigilant against the proceeds of crime.

"Money launderers have always seen Canada as a bit of a haven because we have a stable banking system, we've got a pretty open economy and we're quite lenient on criminals," Hunter said.

"In Canada, we don't really have the same enforcement mentality that they have in the United States. So, for example, when white-collar crime occurs in the United States, it tends to be dealt with much more severely."

The survey polled 209 financial institutions around the world, including five Canadian banks.

Hunter said a key challenge for Canadian financial institutions is to ensure the same standards are applied across the whole organization, regardless of where its branches are located.

"In many cases they have not grown organically. They've grown by merger and acquisition.

"I think there is a real challenge for a Canadian bank to make sure the standards that are applied in Toronto will be applied in the South Pacific or the Caribbean or other areas that are traditionally associated with money launderers."

The survey suggests police are having difficulty responding to the increased volume of reports of suspicious transactions, due to a lack of resources and the challenge of monitoring account transactions in other countries.

The first line of defence for banks is their tellers, Hunter said.

"No bank in a developed country wants to be seen to be facilitating terrorist financing."

http://www.thestar.com/NASApp/cs/ContentServer?pagename=thestar/Layout/Article_Type1&c=Article&cid=1095631809951&call_pageid=968332188854&col=968350060724

Al-Qaida targets Ulster (NOTE: misleading headline!)

By John Hunter

19 September 2004

ULSTER is included on a possible terrorist "hit-list", at the centre of a major international security exercise to be launched next spring.

For security experts think Northern Ireland could be a possible "backdoor" target for an al-Qaida attack on Britain.

According to a well-placed source, the security services here, including MI5, have been working on the planned exercise involving Britain, the United States and Canada for the past two years.

The Irish republic has also been kept informed.

Code-named "Atlantic Blue", it will involve personnel drawn from military, police, rescue and security services on both sides of the Atlantic.

Dublin's task force on emergency planning, has also been consulted, since any attack on Northern Ireland might involve terrorist overflying of the Republic's airspace.

The planned scenario is a supposed terrorist attack firstly on the United States, which then spreads to the UK.

Use of suicide-mission aircraft, as in the 9/11 attacks, with chemical, biological and radioactive attacks are all on the schedule.

Although the central focus of the UK part of the exercise is obviously on world-prestige targets in London, Northern Ireland also figures as a possible focus for a sneak attack, perhaps designed to divert defence attention from a main thrust on the British capital.

Ulster targets, on which a special MI5 working group has been advising on security in the event of an al-Qaida attack, include Belfast's two airports, parliament buildings at Stormont, and several prominent Belfast high-rise skyscrapers.

It is also understood, that with the discreet agreement of the Dublin government, the RAF has also been taking part in regular "familiarisation", exercises in southern Irish airspace.

A UK security source suggests that, should a civilian airliner be hi-jacked in the Republic for use as a September 11 bomb, the RAF would be called in to shoot it down.

http://www.sundaylife.co.uk/news/story.jsp?story=563501

British Hostage In Iraq May Have Been 'sold' To Zarqawi Group

LONDON, Sept 25 (AFP) - A senior Anglican clergyman with many years' experience in Iraq believes British hostage Kenneth Bigley was "sold" by the men who seized him to the hardline Tawhid wal Jihad (Unity and Holy War) organisation, The Times newspaper reported Saturday.

In an interview, Canon Andrew White -- who was involved in the rescue of four Western hostages in Iraq last June -- suggested that Bigley's chances were bleak, nine days after he was snatched along with two US colleagues who have since been executed.

His best hope for freedom, said White, would be a direct appeal from a senior Sunni Muslim cleric who enjoys respect in the Sunni Triangle, where it is believed he is being held.

White told The Times that Bigley was probably sold by the men who snatched him to Tawhid wal Jihad -- led by Abu Mussab Zarqawi, who has suspected links with Osama bin Laden's Al-Qaeda network -- for 250,000 dollars (203,700 euros).

The Times did not explain how White -- director of the Iraqi Center for Dialogue, Reconciliation and Peace, and a former peace envoy for the former archbishop of Canterbury George Carey -- arrived at that figure.

"The reality is that once these people (hostages) are with the Al-Qaeda groups, it is too late," White was quoted as saying upon his return Friday from Washington where he briefed US officials on Iraq's unrelenting hostage-takings.

"Nobody knows where Zarqawi is. Those who are closest to him will not reveal anything. In the hostage-taking process, you have to move really quickly. The first 48 hours are crucial."

While an appeal from a senior Sunni Muslim cleric would help, White said many such figures -- including a handful thought to be capable of reaching Zarqawi -- have fled Iraq for nearby states such as Jordan and Syria.

If Bigley is still alive, White said, he has likely become a pawn in an ordeal that could drag on for weeks before he is set free.

"The method would be to get the local religious leaders to talk to him (Zarqawi)," he said.

"They would have to say to Zarqawi, 'You need to help us. What you are doing weakens the broader Sunni cause, but you are in a position to empower us'," he said.

"We need to find exactly the right Sunni leader, but even then we are not dealing with rationality. It's a case of stroking the kidnappers' ego."

He said British diplomats working for Bigley's release were "the best I have encountered," and that Prime Minister Tony Blair's policy of refusing concessions was correct.

But he warned that Tawhid wal Jihad was probably holding out for more than the release of female prisoners from US-run prisons in Iraq, of which US officials say there are only two, both weapons scientists.

Its real aim, White told The Times, is to cause "total and utter havoc".

"This is a real attempt to destabilise the restoration of Iraq, to remove the American presence, to try to restore Islamic rule," he said.

http://www.turkishpress.com/turkishpress/news.asp?ID=28444

UN nuclear agency calls for fight against 'nuclear terrorism'

VIENNA (AFP) Sep 24, 2004

The United Nations atomic agency called on Friday for greater international cooperation in the face of potential terrorist attacks using nuclear or radiological weapons.

The 137-nation International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) adopted a resolution calling for joint efforts to improve border security in order to prevent the illegal trafficking of nuclear materials.

The text called on "all member states to continue to provide political, financial and technical support... to improve nuclear and radiological security and prevent nuclear and radiological terrorism".

It came in response to growing fears that extremist groups could use nuclear materials to build a "dirty bomb" -- a device that would spew radioactive debris over a city, making parts of it uninhabitable for years.

IAEA records point to a dramatic rise in the smuggling of radiological substances, the raw material for a dirty bomb, and the United States claims that the Al-Qaeda extremist network is seeking to acquire such weapons.

The IAEA resolution urged member states to provide the agency's nuclear security fund with the necessary political and financial support.

It also welcomed the agency's initiative to assist states in planning future nuclear security activities and encouraged it to prepare an annual report charting progress in the field.

The resolution, passed shortly before the end of an IAEA conference in Vienna, follows others adopted by the agency since the September 11 attacks against the United States in 2001.

http://www.spacewar.com/2004/040924191923.u8vgn8dq.html

US senator urges US to confront Iran on nuclear weapons program

WASHINGTON (AFP) Sep 23, 2004

A prominent Democratic senator urged the Bush administration Thursday to directly engage Iran over its suspected nuclear weapons program and that preemptive military force should not be ruled out.
"I don't want to saber rattle, but I wouldn't take anything off the table," said Senator Joe Lieberman, who made an unsuccessful run for the Democratic presidential nomination this year.

Lieberman added that the use of force should be a last resort, and expressed hope that a consistent US-European diplomatic approach "will make that never even a topic of actively serious consideration."

But he told defense reporters Iran "is on a path to develop a very significant nuclear weapons program" and is working hard to develop missiles with ranges capable of striking targets in Europe as well as the Middle East.

"If it were up to me, I would try to get the United States in direct communication with the Iranian leadership but on a very tough, tough basis -- let's decide what the future is going to be," he told defense reporters here.

"You have to marshall diplomatic support with the UN, but in the end they've got to feel we're really serious about this for them to stop the development of nuclear weapons, which in my opinion they are on a headlong course to develop," he said.

Iran's clerical regime insists its nuclear program is for peaceful purposes, and that it does not seek to develop nuclear weapons.

Defying UN pressure, President Mohammad Khatami has said Iran will not give up uranium enrichment efforts, which could be used to produce bomb-making material.

http://www.spacewar.com/2004/040923184548.7bg8rpqr.html

This is an interesting account:

***

How close was the Mideast to nuclear war?

TEL AVIV, (UPI) Israel, Sept. 23 , 2004 -

The day Egypt and Syria stunned Israel by launching the 1973 Yom Kippur War, Israel's then Defense Minister Moshe Dayan ordered the preparation of a weapon said to be a ballistic missile capable of carrying a nuclear warhead.

In a lengthy account published in Friday's edition of the Yediot Aharonot newspaper that reached the stands Thursday after passing through Israel's censors, the newspaper's Ronen Bergman and Gil Meltzer said the Israeli defense establishment was initially optimistic about the fighting, believing it would easily repel the onslaught.

Nevertheless, Dayan ordered preparation of very extreme means of retaliation -- the Ivri, which according to foreign press reports is another name for the ground-to-ground missile, Jericho, capable of carrying also a nuclear warhead.

The Yediot Aharonot reported that shortly before the fighting began Dayan asked at a meeting: Is the Ivri ready?

The then chief of General Staff, Lt. Gen. David Elazar, answered: Not ready to fire.

Dayan's adjutant, Arieh Bar-On, said It would be ready within 12 hours.

The Ivri should be moved at night and be ready, Dayan ordered.

Three days later, an Israeli counter-strike in the Sinai desert failed. Grief gripped the officers at the supreme command headquarters. Some people cried, the newspaper said.

Elazar advocated, A dramatic effect, that Syria will be torn, that someone will scream ... 'Syria is being destroyed!' Elazar talked of bombing power stations and other targets that would burn as well as ruthless air attacks on two armored divisions even if we lose planes.

The apocalyptic atmosphere affected everybody ... and in The Pit (the fortified underground army headquarters) there were thoughts of recommending to the Cabinet the most extreme measures against Arab states, the newspaper said.

It quoted a former Deputy Chief of General Staff, Maj. Gen. Israel Tal, as having said in a top secret forum that on that day, Oct. 9, There was a feeling that the national existence is in danger. ... The goal was to stop the war quickly.

Eventually the tide turned, the United States airlifted arms to Israel, and the war ended with the Israelis reaching 101 kilometers (63 miles) from Cairo and closer than ever to Damascus.

The Israelis violated a cease-fire and encircled the Egyptian Third Army. The Soviet Union demanded Israel pull back, threatened to intervene unilaterally, and the United States reacted by declaring a DefconIII nuclear alert.

Yediot Aharonot said Washington took the Soviet threat very seriously because sensors the United States had buried in the Mediterranean Sea detected nuclear radiation emanating from a Soviet vessel that sailed over them.

Three days later, U.S. satellite pictures showed the Russians had deployed two Scud missile brigades in northern Egypt with nuclear warheads that were not concealed.

In the showdown with the United States, the Russians blinked first.

The newspaper said that after the war, then Prime Minister Golda Meir asked then U.S. Secretary of State Henry Kissinger to negotiate a deal with Syria.

Israel would withdraw from the strategically important Mount Hermon in exchange for the repatriation of 28 Israeli pilots the Syrians had caught.

Yediot Aharonot said Israel's main concern was to return Squadron Commander Lt. Col. Avraham Lanir in order to protect the dramatic secret he had.

The newspaper could not say what that secret was.

Only Lanir and several Air Force reservists knew, and were authorized to operate, certain types of armament, Yediot Aharonot said.

The secrets Lanir knew, Could have influenced the fate of the entire campaign, Yediot Aharonot said.

Lanir was captured on Oct. 13, 1973, when he flew into a missile trap while on patrol deep inside Syrian territory. He turned his damaged plane towards Israel and bailed out, but the wind carried him back to the Syrian side. A Syrian jeep got to him before the Israelis did.

Lanir did not break down under Syrian pressure. In a hospital, he told another wounded Israeli pilot his hands and legs were broken.

Another pilot quoted a very senior Syrian officer who had visited him in jail as having said that an Israeli squadron commander was kept there. The Syrian officer said the Israeli pilot was a man who did not talk.

Lanir's body was returned to Israel in June 1974 and his widow received a Medal of Courage that he earned. Only one other prisoner of war received such a medal.

The citation said Lanir parachuted and reached the ground alive, was caught and taken prisoner. Lt. Col. Avraham Lair was tortured to death by his interrogators and did not reveal any information.

http://www.spacewar.com/upi/2004/0923-182846-mideast-1973.html

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