If you were to look at the records of both candidates prior to 9/11, you probably wouldn't have been able to tell what either one would have done.
Perhaps some think that it would be better to go with one that would have learned from the others mistakes, and try something new...than to continue with one that they disagree with.
Remember what Alexander Hamilton said "Those who stand for nothing fall for anything"
If you were blind and ignorant of the past then you could not predict. If you knew ANYTHING about Kerry the prediction is easy.