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Dear EllaMinnow,

Answer:

I don't really know for sure.

What I know is that they're saying that the respondents to the poll were 38% R, 31% D, and 31% I.

Then there is this:

Bush receives 94% of Rs, 14% of Ds, and 45% of Is.
Kerry receives 4% of Rs, 84% of Ds, and 40% of Is.
(This data is taken from the internals reported by Newsweek.)

If you do the arithmetic, it looks like this:

For Mr. Bush:

R 94% of 38% = .3572
D 14% of 31% = .0434
I 45% of 31% = .1395

.3572 + .0434 + .1395 = .5401, or 54.01%

For Mr. Kerry,

R 04% of 38% = .0152
D 82% of 31% = .2542
I 40% of 27% = .124

.0152 + .2542 + .124 = .3934, or 39.34%

Thus, the raw results, which can also be derived from the number of interviewees for each candidate, come to about:

Bush: 54%
Kerry: 40%

But Newsweek reports 52% - 41%.

That suggests to me that they weighted the respondents in a different proportion than that which they got from the raw numbers. In other words, they counted the Dems more heavily than the Reps, to make up for the discrepancy in their raw numbers.

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