At least you are willing to "guess". And that's about as good as we've seen for our money on The Weather Channel.
NOT being critical of TWC :~)
sw
The Weather Channel and Accuweather are both in a tough position. They basically can't afford to be wrong, lest being accused of putting people in harm's way (the Government's weather center, you see, isn't accountable -- but the private sector is!). They best they can really do is suggest that "THIS IS THE OFFICIAL TRACK,
but we kinda think this is another possibility to consider (said in a low voice).
That's unfortunately the reality of the situation. I would much rather see some real analysis, debate, and educated conjecture. I think there's a lot of merit and even marketing in that. But in 20 years, the Weather Channel hasn't even dared broach that.