[Strategerist]

The ECMWF is a European weather model. The GFS is the primary American weather model, which runs 4 times a day, rather than twice as the ECMWF.

The GFS is know for "flopping around" (changing its solution) often.

A large number of private meteorologists consider the EC far superior to the GFS, though I think that superiority may be somewhat overblown.

[tutstar]

Thanks!!

[TechJunkYard]

You can run the models for yourself. http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/

There is still wide disagreement between the models about what happens when Frances gets near the coast. GFDL and AVN bring it up the Savannah River and over Aiken SC in 120 hours or so (GFDL has so far been persistent about a South Carolina landfall). NOGAPS takes it across South Florida and back into the Gulf and up toward Mobile, AL. The UKMET run brings it across Central FL in almost a straight line and it ends up at the mouth of the Mississippi River.

Everybody in the southeast should be paying close attention to this storm, and getting prepared to bug out if necessary -- it has the potential to be real monster. Very few people around here thought that Hugo would be able to cause the damage around Charlotte and Hickory that it did. That thing surprised us all.