[Law is not justice but process]

Many in Charleston learned their lesson in Hugo. Even then, the worst part of the storm went over the least populated part of the coast. In 1989 there were very few living between Whitehall Terrace and the Santee River: over that area the storm surge was as much as 24 feet. If a 24 foot storm surge came over Myrtle Beach, there would be many a dead hardhead who never got the chance to regret their decision not to evacuate. That is just natural selection.

I dare say that many have moved to the coast between Pawleys Island and Edisto Beach since 1989. Those newcomers have no idea how bad Hugo was. Further, many on the fringes of Hugo, both in Myrtle Beach and south on Kiawah, Seabrook, Edisto, and the Sea Islands think they have seen the worst a hurricane has to offer. They haven't. Ask those people who rode out Hugo in Lincoln High in McCllelanville and who had to climb into the rafters of the gym to keep from drowning in that 24 foot surge.

By definition, only a small part of the area affected by a hurricane gets the heft of the storm (almost always those about 15 to 40 miles north of the point of the eye's landfall). It happened to Galveston Island in 1900 and wiped out the city (and 8,000 lives). We got lucky in Hugo and the heft went over the Francis Marion Forest. If Hugo went ashore 30 miles to the south that 24 foot surge would have come right over the battery into downtown Charleston.

I hate to sound preachy, but having seen what a category 4 storm can do, I would advise you make your evacuation plan as if the heft of the storm were coming over your house. The National Hurricane Center does a good job of predicting where a storm will go within 50 to 100 miles. They cannot predict exactly how bad it will get at a specific point. Again, ignore the thin line.

[Hoodlum91]

Good thing to keep in mind is the SIZE of this storm. This sucker is larger in area than Andrew and Hugo. Latest reports have hurricane strength winds extending 80 miles from the center. That's a 160 mile radius of hurricane strength winds. Tropical storm strength winds (sustained over 40 mph) extend over 150 miles from center. That's over 300 miles diameter of TS strength.

The forecaster up here (VA) said that Frances is 5 times as big as Charley was when it hit. And Frances still has a day or more over very warm water.