The intensity forecast is modified only slightly from the previous package. Upper-level winds are favorable through at least 36-48 hr...so Frances should remain strong. A slight weakening is indicated at 72 hr based on land interaction and some possible westerly shear.Prayers for Floridians.
Shear is one thing...the gulf stream is another. The shear might effect it near landfall but the fuel will be right there to replace it.