[alancarp]

Wednesday Morning Model Roundup, with their strike projections:

ETA - Miami, 6pm FRI, crossing to Ft. Myers

GFDL - mid-Georgia coast, 8PM SUN., then riding up I-16. This model has consistently been moving further west for two days.

GFS - follows same track as GFDL. Notably, these models stall Frances off the coast of Melbourne/Cocoa for nearly 24 hours before moving it up the coast. That's probably the worst case scenario for Cape Canaveral.

European - Vero Beach/Melbourne, 8AM Sat Morning. This is significant as the Euro has been consistently doing the 'Andrew Track' for 2+ days... and has suddenly flipped to the consensus.

UKMET - Ft. Pierce to Tampa, strike time 8PM Friday evening. The Tampa crossing seems unlikely, given the angle of approach, and the frictional effect of the hurricane. Much more likely to 'skip' along the coast and go to Orlando or Sanford from there.

NOGAPS - Roughly West Palm Beach, 8AM Saturday. Crosses to Tampa.

Accuweather isn't quarreling with the Hurricane Center's track, but really likes the GFDL solution path. In their position, it's hard to argue with the 'Official' forecast, but they're at least saying "stay alert" to our friends in Georgia.

Since this is a political discussion forum, it's probably also right and proper to mention the political impacts of a Florida East Coast strike. Brevard County (Melbourne/Palm Bay/Cocoa/Titusville/Merritt Island/etc.) is HEAVILY Republican. Palm Beach County is HEAVILY Democrat. I believe the Vero-to-Port St. Lucie area is Democrat teritory. Ft. Pierce/Stuart may lean GOP. There could certainly be fewer voters in November in whatever area gets hammered by this, unless all-out efforts are made to recover.

[alancarp]

Watch what latitude Frances is at when it crosses the 74 degree meridian. The further north of 24, the better. 23.5-24.0 suggests Vero to GA; less than 23 degrees suggests Ft. Pierce to Miami (all of this in the absence of significant turns, which no model is projecting right now).

[Dog Gone]

UKMET and LBAR models predict Frances continuing west into the Gulf after crossing Florida, much like the Euro model had been doing.

Nobody knows where this thing is going yet. I guess the good thing is that Charley raised everyone's awareness. I hope.

[cogitator]

UKMET - Ft. Pierce to Tampa, strike time 8PM Friday evening. The Tampa crossing seems unlikely, given the angle of approach, and the frictional effect of the hurricane. Much more likely to 'skip' along the coast and go to Orlando or Sanford from there.

If it comes in south of Ft. Pierce (West Palm or Lake Worth), the frictional effect could bring it right into Tampa (but fortunately there wouldn't be a storm surge).

A bad aspect of that track would be: it would cross over some of the areas devastated by Charley in south-central FL. Yeesh.