Hurricane Frances : 2004-09-01 (New Thread)

Various | 2004-09-01 | Patton@Bastogne

[Patton@Bastogne]

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Free Republic Community:



Welcome to Wednesday's Hurricane Frances news-twist !

It looks like a Melbourne Landfall after all, once again (to Section9's worst fears) churning it's way North along the Coast Highway ...



Excellent Hurricane Frances Websites:

HURRICANE ALLEY

U.S. Weather Observers






Patton@Bastogne
Free Republic Member since 1998.



General George S. Patton Jr. Website

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[rang1995]

dosn't it seem in that loop the eye is less defined a drop???

[PJ-Comix]

FRANCES REMAINS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 KNOTS.

This is good news for South Florida. This means that Frances is has switched about 10 degrees more to the north in the past day. It will be interesting to see if this trend continues.

[alancarp]

This actually hints at a pet peeve of mine. Please permit a rant.

In recent history, whenever an evacuated area has been totally trashed by a storm, it has typically required 5 DAYS before authorities permit residents to return. Genuine helpers have to wait even longer.

I know, I know - public safety and looter prevention - I've heard all that. But time and time again, I see this and keep thinking "Gee, you're trying to encourage people to get out of harm's way, and then don't let them come back to help assess their own damage!" Such a plan doesn't exactly encourage people to leave if they know they can't return.

In these situations, it certainly seems that everybody involved turns 'Republican.' By this I mean the thoughts of "nobody's gonna be here to help me, I'm going to have to take care of myself, my family, and my property. And that is true to a great extent. But when the local authorities -- under the guise of safety -- prevent people from doing that very thing, they undermine the very pioneer spirit that I speak of.

There has GOT to be a way to get people back home quicker: without this, people will try and stay -- and people will die.

</ rant>

[malakhi]

Stay safe. Prayers for you and for everyone in Frances's path.

[NotJustAnotherPrettyFace]

Before ..... and ..... After - A giant oak (4 1/2' in diameter) covers the Reflection Pool.

[Law is not justice but process]

Very true. This is the largest storm I remember since Gilbert. Like Gilbert, it is undergoing repeated cycles of eye wall replacement. I guess that is characteristic of these very large storms. I certainly hope it doesn't get as powerful as Gilbert was out in the Caribbean (I seem to recall the lowest measured pressure was 889 mb). I hope that, like Gilbert, it looses much of its strength before coming ashore.

[NotJustAnotherPrettyFace]

It's certainly easy to understand the mindsets of the people who choose to stay with their property.

[weatherFrEaK]

The eye will typically look less defined as the eyewall goes through the ERC. The small eye will be replaced by a larger one in another 12 hours or so. As the new eye emerges, it will clear again. Francis went through this process about 36 hours ago...kinda neat to watch the cycle process.

[Law is not justice but process]

It is going through another eye wall replacement. It will get a larger eye and a slightly higher pressure for a few hours, then probably resume strengthening as the new eye wall becomes dominant and the eye diameter decreases again.

[Gabz]

I understand exactly what you are saying, particularly regarding reasons for people not heeding evacuation orders...........but in many cases it is understandable about not letting the residents in right away to make assessments.

It takes time to get roads cleared, downed power lines taken care of, unstable structures, possible contaminated water, etc.......there is much danger in the aftermath of these storms, even though the storm itself has passed.

This is in no way defending overly long periods of time before allowing residents to stay, but more times than not they are erring on the side of caution.

[NonValueAdded]

Consider that size factor for the eye wall. One degree is 69.1 miles at sea level (Florida) so for what ever coordinates are given for the eye, it is almost half a degree in either direction just for the eye. Yet another reason not to focus on the thin track line!

[ksen]

That's exactly the reason my fil doesn't want to leave. He saw what happened after Charley where the people on the island couldn't back to their homes for days afterward. He said that's not going to happen to him.

[Hoodlum91]

I know people are impressed by the wind speed, but I'm with you. I don't like the fact that every report has the pressure dropping another 3 mb or so.

I don't think it will become a Gilbert, but this girl is deadly.

[NonValueAdded]

Postpone the trip! there will be a large evacuation from the east coast so #1 it is gonna get crowded, #2 remember what Charlie did to central Florida - don't consider that to be a safe place to be, #3 we could use the hotel space for evacuees so optional travel should be postponed, #4 unless there is a very good reason for her to be here, why risk it?

[NotJustAnotherPrettyFace]

Yes, that visible loop for any hurricane is always amazing to watch.

[Law is not justice but process]

It is fascinating to watch, even when you know the potential havoc the storm might wreak. We in SC are still watching this storm closely. Florida may be the target zone now, but that can change a lot in 3 days.

[groanup]

You bring up some good points. Thanks.

[weatherFrEaK]

Yet another reason not to focus on the thin track line!

I agree, the NHC should do away with the forecast line/points for the public products and keep them for scientific/verification purposes only. Leave the cone for public digestion.

[NotJustAnotherPrettyFace]

.mp3 Audio clip of Jesu, Joy of Man's Desiring (J.S. Bach) played by Milford Myhre, Bok Tower Garden's resident carillonneur

[numberonepal]

I don't like the fact that every report has the pressure dropping another 3 mb or so.

She's been fluctuating in pressure between about 935 and 939. The latest GOES Visible Loop and Infrared show her looking a little shabby right now, but the NWS did say that she would fluctuate. Plus, she just crossed over into the bath water last night.