With this historical track:
Of course, you can also find tracks that curve out to see from a point north of the Lesser Antilles and east of the Bahamas. But this system definitely merits watching.
Posted on 08/26/2004 9:44:58 AM PDT by Dog Gone
Tropical Storm Frances Advisory Number 7
Statement as of 11:00 am EDT on August 26, 2004
...Frances getting stronger over the open Atlantic...could become a hurricane later today...
at 11 am EDT...1500z...the center of Tropical Storm Frances was located near latitude 13.1 north...longitude 45.0 west or about 1105 miles...1775 km...east of the Lesser Antilles.
Frances is moving toward the west-northwest near 17 mph...28 km/hr. This general motion is forecast to continue today...with a gradual decrease in forward speed expected by tonight.
Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph...110 km/hr...with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours and Frances could become a hurricane later today.
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 75 miles ...120 km from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb...29.23 inches.
Repeating the 11 am EDT position...13.1 N... 45.0 W. Movement toward...west-northwest near 17 mph. Maximum sustained winds... 70 mph. Minimum central pressure... 990 mb.
The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 5 PM EDT.
Forecaster Stewart
Frances has become much better organized during the past 12 hours... as noted by the tight coiling of both the inner and outer convective bands...and an occasional hint of a banding eye feature. A Dvorak satellite intensity estimate of t3.5 was obtained from both TAFB and SAB. However...banding features and inner-core convection have improved since the 12z fixes...so I have continued the trend from the previous advisory of going slightly higher than the satellite estimates are indicating. Upper-level outflow is good in all quadrants and is becoming more circular.
The initial motion remains 290/15. Frances has basically remained on track the past 24 hours. However...the NHC model guidance is not in good agreement after 36 hours. The NOGAPS...UKMET...and ECMWF take Frances more northwestward thoughout the forecast period...whereas the GFDL...GFS...and the Canadian models take the cyclone more west-northwestward and even westward. The main differences lie in how much erosion of the subtropical ridge occurs north of Frances in 36-72 hours as a large extratropical low off the Canadian Maritimes digs southward. The UKMET and NOGAPS model show more erosion of the ridge...while the GFS...GFDL...and Canadian models lift out the upper-low more quickly...which allows the ridge to build back westward to the north of the cyclone after 72 hours. The past 24 hour trend in water vapor imagery suggests that the upper-low has probably pushed about as far south as it can...which would support the GFS-GFDL-Canadian scenario of a more westward track by 96 hours. The past 4 GFDL runs have successively shifted the track more westward with each run...while the GFS has a left of track bias. Therefore...the official track was shifted slightly left of the previous forecast and left of the latest GFDL run...but not as far west or as fast as the GFS and Canadian models.
Frances may be on a fast-track in its development process...but I would prefer to wait and see if any dry air on the east side gets wrapped into the center. However...if a distinct eye appears later today...then rapid intensification...and also making Frances a major hurricane in 48-72 hours like the GFDL and SHIPS models are indicating...will have to be considered on the next advisory.
Okay, who's got the hurricane repellant?
They initially had this system being pulled up into the central Atlantic by a trough - but now it seems Frances will be pulled slightly north, miss the island but then head more westerly. But five days is a long, long ways out for hurricane forecasts.
LIGHTEN UP, FRANCES!!!
HAHAHA.... that's a great movie!
It's still way out in the Atlantic and a long way to go. Will it grow or will it dissipate, lots of time to do either.
With this historical track:
Of course, you can also find tracks that curve out to see from a point north of the Lesser Antilles and east of the Bahamas. But this system definitely merits watching.
Right now they're hedging that it will become a major hurricane. Then it all depends on whether a trough picks it up and pulls it northward.
I didn't like the suggestion that it could become a major hurricane. Category one or two 'canes are hassle enough.
It would probably not be in a position to threaten that area for at least a week.
Yesterday they were talking about shear affecting the system over the weekend, but that seems to have gone out of the forecast.
It's great we can watch this on satellite. We're all going to be hurricane experts, sensitive to the nuances of warm and cold fronts, the jet stream, temperature of the Gulf Stream, and wind-blown dust from the Sahara Desert. A lot of Floridians are probably watching if their power has been restored from the last one.
Very similar location where they formed, and very similar initial tracks. However, Frances could become a major hurricane ... and then fizzle out or swing to the north. The key time will be Sunday through Tuesday - hopefully the front that is coming through the East then will pull Frances northward and keep it in the ocean.
When they were watching this earlier this week, they were leaning toward this storm heading harmlessly north in the Atlantic. Granted, it could still do that, but anytime a hurricane has formed and is moving in the direction of the US, it gets my attention.
The longer it waits to move north the longer it stays in the power zone and the less likely it is to move north and blow itself out over water. The probable path diagram is very wide now, but has a rough direction. We'll just have to watch and wait since we don't have the technology to do anything else. Maybe HAARP . . ., nah.
"Okay, who's got the hurricane repellant?"
I imagine that FRANCEs will turn and go the other way before it can do much damage.
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