I think rudy will run only if Bush wins. The theory is it be a easy race because a lot of dems will vote for Rudy because they like him and be "setting Hilly free" to run for president. If Kerry wins not sure because Hillary will fight for the seat because no where to go.
If Bush wins, Rudy ignores the NY Senate and Governors House and goes for the Presidency.
If Kerry wins, Rudy is the natural challenger for him, and a strong one at that. He is the best card the GOP has to play.
NY isn't concerned about 'setting Hilly free' - I lived there for 33 years and she is NYC's celebrity Senator. There is no need to set her free as she can run for the PResidency in 2008 as a sitting Senator - it's done all the time (look at Kerry).
The truth is, I don't think Rudy can win the Senate seat from Hilly, though I think he can win NY State in a Rudy-Hilly Presidential Challeneg. Makes sense? Not to me either, but that's my feeling.