Shades of :
THE DRAGON'S FURY SERIES
A techno-thriller series about America and Modern World War
Posted on 08/11/2004 9:11:47 AM PDT by JOAT
During the last several months, there have been numerous hints in the Chinese and Taiwanese media indicating that war is more likely than believed here in the West.
Some strategists suggest that the 2008 Olympics scheduled for Beijing constitute a key benchmark, after which a war may be possible.
However, it is clear that both nations are preparing for a conflict in the near term, and that 2008 may not be as pivotal as some experts believe.
In fact, China’s media have been repeating the mantra in their news reports that the People’s Liberation Army is preparing to gain a victory in this “internal military conflict in a high-tech environment.”
Chinese war planners have studied carefully the recent U.S.-Iraq War, a war that demonstrated to PLA strategists that U.S. military might is derived from its technological superiority.
China’s military experts conducted similar studies after America’s first Gulf War. One military study written by two Chinese colonels entitled “Unrestricted Warfare” suggested that China could not compete with America’s technological prowess.
Instead, China had to develop “asymmetrical” warfare to defeat the U.S. in any conflict. Interestingly, “Unrestricted Warfare” became an instant best seller in China after the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks. In the 1998 book, the Chinese colonels suggested that a successful bombing by Osama bin Laden of the World Trade Center would be an example of this new “unrestricted warfare” concept.
Apparently, China feels much better positioned after the recent Iraq War and wants to challenge the U.S. on a technological level.
Almost instantly after the Iraq War, in May 2003, China’s President and Communist Party General Secretary Hu Jintao declared at the party’s Politburo meeting the necessity of “active support of national defense and modernization of the army.”
Hu emphasized the need for further integrating information technology (IT) into the PLA and mobilizing China’s entire scientific and technological potential for PLA’s needs.
As a result, the PLA’s modernization in these areas has accelerated significantly.
Since the second half of 2003, the PLA has been engaged in the latest stage of its RMA – Revolution in Military Affairs – program, which was officially announced by the chairman of China Central Military Commission, Jiang Zemin, in his speech on Sept. 1, 2003.
He emphasized that that PLA should transform itself into a “smaller and much smarter science- and technology-based army.”
Jiang defined the major tasks of new PLA reform as follows:
· Reducing PLA’s ranks, primarily ground forces, by 200,000.
· Maximizing IT and other advanced technologies – including nanotechnologies, space technologies, electromagnetic weapons, etc.
· Improving the educational and qualitative training of PLA servicemen.
· Transforming the PLA into an “army of one” that is comparatively smaller and of very high quality, similar to the U.S. Army.
· Acquiring the most advanced weaponry.
The Russia Connection
During 2003 and 2004, Russia – jointly with Belarus and Ukraine – has been a major source of advanced weapons for the PLA.
According to official figures from Russia’s weapons export state monopoly, Rosoboronexport, Russia’s total weapons export in 2003 approached $5.7 billion, making Russia the second largest arms exporter after the U.S. (Please note that China is arguably the leading arms exporter in quantity of arms transported, as its weaponry is considerably less expensive than that of the U.S.)
China has purchased 38 percent of Russian arms exports, or around $2.2 billion.
If one takes into account the weapons deliveries from Belarus and Ukraine to China, along with “double use” nuclear and space technologies supplied by Russia to China, then Chinese real arms imports from greater Russia would, in my estimation, be $4 billion.
Clearly, Russia and her allies have been a huge factor supporting the PLA in its rapid modernization and planned confrontation with the U.S.
3-Pronged Strategy
The PLA has been following its “three-way policy” of advanced weapons acquisition.
This three-pronged strategy calls for China to gain technologically advanced weaponry through (1) imports, (2) joint (Chinese-foreign) weapons R&D, and (3) independent weapons R&D within China.
The details of this mechanism were given in the article “China’s military affairs in 2003,” published by the Taiwanese journal Zhonggong yanjiu (China Communism Research) in February 2004.
According to Taiwanese experts, though weapons import and joint R&D still play the major role in PLA modernization, the role of “independent R&D” has been increasing gradually.
Appointed in March 2003, new Chinese Defense Minister (former chief of Defense Ministry’s Armament Division) Col.-Gen. Cao Gangchuan was personally in charge of this work.
He has tried to decrease China’s dependence on Russian arms and increase the share of advanced weapons imports from Germany, France and Israel.
China also is engaged in joint weapons R&D projects with EU and NATO countries, including R&D of mid-range air-to-air missiles and highly precise satellite positioning (Galileo project).
The Air Force
China believes that in a conflict with Taiwan, air dominance will be key to a quick victory.
The PLA has been beefing up its PLA Air Force (PLAAF) and aircraft troops of the PLA Navy (PLAN).
Reportedly, by the end of February 2004, the PLAAF purchased from Russia 76 SU-30 MKK fighters belonging to the advanced “4 plus” generation.
PLAN air troops obtained 24 even more advanced SU-30 MKK fighters.
There is no data regarding future deliveries of the “finished” SU-30 from Russia to China; however, the Chinese aircraft industry is more or less capable now of producing the SU-30 as well as other fighters belonging to the fourth generation, or close to this level.
Dramatic modernization of China’s First Aviation Industry Corp., or AVIC-1, from 2001 to 2004, is of principal importance here (the data in this account are given in the above-mentioned article in the Zhonggong yanjiu journal).
Four major companies are developing China’s jet-manufacturing capability. Interestingly, each of these companies recently underwent radical modernization and upgrading, including advanced equipment obtained from Europe’s Airbus, claiming the help is for “cooperation in passenger aircraft production.”
Shenyang Aircraft Corp. continued, in the past year, to produce SU-27 SK (J-11) heavy fighters from Russian kits at a rate of at least 25 units annually, and the share of Chinese-made components surpassed 70 percent.
The same company now prepares SU-30 MKK (J-11A) fighters for manufacturing.
In the frame of “independent R&D” within China, the Chengdu Aircraft Corp. has mastered the serial production of medium J-10 fighters and FC-1 light fighters. These planes reportedly can match the U.S. F-16 fighter.
Here are some other developments in China’s air wing:
· Guizhou Aircraft Corp. developed the advanced Shanying fighter-trainer, while Xian Aircraft Corp. mostly finished developing the new generation of FBC-1 (JH-7) long-range fighter-bomber, which became known as JH-7A.
· Other enterprises, belonging to AVIC-1, mastered production of KAB-500 guided bombs and several kinds of air-to-air and air-to ground missiles.
· By the end of 2003, the new generation of Flying Leopard, i.e., JH-7A, was being tested. This fighter-bomber’s weapons include new air-to-air and air-to-ground missiles of beyond-vision range, guided bombs, etc. This aircraft is adapted for anti-radar reconnaissance, effective low-altitude strikes against large naval vessels, and general strikes of ground-based and naval targets.
· By the end of 2004, as a result of supply from Russia and increased fighter production at AVIC-1 subsidiaries, the number of advanced fighters of various kinds in PLAN air troops and the PLAAF – including SU-27 (J-11), SU-30 (J-11A), J-10, FC-1, Shanying, FBC-1 (JH-7) and JH-7A – could surpass an estimated 400 units.
The Sea Component
China also sees its navy as critical in any successful assault on Taiwan.
The PLA Navy (PLAN) has numerous Chinese-Russian projects under way this year and next, including:
· Purchase of two Russian Sovremenny destroyers, equipped with improved ship-to-ship supersonic cruise missiles (SSM) Sunburn 3M80MBE of 240 km range.
Initially, Sunburn had a range of 160 km. However, in 2001-2003, Raduga Design Bureau in Dubna (about 150 km north of Moscow) designed, under PLAN’s orders, a much more lethal version of SSM.
Very probably, serial production of new SSM would be mastered in China, so it would be installed on two Sovremenny destroyers, purchased by PLAN in 1999-2000, on Chinese-built Luhu- and Luhai-class destroyers as well as Jiangwei-class frigates. According to media reports in the Hong Kong and Taiwan media, two new Sovremenny destroyers could be transferred to PLAN before the end of 2005.
· Purchase of eight Kilo submarines, equipped by “super-advanced” 3M54E (CLUB-S) submarine-launched anti-ship missiles.
In 2003, China already obtained 50 missiles of this kind, which would greatly improve PLAN’s striking capacity. China intends to organize production of these missiles. They probably also could be used on Chinese-built conventional submarines of the Song class.
New Kilo submarines could enter PLAN service in 2005 or the first half of 2006. (Information regarding destroyers and conventional submarines was repeated in several articles in Zhonggong yanjiu in January 2003 through February 2004 and in multiple media reports from Hong Kong during the same period.)
· Construction of “093 project” nuclear attack submarines and the “094 project” strategic nuclear submarine, using Russian plans and technology, at Huludao (a port city in northeast Liaoning province) military shipbuilding plant. By the end of 2005, PLAN would have in its service at least two “093 project” and at least one “094 project” nuclear submarines.
Reportedly, Russia had to make significant improvements in design and weapons of these submarines, in accordance with Chinese customers’ requirements.
Along with Russian contracts is the construction of a new generation of destroyers, frigates and conventional submarines at modernized shipbuilding plants in Dalian, Shanghai, Qingdao and Wuhan cities. An upgraded PLA could be capable pf establishing sea control around Taiwan in 2008.
Aso important is the fact that both the PLAAF and PLAN would be equipped, by 2008, with perfect military information technology systems, more precisely by C4ISR (command, control, computers, communication, intelligence, surveillance, reconnaissance) systems, which would make the use of the listed weapon systems much more effective.
ping
We can thank the Klintoon Administration for allowing the sale of teh "5-axis" milling machine necessary for the manufacture of advanced aerospace body designs. It was on the Pentagon and State Dept's DO NOT EXPORT list but what the hell, what's National Security to Bubba in comparison to "donations".
Any questions as to why we need an anti-ballistic missile system?
They fail to realize that their country will be vaporized by the Trident submarine force if they do a first strike scenerio .
Shades of :
Seen this?
Just asking ... and not liking the likely answer.
Sobering.
Thanks.
A BIG thank you to that worthless NIXON
We will NOT protect Taiwan from Chinese aggression if they do not attack a carrier group first.
That being said, I think it is safe to assume we will use naval power as a show of force leading up to any invasion, and China may 'sunburn' a carrier group. That would certainly alter our stance and force us into war with China.
Thanks to Bubba and the current wave of 'outsourcing,' the Chinese have advanced so rapidly that they will be a problem, if not now, then within 5 years certainly.
Irresponsible speculation of a very low order. Not quite in the tin-foil category, but close.
Nixon helped the cause of globalism tremendously. He took us off a real standard for our currency and started the process of bringing China out of its insulated, isolationist stance. Not to mention creating a crisis that degraded the office of the presidency.
Its alot like the lead up to WWII...we gave so much away to the Japs just to have it come back and bite us in the end. Some folks are slow learners.
Both are in need of tooling up....I imagine details of contracts with Euro machinery/computer software etc will show up on the net..a hint to what degree they are putting funds to this.
Still...In Russias case..they make way more easy U.S. Dollars on the oil/gas thingy.
The need to do weapons sales is not a competition track..unless Putin really has some dark side..and is hoodwinking U.S. intel.
China may go the foreign weapons sale route.....several reasons for this in the insecure circles of the Court of Heaven in Bejing.
Russia continues to run its heavy lift Rocket/Satillite program...lots of tech perks as they continue to have a good reliable launch schedule.
China is said to be using Russian Space facilities in *Star City for EVA training and other Astronaut[Taikonaut] training.
Clearly both nations can sell weapons if they desire..several possible candidate nations...one being Saudi Arabia who is rumored to be parting company with the U.S...and may from a stronger Geostrategic projection with China.
This is my battle plan for the invasion of Taiwan. The war with China will be fought everywhere but the Straits of Formosa.
The weapons of choice will be bags of money under the table, liberal use of PR firms, lawyers and lobbyists and political pressure groups. Strategic targeting and coopting of think tanks. In this way they can prepare the ground politically in Washington, New York and Brussels so that, when they move on Taiwan, there will be key people in key positions who will deliver impassioned speaches decrying the loss of Taiwan, followed by senate investigations to determine who to blame for it, but no US forces will enter the fray.
The second step is to encourage investment in the Chinese economy. Someone who has a billion dollar investment on the Chinese mainland isn't going to risk it by supporting Taiwanese independence, and this includes Taiwanese industrialists just as surely as it includes Americans and EU bankers.
The third step will be to support anti-US forces in the Americas so as to restrict US freedom of action in our own region, and preferably to tie us down in a guerrilla action here. This combined with anti-US muslim insurgencies will split our force and make any effective help to Taiwan difficult, even if we want to. More importantly though it would give effective political cover to excuse whoever happens to be in the White House when it happens. The present occupation of Iraq, which requires the lion's share of our force, would be the perfect situation from China's point of view, we couldn't do much to help Taiwan and no one would blame the president for not helping.
Obviously, a president who insists on UN approval before launching military action would be even better for Chinese purposes, as by the time a Chinese veto was overridden on the Security Council, the war would be over.
Fourthly, China needs to make sure that her neighbors are sufficiently intimidated that they would deny us basing for any anti-China military action. That won't be hard.
And lastly, they need to modernize their force, while denying Taiwan access to modern weaponry. If they can defeat Taiwan quickly, their previous political preparations will keep Taiwan's allies from getting involved, if it doesn't drag on for a long time.
But Iraq should have taught them a great deal about the power of money and preferential contracts to undermine alliances and international institutions. No one will risk billion dollar contracts, or the loss of billions of dollars of industrial assets, and pass up a twenty million dollar deposit to a personal bank account, just to risk political suicide and military defeat in a war with China.
Why is Red China so hot to trot to recapture Taiwan? Because they are an economic powerhouse? How has Hong Kong done under Red Rule?
Taiwan is not worth millions of lives. To hell with Taiwan. That's like spending $10,000 to collect 1 Cent.
We waited too damn long to do anything. Hell, way back when we should have let Gen. Patton hit Russia like he wanted and our position today would have been much better with China.
Also, if we used an ICBM with China that would be the begining of the end.
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