The quality of information and chatter seems to have plummeted recently. I think we're in the eye of the storm and can expect an attack any time in the coming month.
It seems the fringe elements of Al Qaeda (or at least their symapthizers) have either a) gone into hiding after the laptop computer bonanza, or b) been told to button their lips (a so-called "information blackout") prior to an operation. It was publicly reported that there was a climactic spike in "congratulatory" chatter almost two weeks ago, which was AFTER the Noor arrest, which indicates to me that there are many more layers to this threat than we are publicly aware of.
If Osama, indeed, shows up in a new video with some sort of chronological evidence of his continued existence, it will be a tremendous boost to morale in the ranks of Al Qaeda. I wrote a few days ago that it was my opinion that the recent wave of arrests in Pakistan was Musharraf's attempt to sanitize his image as a glorified concierge for extremist Islam in Pakistan, in similar anticipation of a major event in the United States or Europe.
My gut is telling me that the whole "death to Italy" campaign is too frantic by half -- i.e., it's a diversion of attention. Furthermore, the threat to the Olympics may also turn out to be a strategic resource-drainer of world attention, while operations are being put into motion in other places.
I'm no soothsayer, but Al Qaeda's legitimacy is on the line with all this bluster. Unless Zawahiri and bin Laden are both dead/captured, I can't imagine either one of them allowing so much hot air to go unconsummated without fear of appearing disingenuine to their own subjects. The most unsettling notion is that these clowns are "locked in" and have a high enough confidence of success that they are willing to verbally taunt the United States with the notion of "we're coming, and you can't stop us".
I can't see any strategic value of Al Qaeda attacking Europe. Of all the wishy-washy continents in the world, Europe tops them all. Let's face it, they're conquering France by populating France. They're conquering Belgium by populating Belgium. And with the Great Andalu -- er, er - Spanish Appeasement of 2004, they may feel they've already gotten the creme de la creme from that cow.
My hope is that we are not seeing some sort of achievement of critical mass in world events. It does not comfort me in any way to know that the Holy Father may be ending his journey (selfish of me, seeing how he suffers). The message of peace defeated the Soviets in the Eastern Bloc. It remains to be seen if the same message will be heeded by "secular" Islamics in places like Saudi Arabia and Egypt. I'm relatively confident it won't be. That leaves the world with an inevitable confrontation - between Iran and Israel, between North Korea and South Korea, and between the United States/Britain and Al Qaeda/Islamic Jihad.