It was a relatively quite weekend, too quiet. It is unlikely that I’ll be issuing another summary for at least a week or more as I am taking a bunch of Royal Rangers to Ranger Camp this week and will be far away from a computer.
Current National Homeland Defense threat level is YELLOW
(8/1/04) Local Threat Level ORANGE for NYC, N. New Jersey, D.C
1. Attack threat windows
8/16/04 Yesterday was the end of the second grace period for European countries and particularly Italy, to pull their troops from Iraq.
8/16/04 No change since 8/3/04. An operative, described as "credible" by British intelligence, told his debriefers that the attack would take place "60 days before the presidential election" which is held on Nov. 2 of this year, according to a former senior National Security Council official. On Sept. 2 (about 60 days prior) President George W. Bush is expected to address the Republican National Convention at Madison Square Garden. It appears that this ‘early September’ attack window is getting more credibility from government sources to the media.
Secondary window: (8/16/04) No change. Between now and Nov 2, 2004. This window is based upon AQ threats to disrupt our national elections. This window could potentially be extended to Inauguration Day in January 2005.
Attack Indicators
8/16/04 An OBL tape (audio or video) is expected to be released very soon. Multiple sources are also reporting that OBL has already given the go-ahead for a new international round of attacks.
8/16/04 As previously reported, there have been communications chatter, internet, and personnel movement changes that imply that something may be afoot.
Iraq
8/16/04 Shi'ite cleric Moqtada Sadr has reportedly been wounded as a result of fighting in Najaf and is reported to be holed up in one of the sacred Shrines in Najaf.
Italy
8/15/04 Security in Italy was increased over the weekend in anticipation of the Aug 15th deadline issued by al-Masri.
8/16/04 - CAIRO, Egypt - A statement released Sunday in the name of an al-Qaida-linked group said the Italian government has "dug its grave by its own hands" after it ignored a warning to withdraw its troops from Iraq by Aug. 15. Sunday's statement said Italy's silence "has proven to the world that there is no difference between a civilian or a military person in Italy."
This is the 6th threat since July 15, the end of a ‘truce’ issued to Europe by OBL. Other threats issued July 2, 16, 26, 28 , 30 and August 5 & 7. Some U.S. officials and some terrorism experts believe Abu Hafs al-Masri Brigades, lacks credibility and has only tenuous ties to al-Qaida.
England
8/16/04 Nothing new to report
Iran
8/16/04 Nothing new to report
Israel
8/16/04 More suicide bomb attacks were prevented in addition to a helicopter rocket strike preempting a rocket attack.
Turkey
8/16/04 Nothing new to report.
Greece
8/16/04 The threat of a terrorist strike has kept millions away from attending the games.
United States
(8/11/04) Discussions on TM and media reports seem to concur in that the AQ has entered a pre-attack phase and perhaps has even set the date and targets and are only waiting the final word from OBL.
2. Attack method.
8/16/04 To summarize the previous discussions and reports, indications are that AQ is planning global coordinated terrorist attacks ranging from assassination(s) of key political leaders in Europe and ME, bomb attacks in Europe and bomb attacks and assassinations in the US. The reported stated purpose of the attacks are to -
1. Damage or destroy the American economy.
2. Influence the American election (anyone but Bush).
3. Exact revenge against US allies for their support for the WOT.
Details of the plan are allegedly contained in the computer data obtained after the capture of Khan in Pakistan. Financial institutions appear to be the current targets. Although there still appears to be an interest in using passenger jets as missiles, it appears that this next round of attacks may involve traditional vehicle bombs. Law enforcement alerts have been issued nationwide for any suspicious activity at private storage facilities, U-haul and related rental companies and fertilizer and bomb component retail outlets. Suspicious behavior regarding emergency vehicles and limousines infer that AQ is evaluating the potential of using these vehicles too.
Personnel
8/16/04 (UPI) -- U.S. intelligence officials say al-Qaida is increasingly using non-Arab scouts, both male and female, some of whom pose as Christians, USA Today said Monday..
8/16/04 More reports in the media about ME men entering the country via Mexico.
8/16/04 IMHO, government reports indicate that AQ has replaced key leadership positions lost during the WOT. These appear to be lower level operatives who have been advanced internally. Prior to 911, OBL had generally unrestricted ability to communicate with his staff. Since 911, OBL has not launched a significant attack outside of Iraq or Afghanistan, the only exception being the 311 Spain attacks (other attacks have occurred, however they are generally thought to be under the authority and direction of a subordinate terror group with a degree of independence from OBL). The big question remaining to be answered is “are the new guys technically proficient enough to pull off a broad ranging attack(s) across multiple continents using multiple methods all while maintaining OPSEC?” Are they up to the standards of the ‘a-team’ OBL had prior to 911? Or is OBL over reaching the resources and capabilities of his staff to pull an even more complex attack off?.
4. Significant meetings canceled:
A. (8/16/04) None I am aware of.
5. Security has been heightened in specific cities
8/12/04 Local hospitals in New Jersey have tightened security after recent warnings of potential terror attacks, including the possible use of ambulances as weapons.
(8/11/04) NYC, N. NJ and D.C. are still at threat level ORANGE. Specifically identified targets include the International Monetary Fund and World Bank in D.C.; Prudential Financial in Northern New Jersey; and Citigroup buildings and the New York Stock Exchange in New York
Additional security has also been implemented the American Stock Exchange, Nasdaq, Morgan Stanley, Lehman Bros., Goldman Sachs, the Federal Reserve Bank, Bear Stearns, the UN, Wachovia, AIG, MetLife and JP Morgan Chase. The TransAmerica building, the well-known pyramid-topped skyscraper and the Bank of America Bldg in San Francisco also were on the computer files captured. However, threat levels were not raised by the DHS for these buildings.
GENERAL: Boston, Philly, Seattle, LA. Trains and buses searched - Significant development in east coast towns. Some of this is in response to the upcoming republican convention. Other major financial office centers in many cities are taking additional precautions.
Ports are getting a lot more security scrutiny. Diving teams are activity looking for mines, Coast Guard turning away ships as necessary. However, this appears to be in part in line with scheduled increased security posture and not necessarily in response to a specific threat.
6. Military operations.
8/16/04 An exercise involving eight nations and the defense of the Panama Canal from terrorism concluded this weekend. The canal training exercises began a week ago with planning, and advanced Tuesday to land and water exercises. They included hundreds of personnel from the army, navy, air force and coast guard. Four merchant ships were contracted as mock threatening vessels. This is at least the second of this kind of exercise conducted since 911
08/12/2004 PETERSON AIR FORCE BASE, Colo. It was a nightmare worst-case scenario. But that's what U.S. Northern Command officials had intended for "Determined Promise '04." The exercise, which ran from Aug. 5-10, was designed to test NORTHCOM's ability to respond to multiple, simultaneous homeland-defense and federal-relief efforts.
The fleet is deployed in the Pacific / Indian oceans, conducting various maneuvers and exercises.
The F-117s are still deployed in S. Korea.
7. Dept of Homeland Scty.
8/13/04 August 12, 2004 This Travel Warning is being updated to inform U.S. citizens that our Mission in Saudi Arabia has gone off Ordered Departure status and is now an unaccompanied post as a result of continued security concerns. Non-emergency employees and all dependents of the U.S. Embassy Riyadh and Consulates General Jeddah and Dhahran were ordered to leave the country on April 15, 2004 and will not be permitted to return until further notice. Due to targeted attacks against American citizens, resulting in deaths, injuries and kidnapping, and the continuing serious threat to their safety while in Saudi Arabia, the Department of State continues to warn U.S. citizens to defer travel to Saudi Arabia. Private Americans currently in Saudi Arabia are strongly urged to depart. This Travel Warning supersedes that of June 23, 2004.
8. Suspicious Domestic Incidents Not Currently Linked to Specific Terrorism Attempts
8/15/04 ARLINGTON, Va. -- A Chicago-bound flight from Ronald Reagan Washington National Airport was evacuated Saturday after suspicious behavior by a passenger, officials said Sunday. Passengers were boarding United Airlines Flight 627 before 6 p.m. when a Middle Eastern man abruptly got off the plane. The passenger was found, but couldn't be questioned immediately because he didn't speak English, Von Walter said. He was turned over to the FBI, who questioned and released him after 10 p.m. Allegedly the man had decided to change his flight plans for personal reasons. .