[deport]

What is the base Republican vote in Illinois? I may be wrong, but I have to believe it's higher than 28%.

---

I don't know what the base is but here's the 2000 exit polling for President in IL.... Also this article states that only some 67% of Republicans chose Keyes....

				GORE	BUSH	BUCHANAN	NADER
	No matter how you voted today, do you usually think of yourself as a:
	% of total		category	% of category
	40		Democrat	88	11	0	1
	28		Republican	11	87	0	2
	32		Independent	49	46	0	4

[NCPAC]

According to that exit polling data, the base is only 28%. Wow. That means Keyes is "averaging" the base with his initial 28% showing. (I say averaging since, according to the article, only 67% of Republicans are backing him at this early date - according to the poll.)

If the poll is anywhere near accurate and currently shows it 67-28, Obama, we're looking at a likely outcome of 69-31, Obama. Even if GWB manages to pull Illinois out of the bag, I don't see Keyes getting over 35%.

[FITZ]

that only some 67% of Republicans chose Keyes....

The same thing I say on the "Bush is losing in the polls" threads --- how on earth can there be a reliable poll today? Who answers their telephones anymore if they have caller ID --- or are at work all day? They can't do a man on the street kind of poll --- that certainly is no good cross section either. Exactly how are these polls made up? How does any pollster even pretend they have a good representative number of anyone? Maybe it's those pop-ups that keep coming up on our screens asking us who we would vote for? Those are the absolute only polls I've seen or heard of lately.

[WillRain]

32% self identified independents?

That's...striking.

If I may engage in some baseless presumption, could much of that apparently high figure be the result of voters being alienated by-
A. an inept GOP; and
B. a corrupt, Machine/black controlled Democrat party?

Is it possible that this is fertile ground for an "outside the box" candidate?