He teaches @ UVA and while I don't agree w/ everything that he wrote, he makes a reasonable argument. Also, he's very evenhanded and doesn't mind taking some jabs at the Dems (see his comments about Kerry). He's not someone who can be dismissed as a left-wing partisan b/c he isn't one. Agree or disagree w/ him, but he does his homework and provides some good analysis.
I agree with your comments. Reading between the lines, I think Sabato is saying that the Bush campaign must portray sKerry for what he is: A tax and spend liberal who wants bigger government, more social programs and less defense spending. Rove needs to go medeival on the guy.
what you say is true - he's thoughtful, he seems analytical and all - but what the others are saying here is correct, he's wrong very often.
right now, on the stump, the best thing Bush has going for him - is Kerry. The soundbites of him that make the news are awful - this criticism of Bush reading to the classroom on 9-11, and this latest blurb about how he would fight a "more sensitive" war on terrorism - both played badly for him in my opinion.
still, its going to be a very close race.