Kerry is NOT an odds on favorite to win the election.The race is tight right now,the GOP Convention has not taken place yet,most people,unlike us,don't even begin to pay attention to politics until after Labor Day;even in a presidential election year.
The country is still divided and while most people long ago made up their minds who they'll be voting for/against,the more people get to actually see and hear Kerry,the less they like him.He didn't even get a Convention bounce!
People who are saying they will vote Kerry are not voting FOR Kerry, but against Bush. So there is some possibility of convincing them not to vote for Kerry.
...but the fact that the race is even close gives me pause...as a strict constructionist I am used to losing at the polls. Ronald Reagan was the last ray of political hope I have experienced...and now a majority of freepers look at a GWB victory with glee, he who is happy to let Ted Kennedy write the education bill when education is clearly not within federal jurisdiction. (see article 1, section 8 and the 10th amendment) and that is just one example of many.