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32,000 Jobs Created in July (UE Rate Down at 5.5%)
CNBC | August 6, 2004

Posted on 08/06/2004 5:30:25 AM PDT by RWR8189

32,000 jobs were created in July. The unemployment rate down at 5.5%

Details to come...

ouch


TOPICS: Breaking News; Business/Economy; Government; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: bush43; bushboom; busheconomy; bushrecovery; ffrhike; goodbyedemocrats; gwb2004; joblessrecovery; jobs; jobsreport; kerrycries; nonfarmpayrolls; payrolls; suicidewatchforwg; tdids; thebusheconomy; uerate; unemployment; unemploymentrate; weredoomed; wgids; wheresdaschele
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To: oceanview
you clearly don't understand that Kerry is going to win this election if the current economic trend continues. $45 oil, bad jobs reports, market closing today at the lows for the year.

Exactly! - These trends are not good! - Period. Though I will say the GWB team should be doing more to get the information on the Household survey out!! (make the public think jobs must be falling somewhere between 36,000 and 600,000) - However, I wouldn't count on the GWB team to get these talking points out -

I find it funny that some on here are saying there is NOTHING GWB can do about oil prices "now" - Yet, when others have been saying that oil prices were "going" to be an issue "months" ago - (these people were called pessimists, trolls and they didn't know what they were talking about!) -

Yet now it is clear, those of us who said oil prices were going to cause a problem....are dead right! -

But what is fearful is those who called other trolls....are now saying there is nothing we can do...so march on....I think this could be there response come NOV 1st (there is nothing we can do now...we are down in the polls...we just have to make sure we all get out and vote....the "magic" can still happen, blah, blah, blah) -

441 posted on 08/06/2004 1:41:28 PM PDT by POA2
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Comment #442 Removed by Moderator

To: Lael

If you would really cross over for ANY reason in a time of national defense nightmare of terror and turn it over to the Liberal Burger's to fight for our country over offshoring you really haven't believed in the cause.
Period.


443 posted on 08/06/2004 2:06:08 PM PDT by WoodstockCat
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To: WoodstockCat

that is true. but the national security issue alone isn't going to carry enough votes to win. for most people, their chance of being hit by terrorists is very low - but the effects of the economy, gas prices, jobs, the level of the stock market and their 401Ks, on their votes is much higher.


444 posted on 08/06/2004 2:32:54 PM PDT by oceanview
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To: oceanview

Whether people buy them or not, everyone on them is not an ebay seller, that's a bullshit description.

Those numbers are not looked at on monthly basis as accurate, and rightly so because the sample is much smaller than the payroll sample. When the revision is done, they usually are the driving force behind revisions up or down and for the actual unemployment rate. Anyone with a head out of the sand lends credence to the numbers...that is different from coverage.

We have no disagreement on how this will be reported. My argument is that the reality is not as bad as it looks.

As far as the market goes, oil has a lot to do with the moves the last couple of days. Short term, the combo of the two isn't great but the underlying economic data continues to be good.

The question we should ask ourselves is (when the TV guys are gloom and doom and the retail investors are bailing on the market and selling, someone is always buying their shares)...who is buying?


445 posted on 08/06/2004 2:40:04 PM PDT by HRoarke (F. John Kerry--Can you trust a man who picks his running mate from the back of the phone book?)
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To: No Income Tax

I think you are confusing CES and Household Survey data.

Table A-5 refers to information collected through the Household Survey, while the increase of 32,000 in nonfarm employment cited in news reports is collected from the CES.

The CES and Household data are completely unrelated and independant from eachother. Each survey misses some workers, and they can come out with wildly different results. The Household survey uses interviews from 60,000 households to extrapolate total employment, unemployment, ect. However the CES uses data from approximately 400,000 employers, and is thought to miss many self-employed persons.


446 posted on 08/06/2004 3:04:52 PM PDT by RWR8189 (Its Morning in America Again!)
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To: WatchOutForSnakes
Horrible, horrible news. Bush is in VERY BIG trouble. This number is beyond bad news, it will probably elect John Kerry president.

It amazes me how people get hysterical over one piece of disappointing news.

Do you also say that one month of good job numbers means Bush will definitely be re-elected?

447 posted on 08/06/2004 4:27:34 PM PDT by Jorge
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To: Jorge

it depends on when it occurs. there are only two more reports to go before the election. The next report is the morning after the Bush convention speech. If that report shows negative job growth, you can kiss any bounce goodbye.


448 posted on 08/06/2004 4:31:49 PM PDT by oceanview
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To: Jorge

I know this is a long thread and it is hard to read all of the posts but it has been stated over and over again in this thread that this is NOT just one month of worse than expected job numbers. It is the second consecutive bad report and with oil prices high chances of a third bad report are high. That is the concern.


449 posted on 08/06/2004 4:39:55 PM PDT by WatchOutForSnakes
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To: POA2
"Again after months of you calling anyone who said Oil Prices are going to be a problem a troll"

Stop right there. I have never once said anything like that. I have frequently pointed out your obvious propensity to dwell on the negative, but I have never mentioned anything about oil prices. Try proving a point without making things up.
Now we have discussed your complaints about the RNC not forming enough 527's. Well, you got your wish this week. We'll see how much they bump up Bush's approval ratings.

450 posted on 08/06/2004 4:55:54 PM PDT by Rokke
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To: hawkaw
I really think this oil stuff is causing big problems.

See my new tagline - straight from Investor's Business Daily.

451 posted on 08/06/2004 5:20:55 PM PDT by snopercod (Nine out of the 10 recessions since World War II have occurred after a big run-up in oil prices.)
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To: Dave S
Most people start new businesses out of desperation, not because conditions are that great. They create these new businesses because due to age and income they are priced out of the market for the jobs that are available.

Do you know me?

452 posted on 08/06/2004 5:31:04 PM PDT by snopercod (Nine out of the 10 recessions since World War II have occurred after a big run-up in oil prices.)
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To: Grampa Dave
Of course the GW backstabbing posters on this thread will never post what would happen if their buddy, moi Kerri was elected.

Grandpa, grow up. Who said I or any of the others are GW backstabbers. Sticking your head in the sand and believing your own rhetoric isnt going to get Bush elected. He's got to deal with the real world. Saying its all a media conspiracy and the Dems fault isnt going to get Bush elected. He's got your vote and he's got mine. We have to convince the squishy independents.

And after all the problems with WMD and Ridges faultering PR efforts this past week at Homeland Security, do you really believe that Bush still has the credibility to redefinine employment gains to his favor? Dont look at that man behind the curtain, look at my new definition of employment. Its not the one we traditionally use but its new and oh by the way it does show my efforts in a better light.

453 posted on 08/06/2004 7:33:22 PM PDT by Dave S
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To: snopercod
Do you know me?

No but those conditions are what "encouraged" me to make the move and go into business for myself 14 years ago. :-)

454 posted on 08/06/2004 7:38:52 PM PDT by Dave S
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To: Coop

Is there anyway to find out the job growth numbers the last four months of Clinton's presidency?


455 posted on 08/06/2004 7:42:48 PM PDT by Hildy ( If you don't stand up for what's RIGHT, you'll settle for what's LEFT.)
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To: RWR8189

Job growth has changed...it's the household numbers that count now, almost 700K last month.....GWB MUST tell the contry that those jobs count


456 posted on 08/06/2004 7:44:30 PM PDT by The Wizard (DemonRATS: enemies of America)
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To: cohokie
because the DEMONRATS don't let GWB count those numbers.....

he needs to force the issue and lead.....they are real jobs....he needs to bring us into the 21st century in counting jobs where they are created, not the counting of the 1920's


457 posted on 08/06/2004 7:47:43 PM PDT by The Wizard (DemonRATS: enemies of America)
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To: StumpyPete

Good point.


458 posted on 08/06/2004 9:59:25 PM PDT by rwfromkansas (BYPASS FORCED WEB REGISTRATION! **** http://www.bugmenot.com ****)
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To: The Wizard

There have been times in the past few months when total employment in the Household Survey has gone down and been more anemic as well. And you didn't hear anyone complaining about total employment decreasing in Household Survey when we adding 250,000+ in the CES during the spring. In other words, you can't have your cake and eat it too.

Both surveys have their flaws, but overall the CES is more scientific, if for no other reason than its uses a sample of 400,000 businesses, while the Household Survey uses only a sample of 60,000.


459 posted on 08/06/2004 10:29:37 PM PDT by RWR8189 (Its Morning in America Again!)
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To: cohokie

Because every month, large numbers of people fall off the charts due to their benefits running out. They are no longer counted.


460 posted on 08/06/2004 10:29:46 PM PDT by ETERNAL WARMING (He is faithful!)
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