Posted on 08/06/2004 5:30:25 AM PDT by RWR8189
Exactly! - These trends are not good! - Period. Though I will say the GWB team should be doing more to get the information on the Household survey out!! (make the public think jobs must be falling somewhere between 36,000 and 600,000) - However, I wouldn't count on the GWB team to get these talking points out -
I find it funny that some on here are saying there is NOTHING GWB can do about oil prices "now" - Yet, when others have been saying that oil prices were "going" to be an issue "months" ago - (these people were called pessimists, trolls and they didn't know what they were talking about!) -
Yet now it is clear, those of us who said oil prices were going to cause a problem....are dead right! -
But what is fearful is those who called other trolls....are now saying there is nothing we can do...so march on....I think this could be there response come NOV 1st (there is nothing we can do now...we are down in the polls...we just have to make sure we all get out and vote....the "magic" can still happen, blah, blah, blah) -
If you would really cross over for ANY reason in a time of national defense nightmare of terror and turn it over to the Liberal Burger's to fight for our country over offshoring you really haven't believed in the cause.
Period.
that is true. but the national security issue alone isn't going to carry enough votes to win. for most people, their chance of being hit by terrorists is very low - but the effects of the economy, gas prices, jobs, the level of the stock market and their 401Ks, on their votes is much higher.
Whether people buy them or not, everyone on them is not an ebay seller, that's a bullshit description.
Those numbers are not looked at on monthly basis as accurate, and rightly so because the sample is much smaller than the payroll sample. When the revision is done, they usually are the driving force behind revisions up or down and for the actual unemployment rate. Anyone with a head out of the sand lends credence to the numbers...that is different from coverage.
We have no disagreement on how this will be reported. My argument is that the reality is not as bad as it looks.
As far as the market goes, oil has a lot to do with the moves the last couple of days. Short term, the combo of the two isn't great but the underlying economic data continues to be good.
The question we should ask ourselves is (when the TV guys are gloom and doom and the retail investors are bailing on the market and selling, someone is always buying their shares)...who is buying?
I think you are confusing CES and Household Survey data.
Table A-5 refers to information collected through the Household Survey, while the increase of 32,000 in nonfarm employment cited in news reports is collected from the CES.
The CES and Household data are completely unrelated and independant from eachother. Each survey misses some workers, and they can come out with wildly different results. The Household survey uses interviews from 60,000 households to extrapolate total employment, unemployment, ect. However the CES uses data from approximately 400,000 employers, and is thought to miss many self-employed persons.
It amazes me how people get hysterical over one piece of disappointing news.
Do you also say that one month of good job numbers means Bush will definitely be re-elected?
it depends on when it occurs. there are only two more reports to go before the election. The next report is the morning after the Bush convention speech. If that report shows negative job growth, you can kiss any bounce goodbye.
I know this is a long thread and it is hard to read all of the posts but it has been stated over and over again in this thread that this is NOT just one month of worse than expected job numbers. It is the second consecutive bad report and with oil prices high chances of a third bad report are high. That is the concern.
Stop right there. I have never once said anything like that. I have frequently pointed out your obvious propensity to dwell on the negative, but I have never mentioned anything about oil prices. Try proving a point without making things up.
Now we have discussed your complaints about the RNC not forming enough 527's. Well, you got your wish this week. We'll see how much they bump up Bush's approval ratings.
See my new tagline - straight from Investor's Business Daily.
Do you know me?
Grandpa, grow up. Who said I or any of the others are GW backstabbers. Sticking your head in the sand and believing your own rhetoric isnt going to get Bush elected. He's got to deal with the real world. Saying its all a media conspiracy and the Dems fault isnt going to get Bush elected. He's got your vote and he's got mine. We have to convince the squishy independents.
And after all the problems with WMD and Ridges faultering PR efforts this past week at Homeland Security, do you really believe that Bush still has the credibility to redefinine employment gains to his favor? Dont look at that man behind the curtain, look at my new definition of employment. Its not the one we traditionally use but its new and oh by the way it does show my efforts in a better light.
No but those conditions are what "encouraged" me to make the move and go into business for myself 14 years ago. :-)
Is there anyway to find out the job growth numbers the last four months of Clinton's presidency?
Good point.
There have been times in the past few months when total employment in the Household Survey has gone down and been more anemic as well. And you didn't hear anyone complaining about total employment decreasing in Household Survey when we adding 250,000+ in the CES during the spring. In other words, you can't have your cake and eat it too.
Both surveys have their flaws, but overall the CES is more scientific, if for no other reason than its uses a sample of 400,000 businesses, while the Household Survey uses only a sample of 60,000.
Because every month, large numbers of people fall off the charts due to their benefits running out. They are no longer counted.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.