32,000 Jobs Created in July (UE Rate Down at 5.5%)

CNBC | August 6, 2004

[Reagan Man]

This isn't good news for the Bush-Cheney campaign.

[TomEwall]

Oil is already coming down. Really?

[finnigan2]

Thanks for the added encouragement, but MSNBC has been claiming for days now that any job growth under 200,000 in July would be a disaster - and that's the way they're going to play it until August figures arrive. In short, a full month to pound away on negativity.

[hobbes1]

It was briefly, before the f*ng flashfire in texas.

It had dipped to 41, and change.

[TomEwall]

The way to spin the news is:
1) The household report is positive
2) The UE number is down.

However, the important thing, IMO, is what oil prices do. If oil prices come down, I think everything will be fine. If they stay high, that could be a big problem.

It's annoying that a guy who has not ideas whatsoever could get elected.

[Dave S]

Over half a million Americans went to work for THEMSELVES in July. Isn't that the AMERICAN DREAM?

You are of course assuming they have clients. They may or if they are just starting (which the data suggests) then they probably dont. Finding customers typically takes several months. Calling on potential customers is work but it isnt PAID work until a month or two after you complete the work for the new client. In the mean time you are paying for your healthcare as well as all other expenses out of your pocket.

[TomEwall]

Well I can't imagine the flashfire thing should have a lasting impact. How big a deal is the YUKOS thing? How long should that take to get resolved? When does the demand for oil start to go down? September?

I'm afraid the jobs report next month might be poor too. Plus the stock market has been taking a hit. I actually don't think the stock market is a problem as I think it will rally on lower oil prices, assuming that happens. I just hope things are turning around by the time the debates occur.

[Cold Heat]

I haven't heard a push from Bush about "making the tax cuts permanent" in awhile. That's one of the many things that is weighing on my mind. I blame the GOP in Congress for not pushing more tax cuts on our TV sets.

The tax cut issue has been overcome for the time being, largely because congress is on vacation.

The RATS can and will block any attempt to make the cuts permanent as they have.

Bush has indeed mentioned it a time or two, along with the lack of a Energy bill, but the media does not cover these sound bites. It is largely a matter of perception.

Mid summer is not a traditional growth time. That is why I questioned the 225,000 expectations. Fuel prices are also weighing heavily on growth.

Bush need to tie the lack of a Energy bill with the fuel costs and then blame the congressional dems for the numbers. This is what I would do, because it is the truth of the matter.

[DJtex]

1. The Unemployment rate of 5.5% is simply the percent of the workforce that is getting Unemployment Insurance right now. If every week we get 300-320k new Unemployment claims yet the rate does not go up then it means that 320k people got off Unemployment Insurance last week also. It's a very fluid job market.

2. New workers and folks who have exhausted their Unemployment Benefits are not counted in the Unemployment percentage.

3. The Labor Dept. job creation number only counts total employment of companies with 200 employees or more. That is why the Household Survey diverges so much right now. Part-time, self-employed, or new workers in companies of less than 200 employees will never show in the Labor Dept. numbers.

4. The Household Survey shows over 1,000,000 more new workers than the 1,500,000 new jobs in the Labor Dept. numbers show.

5. The Summer sucks. If GDP is still rising, then the ecomomy is still healthy and will spin off more wealth and employment in the future.

[Dave S]

I am talking about starting a business. Business owners are AFAIK not counted as part of the work force for purposes of unemployment. I guess that folks like Bill Gates, Rupert Murdoch, Donald Trump, etc. are bad for the economy???

Oh yes they are. THey are the CEOs, Presidents, Owners, Principals, etc. If you get a survey and are asked if you are employed, are you goign to say, no, I own a business? NO.

If there are 600,000 more people "employed" on the household report, most if not all of them are self-employed, they are not the employee of some entreprener who has opened a new factory, blah,blah. If you are self employed, then you are the boss and you are also the janitor. I know. I fulfill both functions and all in-between.

[FourtySeven]

Good points!

[GraniteStateConservative]

The DOW is now under 10,000 - (it's August I know....we'll wait until Sept to worry) - Yep, we here are always "waiting" for more time .......Because then the "magic" will happen.

Sounds like Red Sox fans like myself-- somehow or the other magic will happen and we'll run off a winning streak (maybe not tonight, but next week, or next month-- definitely by then!) and we'll overtake the MFY and win the division and do great things in the playoffs. POA2 is right. The time to turn this around is yesterday.

[Warren_Piece]

If you are self employed, then you are the boss and you are also the janitor. I know. I fulfill both functions and all in-between.

It's a pretty safe bet you're not in the motivational speaker business...

[gipper81]

We could muddle along with a good economy for the majority of those who have jobs, or head into a recession, or go the stagflation route.

STAGFLATION is a Jimmy Carter economic term which means - relatively high inflation, high unemployment and low growth (GDP).

The current and forecasted economic data do not support any 'stagflation' scenario.