Posted on 08/06/2004 5:30:25 AM PDT by RWR8189
32,000 jobs were created in July. The unemployment rate down at 5.5%
Details to come...
ouch
I bet the unemployement rate in wash is lower than the national average. In virginia, I think it is less than 2%
One thing I've learned over the years.......don't sit around an gripe. DO something.
I think some of these fellas just LIKE to gripe. It would be out of character for them to actually try to solve the problem.
That's one of the reasons I admire President Bush so much. He's a problem solver...........just like the Gipper. Great men, both.
I've already seen one analyst on CNN (I'm Canadian and not allowed to see Fox) use the words "double dip."
We should be cautious in extrapolating broader trends from real estate and construction activity. It's not so much an indication of increasing wealth as it as indication of investment strategy.
At a certain level, it actually indicates timidity -- people are willing to invest in the hardest of all assets (real estate) because they're afraid of riskier investments in manufacturing, developing intellectual property, or other things which create lots of jobs.
It's also the logical reaction to the end of loose money -- people are desperate to break land before long-term rates move up by 100 basis points or more, which is going to happen sooner or later.
I've been hearing the radio news babe blast the numbers all morning (GLOOM AND DOOM)!! Then she played a clip of a guy saying that 600,000 self-employment jobs were added? Anyone else catch that? I believe a 5.5% UE rate is lower than anything under Clinton.
There is a growing disconnect between the 'employer' and 'household' surveys. The July household survey shows an increase of 625,000 jobs compared to 32,000.
It's always a good idea to be consistent when using a series of numbers - my question concerning empoyment growth since 1/2001 was about the 'employer' survey & everyone responded with 'household' survey #'s. The 'employer' survey shows a net loss in jobs since 1/2001 - that was my point because posters were stating the jobs created in that survey since last August. Just trying to be consistent, that's all.
There's no way to predict what they mean at this point, and they DON'T include small business starts, so they're incomplete to begin with.
And it does NO good to assume it's all negative just because we 'hoped' for better. JMHO.
Wow. That's a lot to draw from a one (or two depending on how you see June) slowdown in job GROWTH.
No disagreement from me that ridiculously high oil prices are a problem if something isn't done.
For the time being, I will point out that productivity is incredibly high right now and earnings continue to be good, as is overall growth. If by "big" players, you mean institutional investors, they aren't going anywhere because they aren't so foolish as to speculate based on short term hiccups. What they do is hedge against unexpected news by allocating across asset classes (they use short term panic to lock in gains or look for new opportunities). If you define the big guys as the product pushers on CNBC, you're half right (someone is ALWAYS bullish and someone is ALWAYS bearish). Woe to the small investor that does anything based on what they say.
As far as the stock market recovering...did that last year. We're out of the recession, so keeping us there will be tough. Security concerns are a big issue, as they represent a previously unaccounted for portfolio risk but they can be incorporated somewhat into considerations.
Too late to keep it short, but don't forget the panic, gloom and doom and mocking by Dems when we came up with 11000 new jobs a few months ago. I'm sure the world was ending then too but then we went on a string of adding hundreds of thousands of jobs a month.
Wow. That's a lot to draw from a one (or two depending on how you see June) slowdown in job GROWTH.
No disagreement from me that ridiculously high oil prices are a problem if something isn't done.
For the time being, I will point out that productivity is incredibly high right now and earnings continue to be good, as is overall growth. If by "big" players, you mean institutional investors, they aren't going anywhere because they aren't so foolish as to speculate based on short term hiccups. What they do is hedge against unexpected news by allocating across asset classes (they use short term panic to lock in gains or look for new opportunities). If you define the big guys as the product pushers on CNBC, you're half right (someone is ALWAYS bullish and someone is ALWAYS bearish). Woe to the small investor that does anything based on what they say.
As far as the stock market recovering...did that last year. We're out of the recession, so keeping us there will be tough. Security concerns are a big issue, as they represent a previously unaccounted for portfolio risk but they can be incorporated somewhat into considerations.
Too late to keep it short, but don't forget the panic, gloom and doom and mocking by Dems when we came up with 11000 new jobs a few months ago. I'm sure the world was ending then too but then we went on a string of adding hundreds of thousands of jobs a month.
Unemployment was over 10% for just a ten months in the early 80s. Ever. That's the only time, since we began recording data, that it was at or above 10%.
Ignoring facts doesn't help us. Economists--both for Bush and against--agree that the real measure of the economy's strength is job growth, not unemployment.
The problem here is the numbers. 32,000 is terrible for an economy that has "turned the corner."
So the 625,000 number is real. That is ASTONISHING!!! Why is it being spun as horrible news today? Over half a million Americans went to work for THEMSELVES in July. Isn't that the AMERICAN DREAM? You don't lose a job and say "Damn, I guess I'm forced to work for myself." If I could afford to work for myself I'd be doing it. It takes money and commitment to work for yourself. I wonder if the self-employment numbers were skyrocketing in Carter's term?
I just get ticked about this whole election because in my mind...W should have it in a walk. Shouldn't even be a contest with all he's accomplished, given extraordinary circumstances, and yet the sheeple just don't see it.
Don't worry...I'll go for my walk, clear my head, and start making the calls again rallying the W troops.
W in '04!
Coffee on my shirt and keyboard...thanks a lot! :)
It is up to elaine chow chow chow to emphasize these numbers.
Sorry, didn't mean to express my opinion on a public forum. I didn't know it was privately owned by you. My humblest apologies.
I will try to stop being so gosh darn pessmistic when I hear this.
I try to remind myself that this is just one day's data...and that one little piece like this isn't a disaster. But, it is easy to just let the neg outweigh the positives sometimes.
I think today's data is serious and could be bad for Bush, but not if he becomes a tiger on the issue so people see him as trying to do something BEYOND just making the tax cuts permanent.
If that is all he has, I don't know if it is enough.
I'm not talking about temporary work off the books. I am talking about starting a business. Business owners are AFAIK not counted as part of the work force for purposes of unemployment. I guess that folks like Bill Gates, Rupert Murdoch, Donald Trump, etc. are bad for the economy??? It just doesn't make sense to me that people are able to just say, "oh well, no jobs out there, guess I'll just quit looking," without some other means of support.
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