Let me help you with some of this. Keyes ran statewide in Maryland against a reasonable articlute white liberal, and lost big. Now if he runs in Illinois, he will be running against a quite articulate black liberal, with a few tweaks, and will lose even bigger. In neither case will Keyes break 10% of the black vote. Does that help?
Except for the Illinois election hasn't happened yet. We have never seen how Keyes does running against a black liberal --- I don't know if Obama is articulate -- I'll take your word for it --- but I doubt he is any match for Keyes as far as being articulate. I think there are more than 10% Conservative blacks. Maybe not in Illinois --- but the Illinois Republican party apparently chose Keyes for some reason.