Natch, CT, you know all about Karl Rove. By this time, he has taken apart Kerry's speech. Rove knows exactly what he's doing here, and Kerry and his people will be taken by surprise, of that I'm sure.
In addition, Kerry has made a huge strategic blunder in ressurecting the "Secret Plan" strategy of 1968. Kerry is not Nixon. Nixon probably already had the outlines of Vietnamization in his head. Nixon wouldn't have been stupid enough to give HHH that kind of rope, and could have dazzled the nation with details while befuddling them with bullsh#t long enough to get past November. Nixon had Kissinger at his side, with Rocky's blessing, as well. Kerry has, well, Rand Beers and Richard Holbrooke.
You do the math.
I get the impression that this week's results in Gallup (Bush up four among likelies, and only a four point plus bounce in Newsweek) give Bush the impression that he can go to the country and beat John Freaking into the ground. For the first time since Saddam was caught, I feel a strategic opening in the terrain for Bush.
Finally, Kerry is a victim of timing. The jihadists are in the background, the silent voter in this election. Their very existence reinforces the notion that America is at war. That plays to Bush's strengths of decisiveness and sure-handedness.
You point to Bush's knack for pulling rabbits out of the hat. I say that he does this because he is patient, and he knows how to wait. Compare this to Bush the Elder's hapless campaign in 1992. Bush is successful because he lets the enemy advance across a terrain of his choosing (the war), and then waits until the enemy has overextended himself. Bush doesn't attack, he counterattacks.
Time and again, Bush reminds me of Erich von Manstein, who believed in mobile defensive operations. His most brilliant counterstroke was known as the "Third Battle of Kharkov".
The Red Army had advanced, fresh from its victory at Stalingrad. They had Army Group South on the run. Just as the Russians were about to advance deep into the Ukraine, Manstein sprung his trap:
The Germans had retreated to that start line you see there; the Russians had advanced that far. Manstein's offensive began while the Russian offensive was underway, taking advantage of the forward momentum of the Sixty Ninth and Sixty Second armies. The Germans flanked the two armies and drove around them, displacing them and capturing thousands of Russian soldiers. An SS Panzer Corps took Kharkov itself; the city was littered with abandoned T-34-76 tanks. The Russians never knew what hit them.
Kerry is in the position of the hapless commanders of the 69th and 62nd Armies. Lucky for him, he doesn't have to answer to Uncle Joe. He doesn't know the terrain he has so confidently advanced into is of Bush's choosing. He's listening to Bob Shrum and the rest tell him about the President's reelect numbers. He doesn't realize that the terrain under his feet is shifting.
John Kerry doesn't hear metaphorical German tanks off in the distance; because, as CT has pointed out time and again, he keeps his own counsel to excess. He really believes he's the smartest man in the room. It will be his undoing.
Be Seeing You,
Chris