ok...but individual states numbers still show an electoral college win.
I note that TradeSports also shows that:
Ohio, Florida, W.Virginia and all "must win" states going for Bush.
Yes, I noticed that too. The individual states are all predicted to go as in 2000, except New Hampshire which is predicted to go for Kerry. That would have been a winning combination for the Dems in 2000 but with reapportionment it won't be in 2004. I suppose that it is explained by the much larger volume in the overall winner market than in the state-by-state market. Maybe there are some arbitrage opportunities here...