Posted on 07/20/2004 2:37:30 AM PDT by pookie18
Conservative Democrat Zell Miller sides against his own party more often than most; he's endorsed President Bush for re-election and will speak at the GOP convention. (He's also a friend of TAS, having delivered the keynote address at a dinner last fall where financial benefactors mingled with those of us whom they benefact.) There are some who say that Miller's seat in the Senate is really filled by a Republican. When he retires next year, it will become official.
The Democrat expected to win today's primary, freshman congresswoman Denise Majette, is far too liberal to be elected in Georgia, where the Democratic Party took its hardest hits in 2002. That makes the Republican primary doubly important.
The candidate that makes conservatives swoon is Herman Cain. A one-time Burger King executive who sold Godfather's Pizza in December after owning it for 15 years, Cain has called for abolition of the IRS and repeal of the income tax, replacing it with a national sales tax, one of the two competing high-growth dreams of supply-siders. (The other, of course, is the flat income tax; not coincidentally, Cain backed Steve Forbes in the 2000 primary.) The author of several business books, the charismatic Cain makes $25,000 per appearance as a motivational speaker. Oh yes: He's black. If elected, Cain would be the first black senator from the Deep South since Reconstruction.
The race has focused mostly on abortion; though all three candidates -- Cain and Representatives Mac Collins and Johnny Isakson -- are pro-life, questions of purity are magnified in a state where, according to Georgia Right to Life, six percent of voters vote solely on abortion; the percentage is no doubt larger in a Republican primary.
As the front-runner, Isakson has taken hits from the right from both Cain and Collins, who oppose abortion except when the health of the mother is threatened; Isakson also favors exceptions in cases of rape and incest. Isakson has been hammered for various compromises on the issue, including voting to allow privately funded abortions on U.S. military bases abroad.
The focus on abortion makes strategic sense for Cain and Collins: Isakson lost his last bid for a nomination for Senate in 1996 when, in what many consider a fatal political error, he ran an ad touting his opposition to a Human Life Amendment.
The latest polling by the Atlanta Journal-Constitution shows Isakson with 46%, Cain with 16%, and Collins with 8%. There is word from Georgia that candidates' internal polling shows the race much closer. If Cain holds Isakson below 50%, it will force a two-way run-off. If that happens, despite a significant fundraising gap, Cain may have a fighting shot at grabbing the nomination.
Here's hoping.
No way Cain wins today, but a good chance that he can force a runoff. I think Isakson's ugly attacks of the last week may bite him a little today.
I hope Isakson falls WAY short of 50%.
Praying my heart out for Herman Cain.
I have the most unexpected people saying the are voting for Cain. One friend said she was voting for Isakson, and I told her to vote for Cain. She said she would! Other than that it has been all Cain—and that is from lots of different counties.
Were the internal polls that far off for Cain?
Go Cain!
Isakson is a known commodity - so he is at or near his number. It is most likely that Cain & Collins numbers will go to whoever wins between the 2 of them.
IF Isakson is 45 or over and cain is below 30, Isakson has the advantage. If Isakson slips below 45% and/OR Cain tops 30% then the Runoff is wide open because Cain will pick up most or all of Collins support.
I tend to agree with your assessment.
Advantage to Cain in a run-off PROVIDED
he has enogh money and exposure. I think
he'd dust Isakson in a debate.
Have you heard ANYTHING at all that might
indicate blacks are crossing over to vote
for Cain?
As I said above -- Isakson is a known, he will not pull much more in a runoff than he will today. Cain will have the chance to grab most of Collins support. If Cain is within 15 points today, then he has at worst a 40-50% chance of winnning a runoff.
I am in Alabama so I am not close enough to the campaigns to get a feel for crossovers, but seeing as the Blacks have an almost certain primary winner in Majette, I would expect most to stay on the D plantation today or not vote at all.
I hope Cain wins just to show that Republicans WILL elect a black, even in the "evil ol' South" if they have all the right qualifications and they have a hellova better chance to move up in the Republican party too. Amazing that so many blacks have stayed with the Demonrats for so long, knowing full well they're being played like a cheap fiddle. Just my opinion.
I saw the candidates on the news Channel 11 NBC in Atlanta today at lunch. They ask Isakson how it looked at he said "We have not done any polling since Sunday."
Reporter: "And what did it say."
Isakson: "We are in the hunt."
That does not sound very confidant to me. I think he is very worried about their numbers.
Cain was also on the segment and he said he plans to have a runoff if not win it outright.
Collins was on there as well, but I did not hear his comments.
It is just strange to me that I have heard so many people think he is the best candidate, and almost no one I've heard has spoken in favor of Isakson. . . . Maybe it is just different parts of the state or something?
Did you see him in the debate on GPTV? e did well, I think—though I only caught the last little bit.
Thanks!
ON another note, add ESPN to the list of Preseason #1's for UGA. HOW BOUT THEM DAWGS!
No, sadly, I didn't get to see the debate.
Herman Cain needs more time, money and exposure.
He is the best man running for elected office
anywhere in the whole USA, bar none.
I love betting on long-shots. GO CAIN!!!!
Well, he's had excellent exposure in my county. And his ads have been all over FoxNews for months. Also, he has been to a TON of churches all around GA. He has worked it well, and has invested wisely.
Something interesting may well happen today! We can hope . . .
Same here
I am off to the polls now to vote for Cain.
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