Latest from Bush pollster Matthew Dowd:
As the post-primary season winds down and Kerry's VP selection and convention approach, I wanted to share with you what we should expect polls to show in early August.An examination of Gallup polls in presidential elections since 1976 reveals that a challenger's vice presidential selection and nominating convention can have a dramatic (if often short-lived) effect on the head-to-head poll numbers. In fact, historical analysis suggests John Kerry should have a lead of more than 15 points coming out of his convention…
1. An average of the most recent public polls shows the race is a dead heat.
2. Assuming that Kerry enjoys the average challenger's bounce (15.4% since 1976), we should expect the state of the race to swing wildly to his favor by early August.
Democrats themselves expect Kerry to have a sizeable lead after his convention. On Face the Nation on Sunday, DNC head Terry McAuliffe said, `We are about to pick our vice presidential nominee. We're about to go into a convention of four days and I think once we finish up our convention, I think you're going to see Senator Kerry anywhere from eight to twelve points up.’”
Posted at 03:34 PM
'The Corner' in National Review, July 5, 2004)
http://www.nationalreview.com/thecorner/corner.asp
I am not a gambling man, unless you count playing horses for a living as gambling, but I am prepared to make a wager with you on this prediction of yours.
If you truly believe that Kerry will win, then put your money where your mouth is. I'll take Bush. You take Kerry. This is a match-race made in heaven. As for the size of the bet, name your poison, and consider it covered.
All winnings from this bet will be donated to Free Repuclic.
Sounds like this one is in the bag. Time for the 'Rats to put up their feet and start coasting. Maybe they need to divert more money to the Congressional races, since Kerry has it in the bag...
The optimal result is a desperately fought campaign, leading to a twenty-point Bush victory. It never makes sense to let up, even for a second.
"Bush Overtakes Kerry Nationally" (CPOD) [registered voters]
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1165162/posts
this piece is a crock
So I guess that means we're
DOOMED!
http://www.fedex.com/us/about/advertising/tvads/dramawm.html?link=4
I feel confident that a majority of Americans are so disgusted with the actions of the Democratic Party and their minions that they would vote for any candidate that does not come from the DNC
Dream on, Shane Cory, dream on.
Funny things is, Bush can pretty much lose all of these swing states and still be ahead in Electoral College votes. Notice how the author doesnt brake down the rest to get his (her?) estimate.
If Kerry is gonna get elected, he will have to win all of the swing states, not just the liberal leaning ones (which dont forget, could still go to Bush), and also a few of the Republican stomping grounds. This is where he has no chance.
"I don't know how Richard Nixon won. Nobody I know voted for him." - leftist alert.
(In Bugs Bunny's voice) "Looks like ya got me, Doc...Good-bye cruel, cruel, woild..."
Someone should inform this guy that Gore carried all but Florida of those states. If they all reversed from last time it would be a net gain for Bush.
Spin reports to cover vote fraud.
These were the identical reports and reasoning why the republicans were going to loose.
In FL the unions went into debt, the DNC superfunded, and even cherry picked a candidate to "take over" florida as REVENGE. (BWAHAHAHHAHAHA)
Since there is no coverage of the republican or conservative media in the major print sources, it is hard to see how any positive Bush story will see the light of day in the comming months.
..."because, not a single person I know is going to vote for Bush".
And in the following week of November, look for some very interesting things to start happening around the country.
How dare this Clymer presume to estimate for me. This bears nothing similar to my estimate.
Not according to the numbers I've seen. Bush is in fact currently leading in the Electoral College by a rather nice margin.
Anybody who would write the above can hardly be considered an objective commentator on the election.
Any American with an ounce of decency who isn't brain-washed by Dem propaganda know that Bush has been an excellent and effective President, and the most trustworthy leader we have in the war on terrorism.