From NEIN: www.homelandsecurityus.com
8 July 2004 - When does the window end for the truce between Europe and Bin Laden?
by Laura Mansfield
As Europe’s window of opportunity for truce offered by Osama Bin Laden draws to a close, US Department of Homeland Security Secretary Tom Ridge took the stage at a press conference in Washington to warn Americans that Al Qaeda plans is in the planning or operational stages of major attacks against the US homeland.
Although Bin Laden’s truce offer was only to Europe, and explicitly excluded the United States, much attention has been paid to the perceived threat increase as the truce ends.
In reality, the truce offer to Europe was probably intended only to allow Al Qaeda to focus their attentions on the theatre of operations in Iraq, Afghanistan, and Saudi Arabia, rather than to give Europe breathing space.
In his speech aired first on April 14, 2004, Osama Bin Laden said: "The door of reconciliation is open for three months of the date of announcing this statement."
The truce offer was valid for three months, according to Osama Bin Laden’s speech, first aired on Al Arabaya TV on April 14.
Many have pegged July 14 or July 15 as the date when Europe's opporunity at a truce will end.
However, a careful analysis of Bin Laden’s previous actions and of the speech shows that those dates are probably not accurate.
It is very unlikely that Bin Laden intended three “Gregorian” months; it is far more likely that he intended three “Islamic”, or lunar, months.
If we take the date of airing of the speech as the beginning of the three month window, and use the first broadcast date of April 14, we can calculate the actual ending date. April 14 on the Islamic calendar is the 24th day of the month Safar. Three months from Safar would be the 24th day of Jumada al Awil, or Jumada I.
The 24th of Jumada al Awil falls this year on July 11.
Bin Laden's tape also included the following paragraph:
"The greatest rule of safety is justice, and stopping injustice and aggression. It was said: Oppression kills the oppressors and the hotbed of injustice is evil. The situation in occupied Palestine is an example. What happened on 11 September [2001] and 11 March [the Madrid train bombings] is your commodity that was returned to you."
Bin Laden does not normally focus on dates in this manner. Historically, Al Qaeda has not tried to "hit" dates; they take their successes where they can get them. But considering that the truce ends on July 11, extra vigilance is probably warranted.
711
You're fast! I had JUST finished writing that LOL
I just copied this from Jill's site (homelandsecurityus.net). It's a posting from 7/3/04. It refers to a strike "next Sunday" which at the time may have been considered the following day (7/4/04). However, next Sunday is 7/11/04: