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Bill Buckley, you and I know the war was a mistake
The Hill ^ | June 28, 04 | Josh Marshall

Posted on 06/29/2004 7:00:20 PM PDT by churchillbuff

“With the benefit of minute hindsight, Saddam Hussein wasn’t the kind of extra-territorial menace that was assumed by the administration one year ago. If I knew then what I know now about what kind of situation we would be in, I would have opposed the war.”

Those words are William F. Buckley’s, from an article in yesterday’s New York Times marking Buckley’s decision to relinquish control of the National Review, the flagship journal of the conservative movement he founded 50 years ago.

Also out on the newsstands now, in The Atlantic Monthly, is an essay Buckley wrote describing his decision to give up sailing after a lifetime covering the world’s oceans and writing about it.

Mortality is the backdrop of both decisions, as the 78-year-old Buckley explains. In the Atlantic essay he describes his decision to abandon the sea as one of assessing whether “the ratio of pleasure to effort [is] holding its own [in sailing]? Or is effort creeping up, pleasure down? … deciding that the time has come to [give up sailing] and forfeit all that is not lightly done … brings to mind the step yet ahead, which is giving up life itself.”

There is certainly no shortage today of people saying the Iraq venture was wrongheaded. But Bill Buckley is Bill Buckley. And perhaps it is uniquely possible for a man at the summit or the sunset of life — choose your metaphor — to state so crisply and precisely what a clear majority of the American public has already decided (54 percent according to the latest Gallup poll): that the president’s Iraq venture was a mistake.

So with the formal end of the occupation now behind us, let’s take stock of the arguments for war and see whether any of them any longer hold up.

• The threat of weapons of mass destruction (WMD).

To the best of our knowledge, the Hussein regime had no stockpiles of WMD on the eve of the war nor any ongoing programs to create them. An article this week in the Financial Times claims that Iraq really was trying to buy uranium from Niger despite all the evidence to the contrary. But new “evidence” appears merely to be unsubstantiated raw intelligence that was wisely discounted by our intelligence agencies at the time.

Advocates of the war still claim that Saddam had “WMD programs.” But they can do so only by using a comically elastic definition of “program” that never would have passed the laugh test if attempted prior to the war.

• The Iraq-al Qaeda link.

To the best of our knowledge, the Hussein regime had no meaningful — or as the recent Sept. 11 Commission staff report put it, “collaborative” — relationship with al Qaeda. In this case too, there’s still a “debate.” Every couple of months we hear of a new finding that someone who may have had a tie to Saddam may have met with someone connected to al Qaeda.

But as in the case of WMD, it’s really mock debate, more of a word game than a serious, open question, and a rather baroque one at that. Mostly, it’s not an evidentiary search but an exercise in finding out whether a few random meetings can be rhetorically leveraged into a “relationship.” If it can, supposedly, a rationale for war is thus salvaged.

The humanitarian argument for the war remains potent — in as much as Saddam’s regime was ruthlessly repressive. But in itself this never would have been an adequate argument to drive the American people to war — and, not surprisingly, the administration never made much of it before its other rationales fell apart.

The broader aim of stimulating a liberalizing and democratizing trend in the Middle East remains an open question — but largely because it rests on unknowables about the future rather than facts that can be proved or disproved about the past. From the vantage point of today, there seems little doubt that the war was destabilizing in the short run or that it has strengthened the hands of radicals in countries like Iran and, arguably though less clearly, Saudi Arabia. The best one can say about the prospects for democracy in Iraq itself is that there are some hopeful signs, but the overall outlook seems extremely iffy.

Surveying the whole political landscape, it is clear that a large factor in keeping support for the war as high as it is is the deep partisan political divide in the country, which makes opposing the war tantamount to opposing its author, President Bush, a step most Republicans simply aren’t willing to take.

At a certain point, for many, conflicts become self-justifying. We fight our enemies because our enemies are fighting us, quite apart from whether we should have gotten ourselves into the quarrel in the first place.

But picking apart the reasons why we got into Iraq in the first place and comparing what the administration said in 2002 with what we know in 2004, it is increasingly difficult not to conclude, as a majority of the American public and that founding father of modern conservatism have now concluded, that the whole enterprise was a mistake.


TOPICS: Editorial; Foreign Affairs; Government
KEYWORDS: assume; babblingmarshall; betterreadthanred; broadstrokemarshall; buckley; buckleyisrealdeal; buckleywbathwater; chamberlain; chamberlainbuff; crybabymarshall; delusionaljosh; dictionary4dummies; disinformatzia; divideconquer; hitpiece; ignorantcantread; illiterateright; iraq; joshacommie; joshaleftie; joshclintonmarshall; joshkerrymarshall; joshleftwingmarshall; joshmaomaomao; joshmarshallleftie; kerryspokesman; leftistbait; leftistdrivel; lockstep; lookitup; marshallwantsjob; marshamarshamarsha; marshlmanifsto; neoconsposthere; nologichere; nothinglikechurchill; ohcanuck; outofcontext; readabook; readentirely; readfirst; rujoshingme; senile; shirttailmarshall; strawmanargumt; thundermug; troll; whatshesaying; williamfbuckley; wrongo; yellowjournalism
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To: churchillbuff

"add Buckley (along with Tom Clancy and a number of military brass) to the list."

I'm sure that even now President Bush is planning his resignation speech. How could he stand up to such formidable brainpower. Rumor has it he has had Wolfowitz Rice and Rumsfeld taken out and shot, now that churchillbuff has weighed in.


461 posted on 06/29/2004 11:39:33 PM PDT by hinckley buzzard
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To: BykrBayb; Zechariah11
Ahh, thank you! I see now. :-)
462 posted on 06/29/2004 11:44:17 PM PDT by lonevoice (Some things have to be believed to be seen)
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To: lonevoice

You're welcome.

Are you enjoying the show in here as much as I am? It's a real mud pit.


463 posted on 06/29/2004 11:46:18 PM PDT by BykrBayb (5 minutes of prayer for Terri, every day at 11 am EDT, until she's safe. http://www.terrisfight.org)
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To: Texasforever

To: SerpentDove
Is any criticism of GWB considered backstabbing?

Well.......yes.

457 posted on 06/29/2004 11:31:29 PM PDT by Texasforever (When Kerry was asked what kind of tree he would like to be he answered…. Al Gore.)


Rather severe litmus test.


464 posted on 06/29/2004 11:47:57 PM PDT by Sabertooth (Mohammedanism is an evil empire.)
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To: Sabertooth

Nope just giving the poster what he/she was looking for.


465 posted on 06/29/2004 11:48:55 PM PDT by Texasforever (When Kerry was asked what kind of tree he would like to be he answered…. Al Gore.)
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To: Texasforever






Nope just giving the poster what he/she was looking for.

Well, that's your strong suit... you're a people pleaser.


466 posted on 06/29/2004 11:52:29 PM PDT by Sabertooth (Mohammedanism is an evil empire.)
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To: samantha
*It is common knowledge in Washington that he has been over indulging in adult beverages for decades,and it obviously damaged his gray matter*

That, of course, is a lying smear on the Godfather of the modern Conservative movement. I would ask you to provide a link to this "common knowledge" you claim to possess, but I know what a waste of typing time THAT would be.

*George Will is a pompous ass that stays on a show with a girlie man host that disrespects him every chance he gets just for his little crumb of face time*

LOL...too, TOO, funny. George Will is perhaps one of the finest conservative minds around today--and has been for about a generation now. I have cause to disagree with him now and again--as I do regarding the issue at hand--but to label him as a "pompous ass" who only lingers around on "a show" for some "little crumb of face time" is simply ignorant.

*Age has taken it's toll. It is time for young pups to take their place*

Oh, really? Just whom did you have in mind? ...snicker...
467 posted on 06/29/2004 11:53:01 PM PDT by A Jovial Cad ("I had no shoes and I complained, until I saw a man who had no feet.")
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To: Dont Mention the War; Bonaparte
Hear, hear, yet another literate voice of reason.

Wondering if I have to stay up this late every night waiting ..."

468 posted on 06/29/2004 11:58:18 PM PDT by bd476 ("Marco Polo If You Can," "Who's On First?" Just two of many great novels by WFB)
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To: dread78645

"Football combines the two worst things about America: it is violence punctuated by committee meetings."
~George F. Will



George Carlin's Difference Between Football and Baseball

Baseball is a 19th century pastoral game.
Football is a 20th century new world order paramilitary power struggle.

Baseball is played in a park...the baseball park.
Football is played in a stadium, sometimes called Soldier Field or War Memorial Stadium.

The baseball field is...a diamond.
The football field is a gridiron.

Baseball begins in the spring, the season of new life.
Football begins in the fall, when everything is dying.

In football, you wear a helmet.
In baseball, you wear a cap!

Football is concerned with downs. What down is it? Oh, it's the last down.
Baseball is concerned with ups. Who's up? Are you up? He's up! I'm up!!

In football, you get a penalty.
In baseball, you make an error...oops!

In football, the specialist comes on to kick something.
In baseball, the specialist comes in to relieve somebody.

Football has tackling, clipping, spearing, piling on, personal fouls, late hitting, sacking, and unnecessary roughness.
Baseball has . . . the sacrifice.

Football is played in any kind of weather--rain, snow, sleet, hail, fog, major catastrophe, can't see, don't know if there's a game going on, mud on the field, can't read the uniforms, can't read the yard markers--doesn't matter, the struggle will continue.
In baseball, if it rains, we don't go out to play. I can't go out, it's raining out!!

Baseball has the s   e   v   e   n   t   h     i   n   n   i   n   g     s   t   r   e   t   c   h   .
Football has the twominutewarning.

And, of course, the objectives of the games are also completely different.


In football, the object is for the quarterback, sometimes called the field general, to be on target with his aerial assault, riddling the defense by hitting his receivers with deadly accuracy in spite of the blitz, even if he has to use the shotgun. With short bullet passes and long bombs, he marches into enemy territory, balancing this aerial assault with a sustained ground attack which may consist of power plays designed to punch holes in the forward wall of the enemy's defensive line.
In baseball, the object is to get home . . . safe.


469 posted on 06/29/2004 11:59:58 PM PDT by sully777 (Our descendants will be enslaved by political expediency and expenditure)
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To: hinckley buzzard
Hinckley Buzzard said: " To the best of our knowledge, Josh Marshall is an adolescent ignoramus. "

Can't agree in toto, HB. The tragedy is greater - Marshall is a middle-aged ignoramus.

470 posted on 06/30/2004 12:05:12 AM PDT by bd476 ("Marco Polo If You Can," "Who's On First?" Just two of many great novels by WFB)
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To: A Jovial Cad

Another voice of reason. Well said, AJC.


471 posted on 06/30/2004 12:09:32 AM PDT by bd476 ("Marco Polo If You Can," "Who's On First?" Just two of many great novels by WFB)
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Comment #472 Removed by Moderator

To: nopardons

Have you been trying to reason with closet libs on other threads? They seem to be tracking you down and pouncing on you for no apparent reason. Did I miss something?


473 posted on 06/30/2004 12:19:08 AM PDT by BykrBayb (5 minutes of prayer for Terri, every day at 11 am EDT, until she's safe. http://www.terrisfight.org)
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To: Keith
LOL!

I predict a large meteor will hit planet Earth and after that no one will care who won the November election.

The Kerry prediction was based on knowing about the power of the Clintons and something about their pathology, and also knowing Kerry wanted it really, really bad, and had access to a lot of money.

The word went out to the media to sabotage Dean, who they had previously coddled, because Dean did not fit the Clinton plans. They tolerate Kerry, who kept McAuliffe at the DNC, as he had to cut a deal with the Clintons to keep himself from being sabotaged, although he's such a conceited p**** he probably doesn't realize that's how it came down. And they expect him to lose in November so Hillary can claim the nomination in 2008.

If Bush looks definitely beatable, Hillary may go on the ticket as Veep, or Kerry may have an unfortunate accident and she will step in to carry the party banner.

Kerry will have no qualms about using an ugly story against Bush as an October surprise if he isn't doing well to skewer Bush's base, just as Gore had no qualms about starting voter fraud prep in the Spring of 2000 and pulling out the DUI in the weekend before the election and contesting the election after the vote counts. Both are nakedly ambitious.

The media has great power and they are nakedly going to try to undercut Bush, because they are liberals who have been out of power (House, Senate, and Presidency) and HATE it, especially with FOX breathing down their exclusive right to brainwash the American public.

Everything being equal, Kerry would have the edge. But never underestimate the ability of a ponderous, pompous p**** to expose himself for what he is, and for some of the American electorate to catch on. Gore did that in the debates.

Bush and Rove are savvy and they know how important it is for the future of the country, the survival of the country and our economy, that they win. And they know they have to get out the vote and poll check like they did in 2002, even more so.

So, you have to balance the Clintons pulling strings against the media chomping at the bit, and Kerry's naked ambition against Bush's savvy. And then factor in that some news is manufactured, like the prison scandal, and some is real, like 9/11, and that the unforeseen real or manufactured events in the months before the election, can totally skewer things.

Everything being equal, I'd say Bush would narrowly lose because many conservatives are not to be trusted in a knife fight as you all have proven here on FR, but there is another factor.

Last election I believed Bush would lose because of voter fraud, so for the last months before the election I was on my knees begging God to have mercy on America and give us Bush, and on election night as the electoral count moved West and I told my husband we couldn't win without Florida, he began to cry and promised God he'd go with me to church once a month if God would just let Bush win, and two minutes later Florida was put back in the too close to call column.

In the final analysis, Sodom went under the fire and brimstone because they couldn't find 10 righteous men in the city.

Does America deserve Kerry? Maybe so. But after he drops his A-bomb on the President in the week before the election, will I be the only one left praying for America and for Bush?

474 posted on 06/30/2004 12:24:45 AM PDT by patriciaruth
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To: BykrBayb
I have NO idea whatsoever who A Jovial Cad is.I don't recall EVER replying to him.It appears that I'm just KOOK PAPER tonight.

If you've missed something,than so have I. :-)

475 posted on 06/30/2004 12:25:29 AM PDT by nopardons
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To: A Jovial Cad

I've never been banned.


476 posted on 06/30/2004 12:26:32 AM PDT by nopardons
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To: A Jovial Cad
You would be ill advised to pester my good friend nopardons. Doing so, directly implies pestering me, and a sharp response.

Regards, Ivan

477 posted on 06/30/2004 12:27:13 AM PDT by MadIvan (Ronald Reagan - proof positive that one man can change the world.)
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To: MadIvan

Many thnaks,Ivan. :-)


478 posted on 06/30/2004 12:31:09 AM PDT by nopardons
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To: nopardons

Yeah, right...whatever you say...(snicker)...perhaps we can just call them "time outs" then?...LOL...too, TOO, funny...


479 posted on 06/30/2004 12:31:59 AM PDT by A Jovial Cad ("I had no shoes and I complained, until I saw a man who had no feet.")
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To: churchillbuff
Clancy and Buckley are not military. They're CIA.

Therein lies the difference.

This war would have been waged by a democrat or a Republican. It was inevitable due to Iraq's collusion with certain power players.

But Bush is seen as too much the Evangelical Christian, so he's getting pushed aside.

He's still getting my vote.

480 posted on 06/30/2004 12:32:47 AM PDT by Dr. Eckleburg (There are very few shades of gray.)
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