Posted on 06/29/2004 7:00:20 PM PDT by churchillbuff
“With the benefit of minute hindsight, Saddam Hussein wasn’t the kind of extra-territorial menace that was assumed by the administration one year ago. If I knew then what I know now about what kind of situation we would be in, I would have opposed the war.”
Those words are William F. Buckley’s, from an article in yesterday’s New York Times marking Buckley’s decision to relinquish control of the National Review, the flagship journal of the conservative movement he founded 50 years ago.
Also out on the newsstands now, in The Atlantic Monthly, is an essay Buckley wrote describing his decision to give up sailing after a lifetime covering the world’s oceans and writing about it.
Mortality is the backdrop of both decisions, as the 78-year-old Buckley explains. In the Atlantic essay he describes his decision to abandon the sea as one of assessing whether “the ratio of pleasure to effort [is] holding its own [in sailing]? Or is effort creeping up, pleasure down? … deciding that the time has come to [give up sailing] and forfeit all that is not lightly done … brings to mind the step yet ahead, which is giving up life itself.”
There is certainly no shortage today of people saying the Iraq venture was wrongheaded. But Bill Buckley is Bill Buckley. And perhaps it is uniquely possible for a man at the summit or the sunset of life — choose your metaphor — to state so crisply and precisely what a clear majority of the American public has already decided (54 percent according to the latest Gallup poll): that the president’s Iraq venture was a mistake.
So with the formal end of the occupation now behind us, let’s take stock of the arguments for war and see whether any of them any longer hold up.
• The threat of weapons of mass destruction (WMD).
To the best of our knowledge, the Hussein regime had no stockpiles of WMD on the eve of the war nor any ongoing programs to create them. An article this week in the Financial Times claims that Iraq really was trying to buy uranium from Niger despite all the evidence to the contrary. But new “evidence” appears merely to be unsubstantiated raw intelligence that was wisely discounted by our intelligence agencies at the time.
Advocates of the war still claim that Saddam had “WMD programs.” But they can do so only by using a comically elastic definition of “program” that never would have passed the laugh test if attempted prior to the war.
• The Iraq-al Qaeda link.
To the best of our knowledge, the Hussein regime had no meaningful — or as the recent Sept. 11 Commission staff report put it, “collaborative” — relationship with al Qaeda. In this case too, there’s still a “debate.” Every couple of months we hear of a new finding that someone who may have had a tie to Saddam may have met with someone connected to al Qaeda.
But as in the case of WMD, it’s really mock debate, more of a word game than a serious, open question, and a rather baroque one at that. Mostly, it’s not an evidentiary search but an exercise in finding out whether a few random meetings can be rhetorically leveraged into a “relationship.” If it can, supposedly, a rationale for war is thus salvaged.
The humanitarian argument for the war remains potent — in as much as Saddam’s regime was ruthlessly repressive. But in itself this never would have been an adequate argument to drive the American people to war — and, not surprisingly, the administration never made much of it before its other rationales fell apart.
The broader aim of stimulating a liberalizing and democratizing trend in the Middle East remains an open question — but largely because it rests on unknowables about the future rather than facts that can be proved or disproved about the past. From the vantage point of today, there seems little doubt that the war was destabilizing in the short run or that it has strengthened the hands of radicals in countries like Iran and, arguably though less clearly, Saudi Arabia. The best one can say about the prospects for democracy in Iraq itself is that there are some hopeful signs, but the overall outlook seems extremely iffy.
Surveying the whole political landscape, it is clear that a large factor in keeping support for the war as high as it is is the deep partisan political divide in the country, which makes opposing the war tantamount to opposing its author, President Bush, a step most Republicans simply aren’t willing to take.
At a certain point, for many, conflicts become self-justifying. We fight our enemies because our enemies are fighting us, quite apart from whether we should have gotten ourselves into the quarrel in the first place.
But picking apart the reasons why we got into Iraq in the first place and comparing what the administration said in 2002 with what we know in 2004, it is increasingly difficult not to conclude, as a majority of the American public and that founding father of modern conservatism have now concluded, that the whole enterprise was a mistake.
I'm not sure you where you get that quote, but what's your problem with it?
Alberta's Child was arguing that everyone thought that Iraq would fall in three weeks before the war began, when the actual argument was whether it would be in a couple of months, or many months to a couple of years. So he pulled that Rumsfeld quote out, without a date for when it was said, to refute me.
You forgot France. :) Austria and Ireland too. West Germany, Switzerland, and The Netherlands were 50-50. Some in Latin America were democratic then, off and on. Which ones exactly, I don't know. Chile was except for the Allende and Pinochet era. Costa Rica has always been.
Thank you, I will rememer to stay far upwind. He he he!!
What were those besides Grenada?
BUMP post #208 !
CONGRATS,Joe,well done,you actually found it all on your own.Wasn't that easy?I'm just SO proud of you. :-)
Including BILL BUCKLEY
I think Saddam Hussein would have found someway to strike at the United States, one way or another, because he hated the fact that we won Gulf War I.
Saddam may have even been the force behind Sept 11th, and was smart enough to let Osama take full credit.
We are getting their heads right in Iraq and lets not forget the rest of the Arabs, like Col. Kadafy.
Standing outside in Chicago in the winter in a wind tunnel generated by those skyscrapers is a near death experience.
This gives the other poster the right to call him names and attack him?
CONGRATS,Joe,well done,you actually found it all on your own.Wasn't that easy?I'm just SO proud of you.
Thanks for that nopardons. But you failed to answer my question.
Thanks.
Now I am in agreement with you.
Even when one is wearing many layers,a fur hat and coat,boots,two pairs or mittens (or gloves and mittens)and the required scarf wound around so that ONLY one's eyes are left uncovered. :-(
So then, Reagan, some 15 years older than Buckley, had even less relevance to you?
What a silly, self-important, MTV style statement.
IAE, I canceled my National Review subscription in 2002, after it stopped being a conservative publication. Today I recommend The American Conservative.
-PJ
Still and all,we've had a good run of weather here in Conn.,recently,too.
I second those thoughts.....
No need to get snippy about it,"honey".:-)
Well when you have a Soviet agent doing the negotiations on behalf of the United States....
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