Not to be a Monday morning...err night quarterback, but I think that this was to be expected. Polls had a the race tied with a good number of undecideds. The conservative party is less than a year old, and Canadians by their nature like to go with the 'safe' option. The swing voters simply felt that they didn't know enough about the conservatives, so they stayed with what they knew. The result is bad, but I think that it is a floor, not a ceiling. In time I think that Canadians will become more comfortable with the new conservative party, and it will increase its standing in ontario in the next election, which will probably be soon.
That's the comfortable explanation. The more honest one is most Canadians really prefer the Left and will shun a government that promises lower taxes, less regulation, and greater individual freedom. Ronald Reagan's brand of conservatism doesn't have any takers in Canada east of Manitoba.