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To: GiveEmDubya
There is no question that the Election Prediction Project's predictions favored the incumbents (usually the Liberals) in close races. They've updated their website since this morning to throw Cardigan, P.E.I. to the Liberals. I cited the project because they have a decent track record, and were the only place I found riding-by-riding and provincial breakdows.

Professional Seat Prognostications:

Election Prediction Project
121 Liberal
105 Conservative
52 Bloc Quebecois
29 NDP
1 Independent

Laurier Institute (Professor Barry Kay)
114 Conservative
108 Liberal
59 Bloc Quebecois
26 NDP
1 Independent

Ekos
117 Liberal
109 Conservative
55 Bloc Quebecois
27 NDP

Ipsos Reid
115-119 Conservative
99-103 Liberal
64-68 Bloc Quebecois
22-26 NDP

National Post Columnist Andrew Coyne's "Collective Wisdom" Entries
122 Conservative
106 Liberal
57 Bloc Quebecois
22 NDP
1 Independent

FreeDominion.ca Election Prediction Thread

Feel free to post others.
41 posted on 06/28/2004 9:23:25 AM PDT by conservative in nyc
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To: conservative in nyc

I posted this on another thread a few days ago, as an American outsider looking in:

My seat prediction:
Alberta: CPC (28), Lib (0)
[Kilgour's loss the big upset, Annie-Get-Your-Guns is toast]

BC: CPC (27), Lib (4), NDP (4), Ind (1) {Chuck Cadman}
[I don't buy some of those BC Election Prediction calls for
a second]

Sask: CPC (9), NDP (4), Lib (1)
[Larry Spencer running as an Ind will throw the seat to the NDP, Churchill River goes CPC]

Man: CPC (7), NDP (4), Lib (3)
[Glen Murray will lose in Charleswood, Joy Smith will win in Kildonan]

Ontario: CPC (51), Lib (46), NDP (9)
[Capobianco wins in Etobicoke-Lakeshore + much better results for the CPC in and out of the 905]

Quebec: BQ (59), Lib (16)
[Helene Scherrer, Robert Lanctot, etc. are all toast. Montreal might be the only place Liberals have seats in the province after tonight, save a few spread out elsewhere.]

NB: CPC (5), Lib (4), NDP (1)
[Herron, Savoy & Scott all lose]

NS: CPC (4), Lib (4), NDP (3)
[Brison may hold on, then again, he may not]

PEI: Lib (3), CPC (1)
[MacAulay loses]

NF: Lib (5), CPC (2)
[Barnes unfortunately loses--but by a much closer margin than was expected]

Territories: Lib (3)

FINAL:
CPC (134)
Lib (89)
Bloc (59)
NDP (25)
Ind (1)

But enough about this, I'm eager to see the REAL results!


44 posted on 06/28/2004 9:57:29 AM PDT by GiveEmDubya (We Need a New Reagan Revolution)
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