USA Today, for once, said it well. This movie will turn existing Bush haters into more virulent Bush haters. I do not see it having too much of an effect on swing voters - however, it is part of a broader effort to try and chip at swing voters a few at a time - hence the broad-scale liberal offensive - if the liberals send out thousands of propaganda messages and each of them move a few voters, then eventually it amounts to a measurable change.
What we need to do is to quit worrying so much about idealogical rifts within the right wing and make sure that we counter the B.S. wherever and whenever it is spewed, to push affected swing voters back into the Bush column. Freepers are for the most part superb wordsmiths - and we all need to saturate the media and the blogsphere with letters that counter Moore's propaganda and paint the liberals, not Bush, as the liars. And, since the libs are basically trying to re-write the past, the best approach is to do a bit of research and resurrect the history that the libs are trying to hard to forget - and use the liberal's own words to discredit them.
I believe that the Dems are playing a stupid game with this movie (stupider than usual, anyway). They're not going to turn Bush voters into Kerry voters, but they might actually turn Kerry voters into Nader voters. The "swing" voters who are actually plugged in; paying attention to the issues, aren't going to buy this rabid drivel. Swing voters are generally moderates, and this movie won't entice any moderates leftward.
That said, this film is political advertising and is a political donation, and should be subject to the restrictions of CFR.