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Third Parties on Right Could Be Problem for Bush
Reuters ^ | 6/21/04 | Rolando Garcia

Posted on 06/21/2004 5:41:56 PM PDT by freedom44

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Moses Murphy was as Republican as they come. The 27-year-old former Marine always voted a straight ticket and his Jeep Cherokee sported three "Bush-Cheney '04" bumper stickers.

But two months ago as the Boardsman, Ohio, resident was surfing the Internet, he came across the Web site for the Constitution Party, a small, conservative group still struggling to be on the ballot in every state.

Off came the Bush paraphernalia and now Murphy's Jeep is plastered with stickers for Michael Peroutka, the Constitution Party's little-known presidential nominee.

Media attention has focused on Ralph Nader as a potential spoiler to presumptive Democratic nominee John Kerry, but President Bush could face a similar threat from third party candidates on the right.

The Constitution and Libertarian parties believe they could siphon away enough disenchanted conservatives to tip a close election.

For Murphy, Bush's proposal to grant amnesty to illegal immigrants living in the United States was the final straw.

"We can't keep letting illegals come in; we need troops on the border," Murphy said in a telephone interview. "(Bush's) views no longer reflect my views, and I need to vote my principles."

The party occupying the White House is typically more prone to disgruntled ideologues bolting for a third party, said Lawrence Jacobs, director of the 2004 Elections Project for the Humphrey Institute at the University of Minnesota.

And hardline conservatives have no shortage of gripes with the president they helped elect. Topping the list is the dramatic increase in federal spending, especially the $500 billion new Medicare entitlement for prescription drugs Bush pushed through Congress, said Paul Weyrich, head of the Free Congress Foundation and a leading conservative activist.

Weyrich said grassroots conservatives "have a real problem with this administration's out of control spending."

TIPPING THE BALANCE

But it is unclear whether this grumbling on the right will translate into votes for the Libertarian or Constitution party nominees. In 2000, the Libertarian nominee received only about 385,000 votes or 0.36 percent, and conservative commentator Pat Buchanan won about 450,000 or 0.42 percent. By contrast, Nader, running from the left, took almost 3 million votes or 2.74 percent and possibly swung the election to Bush with a strong Florida showing.

Any defections from Bush's base would be "minuscule" said Stuart Rothenberg, editor of the Rothenberg Political Report, and the policy gripes of Washington political elites do not necessarily resonate among the Republican rank-and-file.

"Spokesman for the conservative movement see it as their job to grumble" when politicians on the right begin to stray, Rothenberg said.

However, even a handful of defections in key states could tip the balance. For Bush to have a hope of winning, Rothenberg said, his support among Republicans cannot dip much below 90 percent.

Unlike Nader, who was on 43 state ballots in 2000 as the Green Party nominee and is struggling to match that this year, the Libertarian nominee is typically on the ballot in all 50 states, Jacobs said.

The Constitution Party was on the presidential ballot in 42 states in 2000.

Libertarians have already proven they can decide the outcome of close elections. In the 2002 South Dakota Senate race, the Republican challenger lost by about 500 votes, with the Libertarian candidate receiving more than 3,000.

That same year, Libertarian candidates in the Wisconsin and Oregon gubernatorial races received 11 and 5 percent respectively, far exceeding the Democrat's margin of victory.

Bush lost both Oregon and Wisconsin by less than a percentage point in 2000, and both will be in play this year.

Swing states like New Hampshire and Nevada may also be fertile ground for Libertarians, Jacobs said.

But the Libertarian and Constitution party platforms could be an obstacle in peeling away conservative votes from Bush.

Both sound familiar conservative themes of slashing government and lowering taxes, but they also advocate the immediate withdrawal of U.S. troops from Iraq, and the Libertarians are socially liberal, supporting abortion rights and drug legalization. A general rule of thumb, Rothenberg said, is that about half of the voters who support third parties are outsiders who would not vote if their candidate was not running.

But if his candidacy does siphon away enough conservatives from Bush to put Kerry in the White House, Libertarian presidential nominee Michael Badnarik says that is fine with him. There is little difference between the major parties, he said, and playing the spoiler in a presidential election would greatly enhance Libertarians' national profile.

Peroutka, the Constitution nominee, said a Kerry victory could even help the conservative cause by prompting Republicans in Congress, who have approved Bush's spending increases, to oppose similar measures proposed by Kerry.


TOPICS: Culture/Society; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: conservatives; constitutionparty; libertarians; michaelperoutka; peroutka; thirdparty
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To: sarasmom

As I said in Freepmail, I didn't want to hijack the thread. If clicking on URLs is beyond you, that's too bad. Your nastiness doesn't make for a cordial exchange, anyway.


121 posted on 06/21/2004 8:31:44 PM PDT by gcruse (http://gcruse.typepad.com/)
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To: monday
I am NOT,in any way,shape,manner,nor form trying to get you to change your vote.Neither am I doing anything other than laughing AT you and your delusions."Principles"? You imagine that you have some and that I have none? Oh that's IS funny. You're one of the best laugh inducers on this thread.:-)

Go...run away and just keep on telling yourself how principled and brilliant you are,whilst I laugh my socks off at you and than GOD, that nobody has to count on you for anything.

122 posted on 06/21/2004 8:35:44 PM PDT by nopardons
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To: sarasmom
Anyone who thinks they have to shore up their rant via FReepmail must have a really threadbare argument anyway. ;-)
123 posted on 06/21/2004 8:35:57 PM PDT by Cultural Jihad
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To: Cultural Jihad

Like those who cherry-pick quotes from the FFs,post them as refutation,and then get huffy,when on called on doing so. LOL


124 posted on 06/21/2004 8:37:44 PM PDT by nopardons
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To: Lunatic Fringe

"the extreme religious right"...Aren't they pre-disposed to vote for bush and if so why isolate them?


125 posted on 06/21/2004 8:37:47 PM PDT by Jasper Willowtree
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To: gcruse
And George HW Bush was a shoo-in. Perot was too bizarre to have an effect on a presidential election. Third parties are irrelevant.

No, he wasn't a shoo-in. Perot got double digits. I expected him to, as did many others. HW Bush didn't deserve a second term. IMHO.

Keep on dancin' and whistlin' and maybe it will work out. I mean, it's not like the 2000 election was close or anything.

Your sarcastic remarks make no difference to me. The facts are that the Constitution Party and Libertarian Party have complete nobody's running this year, and they won't have the effect discussed by this article.

126 posted on 06/21/2004 8:41:23 PM PDT by SunStar (Democrats piss me off!)
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To: freedom44
This is Reuters wishful thinking.

The Constitution Party is irrelevant.

The Libertarian Party will take far fewer voters than they have in the recent past. Those people (like myself) who share much in common with the LP positions on domestic issues will never vote for the Party. Why? Simply because in the era of terror and Islamofacism the LP is insane when it comes to national defense, foreign policy and the war on terror. The notion that we can become "fortress America" and withdraw from the World is absurd. Open borders? Are you kidding?

This election is too important to play games. I have many misgivings about the GOP and this White House. However, outside the war on terror, all pales in significance.

127 posted on 06/21/2004 8:43:21 PM PDT by davidtalker
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To: monday
Yeah, That's great. Do a vote which sends a message that will only be mentioned a couple of times on the news and the result can only be found through a deep Google search. Whatever message these votes send is usually ignored in Washington and in your state capitol.
128 posted on 06/21/2004 8:44:00 PM PDT by Hillarys Gate Cult ("Read Hillary's hips. I never had sex with that woman.")
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To: Hillarys Gate Cult

except in razor thin situations like florida 2000 where if buchanan got 8 (eight) extra votes per county algor would be president...


129 posted on 06/21/2004 8:49:56 PM PDT by Jasper Willowtree
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To: gcruse
ROTFLMAO!
Since you found it appropriate to reference the content of your FReepmail to me,in your desire to "not hijack the thread" I feel free to reference my response to it.
I dont click on links whose source URL I am unfamiliar with.
I don't care to read your blogsite to ascertain your "feelings" on the subject, when a single specific factual example of the oppression you have endured under AG John Ashcroft was what I requested.
If it was possible for you to comply with my polite request, I assume you would have done so.
I guess in your opinion, it must be "nasty" for anyone to ask for actual facts instead of "feelings".
Cordially, and based solely on available facts, you have zero credibility in deriding AG Ashcroft, IMHO.
But have a nice night, anyway!
130 posted on 06/21/2004 9:07:26 PM PDT by sarasmom (Sometimes, I wish liberals had beliefs, so I could desecrate them. (spok))
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To: Hillarys Gate Cult

as marginal or as splinter-prone you deem the const. party to be, they could resonate dynamically with extreme religious conservatives and strict constitutionlist in the bible belt...and if they could cost a strategic state or two, like fl, they could be sending more than a message...i say: bring 'em back home...


131 posted on 06/21/2004 9:10:33 PM PDT by Jasper Willowtree
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To: sarasmom
Okay....

Here's an excerpt. These are some facts...

Repression's point man, John Ashcroft, overturned Janet Reno's hands-off approach to state medical regulation, and has only recently been rebuked for overstepping his authority: The 'fifty laboratories of democracy' concept resists a national board of 'czars.'

The 'under God' controversy, sexual freedom laws, gay marriage, the 'Ten Commandments' rulings, point to a future of respect for the individual and his liberty free from victimless criminalization and petty moralizing.

In a day when 'Republican' has little relation to 'conservative,' it's no surprise 'normal' Americans are experiencing a Columbian shock. This isn't India, Captain, it's the New World.

132 posted on 06/21/2004 9:27:26 PM PDT by gcruse (http://gcruse.typepad.com/)
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It's interesting to see how many sheeple-on-the-Right willingly participate in fragmenting the conservative vote by voting for the Conservative party de jour. No wonder we can't get rid of the Liberals. It's the voters, stupid.


133 posted on 06/21/2004 9:36:30 PM PDT by Consort
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To: California Patriot

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/backroom/1126568/posts?page=1

Idiocy? Have you ever bothered to read the founding platform for the Republican Party? (Above) Read it and tell me how many Republicans come anywhere close to those dictums. Yet you feel the need to consider those of principle idiots? The idiots are the ones who keep voting for the same side after they've been betrayed time and time again. Read it and weep. That is why the CP is now number three and growing faster than the other two parties. People are just sick and tired of being sold out.


134 posted on 06/21/2004 10:02:23 PM PDT by ETERNAL WARMING (He is faithful!)
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To: California Patriot
They get to feeeel goooood about themselves, which is apparently all that matters to them, not whether their actions are fruitful and successful and actually do good in the world.
135 posted on 06/21/2004 10:07:10 PM PDT by Cultural Jihad
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To: ETERNAL WARMING

Yeah, but I think many are also sick and tired of having to live in the real world. Conservative third parties have had absolutely no political impact in modern American political history. Perot had an impact, but 1) he wasn't a party, but a personality; and 2) his issues were not ideological in nature. George Wallace had an impact, but again, as a potent personality; it was him, not his party.

It all comes down to whether you think Bush is preferable to Kerry. Anyone who denies that Bush is preferable (however flawed) is simply too stupid or too unhinged from reality to debate with.


136 posted on 06/21/2004 10:19:58 PM PDT by California Patriot (California Patriot)
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To: freedom44
The 27-year-old former Marine

I wonder if he knows that Peroutka wants to cut and run from Iraq ....

137 posted on 06/21/2004 10:36:28 PM PDT by JohnnyZ (Yes, I do think I'm funny, why do you ask?)
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To: MindFire; bayourod
You really have no clue about conservatism if you think the john birchers and CIS, and FAIR and nubersUSA are 'liberal'.

Some of us conservatives don't wish to share the title with organizations that dance all over the racism line. And the "blame everything on the Mexicans" lines those organizations sometimes espouse is clearly over the line and is a serious taint that we do not wish to have associated with us.

138 posted on 06/21/2004 10:46:27 PM PDT by JohnnyZ (Yes, I do think I'm funny, why do you ask?)
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To: Papatom
Last two presidential elections I vote the Constitution Party's presidential candidate. Maybe the GOP will get the message.

So ..... what do you like about the Constitution candidate this time around? Cutting-and-running in Iraq? or surrendering to Osama?

139 posted on 06/21/2004 10:48:37 PM PDT by JohnnyZ (Yes, I do think I'm funny, why do you ask?)
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To: MindFire

Yes President Bush has done and will do some things I don't like. But Kerry will do EVERYTHING I don't want done.

A vote against Bush is a vote FOR Kerry. Only idiots can't see that.


140 posted on 06/22/2004 3:24:43 AM PDT by SendShaqtoIraq (,)
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